Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 30th May 2022

  Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal above 16550

Nifty @ 16355: Up 190- Bulls Regaining Control?

In the last post, we had discussed that "there are early indications & a small probability arising that probably markets have done with  the bottom at 15750 levels and we could see some upside from here". We had laid out 16000-16050 as the crucial support on downside and 16550-600 on the upside as the key resistance area. Nifty, did break below 16K on expiry day but recovered smartly to close above 16100 and today it has moved further up towards 16400 levels.

After seeing the movement of last couple of trading sessions, our view has only grown stronger. Though Nifty has not yet taken out the key resistance of 16650 ( now revised to 16550) there is a possibility that bottom is done for Nifty (its a bold statement and generally we dont make such claims till the time its visible on charts clearly).

Daily & hourly charts are revealing higher-top higher bottom kind of formation. First low was at 15750 then 15800 & yesterday (expiry day low) was around 15900. Similarly top area was also 16350 then 16415 and if on Monday market starts trading above 16415 then we will have another higher high. Also the timecycle is not playing out in favour or bears. Market has already consumed so many trading sessions & if there was some larger degree downmove pending then it should have been played out by now. 

Having said this as long as market is trading below 16500-550 theres still a hope for bears as the larger degree downtrend remains intact below this level. However, for any bearish scenarios to play out Nifty needs to fall below 15900 in a swift and sharp move else if bulls are allowed to operate in this zone for few more sessions then they are likely to run away with the game.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 25th May 2022

 Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal above 16650

Nifty @ 16125 down 90 points: Downswing Maturing?

In the last post (when Nifty was around 16300-400), We had discussed how markets are forming an 'Expanding triangle' and likely to fall below 16K level. We had also discussed that 'E' leg needs to be bigger than 'C' leg which mans a new bottom below 15750 is a possibility.

We did see some weakness in Nifty & Markets fell below 15800 in next few trading sessions itself however inspite of that, till now,  'E' leg has remained smaller that 'C' leg which raises two probabilities. (A) entire move is still unfolding like a 'Neutral triangle' where in C leg should be the largest leg of all directional move Or (B) its still an 'expanding triangle' only and one more leg on the downside is still pending to be unfolded.

Now one important thing to note is that 'E' leg has already consumed around 33 trading sessions which is similar to C leg time wise. In expanding triangles 'E' leg usually is sharper and faster than 'C' leg so ideally speaking by now Nifty should have broken below 15700 levels, which is not the case. 

Nifty Daily

Another imp point to note is the gap-down area of 19th May. On 19th May markets opened with a huge gapdown below 16K levels and closed at 15800 but the very next day this gap-down area was cancelled out with a gap-up opening. This is called "island reversal" and it carries bullish implication if not filled in next 1-2 trading sessions.

In nutshell, even though both options exists & overall trend of market is still down, there are early indications & a small probability arising that probably markets have done with  the bottom at 15750 levels and we could see some upside from here. Nifty has strong resistance at 16550-600 levels and moving above it could be the first strong signal that the last 8 months correction is coming to an end & trend is changing to UP. Falling below 16050-16000 levels (and filling the gap-up area) on the other hand could indicate that 'expanding triangle' is still unfolding and markets can fall further and create a new low below 15750 levels.  Traders should note the above two scenarios and then trade accordingly.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 10th May 2022

  Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal above 17300

Nifty @ 16300 down 100 points: Weakness Continues

We have been mentioning in the previous few posts that market is likely forming an 'expanding triangle' which if true, can push towards a new low below 15750 (previous swing low). In last 5 trading sessions Nifty has lost more than 1000 points, and even fallen below the low point of A leg ( 16900) increasing the possibility of the entire move (from Oct last year) is one of 'expanding triangle'.

Nifty Weekly

Looking at the weekly charts it can be seen that both A & C leg previously had consumed around 9 weeks and E leg is just in its 6th week only so there is a possibility that weakness we are witnessing can continue for next 2-3 weeks more and in turn Push Nifty below 15750 ( falling towards 15K levels or even lower is  a possibility too). 

Overall its not looking positive for markets and its possible that markets try to suck in 'dip buyers' towards 16k levels and then falling some more from there. However there is a silver lining as well, this leg ideally should be the last leg of entire ongoing correction we have been witnessing since Oct last year (8 months) and once this gets over in next 2-3 weeks should offfer good opportunity to add long positions. So this is not the time for bottom fishing, not yet. That will come later for sure.

Trading wise one can continue to hold on to short positions with part profit bookings with  trailing stop loss of 16800 levels. market has strong resistance at 16800-17K levels for short term and 17300 for medium term and till that is crossed, weakness is likely to continue.

Trade Well!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 05th May 2022

 Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal above 17300

Nifty @ 16680 down 400 points- weakness to the fore, bears on top.

In previous post we had mentioned the probability of market forming an expanding bearish triangle ( where E>C>A> and D>B). We had also mentioned that even though 17100 has been supporting market this time its possible that its broken for good. The above analysis was in danger of proving incorrect as markets agains bounced and touched levels of 17400 (just below our reversal level) in next couple of trading sessions itself. However after touching 17400 markets once again reversed and this time the sharp was fall and severe and hs taken markets to below 16700 which means a fall of around 700 points in 2-3 trading sessions, reiterating the importance of technical analysis.

Movement of last 10 days (ever since Nifty hit a low of 16850 on 19th Apr) is suggesting some sort of consolidation which seems to have been over on Monday just below 17400. Now markets probably has opened a new leg on the downside which can take markets below 15750 ( previous swing low).

Remember, expanding triangle is a bearish pattern wherein the markets have not yet hit a low. As advised in previous post, both A & C (directional down leg) lasted for around 9-10 weeks and E leg is in its 4th week only so this downswing can continue for another 4-5 weeks ( entire May month atleast).

In Summary inspite of smart pullbacks we are witnessing from time to time market remains bearish and these pullbacks are just acting as 'bulltrap' which would ultimately result in more weakness. For now its advised to stay out of long position. Traders are used to seeing Nifty take support around/below 17K levels and then bouncing back but such resilience can not last forever. E leg of expanding triangle is usually the ugliest of all 3 legs hence maximum caution is warranted

Happy Trading!

 

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 28th Apr 2022

  Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal above 17460

Nifty @ 17038 down 160 points- Bulls losing plot.

In past few posts we have been maintaining that overall trend of the market is positive as long as 17100 holds. 17100 was broken couple of times last week but both times it was temporary and markets bounced back above it on the very next today. Today again 17100 is breached and markets have closed below it and the way markets have closed today (& its inability to bounce back) is indicating that probably now it has been breached for real.

Overall, we were expecting markets to form 'neutral triangle' wherein the last leg (E) should have finished somewhere around 17100 and that should have marked the end of correction which started in Oct last year from 18500 levels. However now theres another probability emerging. Threres a chance that the entire correction is developing like a "Expanding triangle" in which case "E" could be > "C" and if thats true then we can fall below 16K levels once again. 

Nifty Daily

Here C>A & D>B. If E leg remains smaller then "E" and  finishes above the low point of "A" leg ( which is around 16500 levels) then the arguement that its a neutral triangle still remains valid however if it keeps falling below 16500 then chances are its an expanding triangle wherein E>C>A and that opens up target as low as 15K.

Neutral triangle is a bullish pattern which assumes low is already made by markets whereas expanding triangle is a bearish pattern where in the low is yet to be created.

In current E leg, markets took 9 days to fall from 18K to 17K and now even after 6 days markets are just barely above 17K levels which is indicating that the upmove or pull back we witnessed in last few trading session was just a corrective move and once its done markets can open another leg on the downside. 

In summary, the way markets are going , further weakness if witnessed from here should not be taken lightly. Bottom fishing should be avoided for time being ( till the time its seen that market has taken a support and bounched back above 17450 levels). Both A & C leg lasted for 8-9 weeks and E leg is now 3 weeks old, so it can continue for another 5-6 week which means weakness might persists for entire May month atleast.

Happy Trading

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 19th Apr 2022

 Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal below 17100

Nifty @ 17175 down 300 points- Bears on top. 

We had discussed in previous post that "we could witness some hesitancy around 18100 levels and markets could drop towards 17650 levels and below that final support level exists at 17100 levels"

We had also expected markets to continue exhibiting strength but we were proved wrong and markets broke below 17650 levels last week and today it opened with a big gapdown to test 17100 levels. This was not a preferred scenario but since 17100 was protected today and is holding, for now, we will keep medium term trend to UP only.

Markets have been falling/ creating a lower low continuously since last 8 days. Historically we have seen markets usually falling for 9-10 continuous days before giving some sort of bounce back. Markets are getting oversold as well hence its likely that fall is arrested in next 1-2 days and we see some sort of bounce. What happens after the bounce will be critical. If bounce fizzle out soon and markets drop below 17100 levels again then chances are we could see this fall getting extended towards much lower levels. On the other hand, holding 17100 and moving back above 17550-600  levels could push Nifty back towards 18k levels.

Happy Trading! 

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 05th Apr 2022

 Medium Term Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal level below 17100

Nifty @ 18040 up 2%- 18K reclaimed, bulls stamp their authority

Discussed in previous post "........ a double bottom around 17K levels which suggest a solid base is formed around 17k levels from where markets might attempt to launch itself towards 17500-17800 levels"

Markets did even better and moved above 18k levels very quickly indeed ( todays move credited to HDFC twins which single handedly pulled markets above this key psychological level). Having said this, its not really a surprise that we have moved back above 18K levels. It was always on the card and a strong possibility and that is the reason we have been advising against going short and instead use all dips to buy. Since last 2-3 weeks Nifty has moved from sub 16k levels to back above 18k levels, justifying our stance.

Now going forward we can see some consolidation or hesitancy around at 18100-18300 levels (which is justified) however no major weakness is visible on the charts yet and it wont be a surprise if Nifty moves even further from here. On the downside, levels around 17650 level should act as immediate support and  could be a good support area to buy. If 17650 is broken then we can fall towards 17100-17200 levels which is the medium support area for this entire move (chances of this scenario playing out is slim though).

In Nutshell markets are strong and the strength likely to continue for now, small dips/consolidation should not be construed as sign of weakness so dont be fooled by them. Markets seems to have trapped Bears ( gap-up openings are indicative of that) hence any significant fall (which takes market below 17K levels) is looking less and less probable now.

Happy Trading