Friday, August 16, 2019

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 19th Aug 2019

Medium Term Trend:  Down (Changes to Up above 11365)

Finding Support: Nifty opened down below 11K levels on the back of carnage in US stocks and made a low of around 10930 levels however buying support emerged yet again at lower levels pushing Nifty back above 11K levels. It made a high of around 11070 levels and closed at 11050. Up 20 points.

We have continuously been saying that its possible that some sort of near term bottom is formed already at 10780 levels. We had also mentioned that if levels around 10900 holds then we can see 11K + levels once again. We saw Nifty bouncing from 10900 levels on Wednesday and even today Nifty bounced back sharply form 10930 levels and todays upmove assumes a lot of significance since it has come inspite of Dow falling by 800 points. This shows market is building some sort of strength.

Just to take a step back, we went bearish in Nifty once 10985-11K levels were broken earlier this month as it was an imp level from long term perspective however the nature of fall witnessed below 11K levels didn't inspire much confidence about a sustained bearish move and the fact that weekly close was back above 11K levels suggested that break of 10985 was probably a false break hence change in our stance too.

We expected markets to take some support at 10850-10900 levels which actually happened and markets moved to 11100 levels. Now that markets have moved above 11K levels we need to see a move above 11175-11190 levels followed by a move above 11365 levels. If Nifty can manage that then we can see a further sustained towards much higher levels.

For now, in nutshell, we continue to believe that probably a short term bottom is done at 10780 levels and as long as 10900 holds we can assume that markets can move up from here. On the upside Nifty will face stiff resistance at 11100 and 11190 levels. Once these levels are crossed the next level to watch out for will be 11365 and crossing above 11365 will be a very big positive and could pave for much higher levels for Nifty in times to come. On the downside 10900 levels is a very important support and if its broken then probably 10800 could be tested again. Traders with long position can continue to hold with a SL of around 10900 levels.


Happy Trading

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