Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 21st Oct 2022

 Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal below 16750

Nifty @ 17560: Nifty ready to take-off?

Nifty In the past post we had mentioned "Nifty is giving sign that correction is maturing and markets are looking for an excuse to breakout from this correction. Continuous strength from here is likely to push Nifty back towards 18K and 18500 levels"

We had also mentioned that-"..........in case market continue to see a move above 17400-500 zone then it is possible that we see a similar rally even this time too (will not be surprised to see a new high above 18500 levels in that case)."

Nifty has added 250+ points in last 3 trading sessions and has successfully managed to close above 17450 levels which has now prompted us to change the overall market direction to UP. bears had a small window of opportunities, but they failed to pull Nifty down in last 3 trading sessions. They way market is trading now is giving strong indications that some sort of base is being formed (or already formed) which can push markets up from here. Consolidation we are seeing are around 17500 is indicative of that only. We can continue to see 200-300 point drop (intradayor it my last 1-2 trading sessions) but eventually market should be able to pull higher from there. Traders can and should utilise the dips as fresh buying opportunities (ofcourse with strict SLs).  Next (small) resistance for Nifty is at 17650 and strong support exists at 17400 levels.

Happy Trading!

 

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 18th Oct 2022

 Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal above 17450

Nifty @ 17311: Nifty beginning to exhibit strength.

Nifty has been in a long consolidation since oct last year when the prices had touched 18500 levels. Since then markets have failed to move above it inspite of making several attempts. However, on the lower levels, we have also seen lots of supports coming in. US markets were virtually making a new low every day, yet our markets have managed to outperformed US markets by a big margin.

Now looking at most recent charts, there is a likelihood that correction we are witnessing is getting matured & markets can open a fresh leg on the upside. If markets start trading over 17425-450 levels in coming 1-2 trading sessions then that would be a good sign for the bulls.

Nifty Daily

Looking at chart above, the last 8 weeks (~40 trading sessions) are largely matching the pattern observed in June/July 2018, when after a strong rally, the markets went into a sideways to bearish zone for 8 weeks and after that a breakout was observed which pushed Nifty much higher. Even now we saw a strong rally from 15K levels back to 18K and since then we are seeing correction which is largely corrective and has now completed around same time period of 8 weeks (~40 trading sessions). Even the other technical indicators like RSI/MACD etc are dancing to the same tune. 

Technical patterns are nothing but just a reflection of past and in case market continue to see a move above 17400-500 zone then it is possible that we see a similar rally even this time too (will not be surprised to see a new high above 18500 levels in that case).

In summary, overall trend is still down but its giving sign that correction is maturing and markets are looking for an excuse to breakout from this correction. Continuous strength from here is likely to push Nifty back towards 18K and 18500 levels. Bears have been given lots of opportunities but they failed to inflict any sizeable damage (as in markets are just 7-8% down from their all-time high). For bears to regain control they must break below 17K levels soon or bulls can run away with the game pretty soon.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 10th Aug 2022

 Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal below 16550

Nifty @ 17525:  Nifty continues to post new high

In the old post, way back on 21st June (when Nifty was around 15600) we had mentioned that

"......the way we read markets, we see a probability of Markets attempting a pull back from these levels back towards 16000-16100 levels and sustaining above it could push markets all the way towards 17K levels"

Nifty has today moved above 17500 which is exactly in line with our expectations. When Nifty was trading  trading around 15600 levels, we had stuck our neck out and had claimed that last 10 months corrections seems to be getting over and Nifty can start moving up now. I think now that its been established beyond any doubt that market indeed is in a up trend and that an important bottom seems to have been made at 15500 levels, we need to analyse with a fresh perspective and look ahead.

We are of the opinion that going forward we can continue to see strength in Nifty. For short term perspective we see some resistance round 17580-600 zone above which Nifty can target 18K levels. On the downside the level around 17100-150 (just below  last Thursdays day low) assumes lots of significance. As long as this level holds, the uptrend remains intact. For bears to have any sizeable impact in near term, 17150-100 needs to be broken in next few sessions else bulls can continue to march ahead. Below 17100 the final support lies at 16600 levels and if that also gets broken then probably we are looking at retesting of last months low (however it doesnt look probable as of now).

In Nutshell, market remains positive and inspite of all the negative news flow about high intrest rates/inflation/fear of recession etc markets can continue to move up from here.To dent this current bullish structure, bears needs to break beow 17100 and then 16600 levels which is not going to be an easy task and until that happens traders should stick to long positions only.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 12th Jul 2022

 Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal below 15500

Nifty @ 16215:  Bulls Tightening Their Grip

In the last post , way back on 21st June (when Nifty was around 15600) we had mentioned that

"......the way we read markets, we see a probability of Markets attempting a pull back from these levels back towards 16000-16100 levels and sustaining above it could push markets all the way towards 17K levels"

Now today, after approx 20 days markets are standing above 16200 levels and even though the rise is slow ( which is understandable) there is no denying the fact the markets have entered bullish territory now. Last month when Nifty was crashing almost everyday and everyone was bearish, we stuck our neck out and call out the end of last 9 month correction and start of a new uptrend. 

Nifty's rise from 15600 to 16200 is a bit slow but its totally acceptable as markets are in the process of making bottom of last 9 month correction hence absorbing lot of time just around 16k level is understandable. What bulls are doing is they are keeping bears interested which makes us believe that this rally can extend much further from here. 

Going forward if Nifty holds 16050-16100 levels then we can see a rally towards 16500 and then 17K levels ofcourse mild pullbacks can be seen from time to time. on the downside if 16050 level breaks then we can see some more weakness towards 15900 levels but no major trend reversal is expected till Nifty breaks below 15500 levels. Shorts be careful, Nifty is giving small pullbacks after every rise which might be just a ploy by bulls to make you bleed slowly.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 22nd Jun 2022

Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal below 15000

Nifty @ 15640: Up 290- Bulls Regaining Control

In the last few post, we had been discusing whether the entire correction from 18500 levels (started from Oct last year) is developing as'netural triangle' or 'expanding triangle'. There were contradictory indications in favour of both the patterns however break below 15750 levels last week has now settled the debate conclusively in the favour of 'expanding triangle'. Here E>C>A & D>B meaning all directional legs are bigger than previous one.

Nifty Daily

In expanding triangles its difficult to predict the size of 'E' leg but here in the case the minimum requirements are already met. Another thing to notice in the chart above is the strong postive divergence emerging on the daily chart. Daily RSI has made a sort of double bottom (while Nifty has fallen 500 points lower than previous swing low).

Hence we believe, if Nifty continue to trade strong above 15500-15650 levels then it could push the Nifty back in strong position. Break below 15750 last week could actually prove in favour of bulls as it has helped in clearing weak hands or the short term traders from the market. There were many traders sitting on long position with a SL of 15750 and since it has broken there is hardly any incentive for anyone to hold on to their long positions. Infact now there are voices in the market & from the analysts on the TV, saying next logical level is 13000. We could see some fresh shorting around 15700 levels and if that doesnt materialise into weakness and Nifty manages to make a move towards 16000 then we could further short covering.

In summary, though anything is possible on the markets, the way we read markets, we see a porbability of Markets attempting a pull back from these levels back towards 16000-16100 levels and sustaining above it could push markets all the way towards 17K levels. On the downside we see good amount of support at 15250-15300 levels and fresh short positions are advised only once these levels breaks. 

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 30th May 2022

  Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal above 16550

Nifty @ 16355: Up 190- Bulls Regaining Control?

In the last post, we had discussed that "there are early indications & a small probability arising that probably markets have done with  the bottom at 15750 levels and we could see some upside from here". We had laid out 16000-16050 as the crucial support on downside and 16550-600 on the upside as the key resistance area. Nifty, did break below 16K on expiry day but recovered smartly to close above 16100 and today it has moved further up towards 16400 levels.

After seeing the movement of last couple of trading sessions, our view has only grown stronger. Though Nifty has not yet taken out the key resistance of 16650 ( now revised to 16550) there is a possibility that bottom is done for Nifty (its a bold statement and generally we dont make such claims till the time its visible on charts clearly).

Daily & hourly charts are revealing higher-top higher bottom kind of formation. First low was at 15750 then 15800 & yesterday (expiry day low) was around 15900. Similarly top area was also 16350 then 16415 and if on Monday market starts trading above 16415 then we will have another higher high. Also the timecycle is not playing out in favour or bears. Market has already consumed so many trading sessions & if there was some larger degree downmove pending then it should have been played out by now. 

Having said this as long as market is trading below 16500-550 theres still a hope for bears as the larger degree downtrend remains intact below this level. However, for any bearish scenarios to play out Nifty needs to fall below 15900 in a swift and sharp move else if bulls are allowed to operate in this zone for few more sessions then they are likely to run away with the game.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 25th May 2022

 Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal above 16650

Nifty @ 16125 down 90 points: Downswing Maturing?

In the last post (when Nifty was around 16300-400), We had discussed how markets are forming an 'Expanding triangle' and likely to fall below 16K level. We had also discussed that 'E' leg needs to be bigger than 'C' leg which mans a new bottom below 15750 is a possibility.

We did see some weakness in Nifty & Markets fell below 15800 in next few trading sessions itself however inspite of that, till now,  'E' leg has remained smaller that 'C' leg which raises two probabilities. (A) entire move is still unfolding like a 'Neutral triangle' where in C leg should be the largest leg of all directional move Or (B) its still an 'expanding triangle' only and one more leg on the downside is still pending to be unfolded.

Now one important thing to note is that 'E' leg has already consumed around 33 trading sessions which is similar to C leg time wise. In expanding triangles 'E' leg usually is sharper and faster than 'C' leg so ideally speaking by now Nifty should have broken below 15700 levels, which is not the case. 

Nifty Daily

Another imp point to note is the gap-down area of 19th May. On 19th May markets opened with a huge gapdown below 16K levels and closed at 15800 but the very next day this gap-down area was cancelled out with a gap-up opening. This is called "island reversal" and it carries bullish implication if not filled in next 1-2 trading sessions.

In nutshell, even though both options exists & overall trend of market is still down, there are early indications & a small probability arising that probably markets have done with  the bottom at 15750 levels and we could see some upside from here. Nifty has strong resistance at 16550-600 levels and moving above it could be the first strong signal that the last 8 months correction is coming to an end & trend is changing to UP. Falling below 16050-16000 levels (and filling the gap-up area) on the other hand could indicate that 'expanding triangle' is still unfolding and markets can fall further and create a new low below 15750 levels.  Traders should note the above two scenarios and then trade accordingly.

Happy Trading!