Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11800)
6th day & Counting : Nifty opened flat and made a quick dash towards 11360 levels but Bears once again pounced and pushed Nifty all the way down to 11240 levels. It finally closed @ 11250 down 20 points.
Yesterday we had mentioned even though 11300-325 is broken we need to see if Nifty sustains below 11300 and goes on to break 11230 levels. While Nifty did close below 11300 it managed to defend 11230 and on the intraday charts it even posted a higher high and higher low. So for immediate term 11230 - 11360 or 11200-11360 becomes a crucial range.
Market has been falling continuously and today was the 6th consecutive day, historically max we have seen markets moving in one direction 9-10 days so a bounce back is likely in next 2-3 days, now how far that bounce will last is a different question altogether.
For now though markets have closed below 11300 but since we have a higher high & a higher low we need to see more weakness & a break below11230 to conclude further. If that happens then the chances are we heading down to 11125-11100 levels but we should be seeing some sort of bounce ( and not just intraday) soon. Now that bounce might come from current levels or slightly below hence long positions can still be carried ( if not exited already) with the same SL and if it triggers then wait for Nifty to fall around 11100 and initiate buy in small qty again at lower levels.
As far as Nifty OI is concerned markets continue to be pretty light and starting Aug series with just 1.7crore as OI. We have seen in past that whenever markets are light they fail to move down in a big way.
Happy Trading
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