Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for 22nd Apr 2021

Medium Term Trend: 👈👉Sideways (Changes to up above 15100 & down below 14200)

Nifty @ 14295 down 63 points - Weakness once Again

Last couple of days have brought mayhem in Markets and Nifty has crashed from 14600+ levels to 14200+ levels. Worsening covid cases & the widespread panic was blamed for the sell off. In last few posts we have been discussing that Markets are in sideways mode and have been maintaining that the break out is likely to be seen on the upside.  In the previous post we had mentioned that:

For bearish option to play out we should see a strong reaction on Monday (when we say strong we mean atleast a fall of 150-200 point) followed up by break of 14250 levels in next 3 trading session, anything short of that is not likely to deter bulls.

Unfortunately for bulls thats how it turned out and markets opened with a 200+ gapdown on Monday Even a flat or mildly weak trading session on Monday would have gone a long way in kickstarting the upmove. Frankly speaking we were not expecting such a move and the probability of same was pretty low. However that does not mean that overall view is changed, inspite of the carnage witnessed in last couple of days , the overall view still remains same. Market is in sideways mode and breakout is still likely to come on upside. Reason is simple, market has spent way too much time in this range ( around 40 days or 9 week). Usually no bearish/sideways mode lasts for more than this period. Lets  compare the last 40 days movement with crash we had seen in Feb/Mar last year.

Last year when the crash unfolded it took markets exactly 9 weeks to crash from 12500 levels to 7500 levels. Now market has consumed almost same time but trading just 1000 points from all time low. Point is market does not like to wait (especially for a downside move).If any major fall was possible then it would and should have come by now. In other words, If markets were to go down it would have gone down by now and not waited for cases to increase to 2.5L. What we witnessed was probably just a kneejerk reaction by a section of market participants and once the news is digested its likely to reverse. Remember any move which comes AFTER the news is out does not last for long (news follows market and not other way around).

Having said this, in case we break below 14200 levels ( have shifted the range slightly to 14200-15100) and close (2 consecutive close) then it possible that we see some more fall (towards 13800) but even if that happens that should be just the last leg of this fall expanding on the downside.

In Nutshell, 14200-14300 levels hold the key for short term & if market holds it ( its been holding since last 2 months) and start trading above 14550-600 then it will be a very positive sign and indication that break out is arriving on the other hand if 14200 breaks then we might see some more fall but even then market is not likely to sustain below it for long.

Happy Trading!

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To see our recent trading calls for Nifty Algo- Pls click ⤇ Past Trade Summary (updated till 19th Apr).

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for 19th Apr 2021

Medium Term Trend: 👈👉Sideways (Changes to up above 15200 & down below 14300)

Nifty @ 14620 up 40 points - Beginning to gain strength

Nifty tested 14700 levels today however could not breach it and dropped to 14600 levels and closed with small gains. After testing 14300 levels early this week market has yet again managed to move around 400 points from the lows (hit on Monday). We had mentioned following in the previous post

"Nifty is still holding on to 14250-14300 levels which means bulls are not out of picture. Yesterday fall was driven by panic and often bottoms are made during panic. Rising corona cases are leading traders to believe a repeat of Mar 2020 which as per us is very far fetched thought ( atleast as of now). Infact such a a sharp fall could lead market to move up with same force (aided by short covering and value buying). Remember we had also said that doesnt matter which scenario is playing out, the overall trend is likely to break on the upside and nothing has changed even now(even after a 500 point fall)"

Now last few days recovery is justifying our stance and indicating that our overall analysis (so far) is on right path. Nifty has tested one crucial resistance today (14650) and though it didnt close above it, we didnt see any strong sell off as well which is indeed a positive sign. If we do not see a sell off soon and market start spending some more time near these levels & manage a positive close above 14650-700 levels then it could indicate that 14850-900 is likely to be tested again soon. We have spend close to 40 trading sessions in the range and its enough to bore traders and market is ripe for a breakout.

For bearish option to play out we should see a strong reaction on Monday (when we say strong we mean atleast a fall of 150-200 point) followed up by break of 14250 levels in next 3 trading session, anything short of that is not likely to deter bulls.

We would advise bears to exercise caution and refrain from creating short position for now, recently market has rewarded traders who have sold on every rise but situation can change any time. On the contrary if strength is witnessed on even Monday, then long position can be added (with adequate and proper SL of course).


Happy Trading!

To Join our Nifty algo buy/sell whatsapp message service during market hours, pls click⤇ Nifty Buy/Sell Algorithm or whatsapp @ 9319321906

To see our recent trading calls for Nifty Algo- Pls click ⤇ Past Trade summary (updated till 5th Apr).

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for 15th Apr 2021

Medium Term Trend:  👈👉Sideways (Changes to up above 15200 & down below 14300)

Nifty @ 14504 UP 195 points  - Nifty turning Volatile

Nifty open flattish and after threatening to go down below 14300 levels, made a swift recovery in the end and closed at 14500 levels. This has come after losing 500 points in previous session ( black Monday) which raises the question if the bounce we are seeing is just a dead cat bounce.

In the previous post we had discussed about two possibilities and had mentioned that if  the second scenario is playing out then"...……….. market should open another leg(E) which could again take market down to 14500 (or lower) levels". further we had mentioned that "if its the second scenario, then we could see some weakness in next few trading sessions accompanied by some sharp fall"

We did see some sharp fall ( sharper than anyone could have imagined) on Monday but the overall movement remains on expected lines. Nifty is still holding on to 14250-14300 levels which means bulls are not out of picture. Yesterday fall was driven by panic and often bottoms are made during panic. Rising corona cases are leading traders to believe a repeat of Mar 2020 which as per us is very far fetched thought ( atleast as of now). Infact such a a sharp fall could lead market to move up with same force (aided by short covering and value buying). Remember we had also said that doesnt matter which scenario is playing out, the overall trend is likely to break on the upside and nothing has changed even now(even after a 500 point fall).

Nifty Daily

Now we have spend around 38 trading session in consolidation/sideways correction and surely not much time is remaining for this consolidation to get over. Market cant remain like this forever. In our experience, we have seen often seen consolidation period ranging from 30-40 days (generally speaking though it can extend as well). We had shared this data in the beginning of March itself.

Moving forward market has a good resistance in 14650-14800 levels (gapdown area of Monday) and if the pull back we witness today is just a dead cat bounce then Nifty should not move above this area and crash below 14300 again. A move below 14250-300 could mean that something else is brewing in markets which needs to be re-analysed later. Trading wise, we had exited our long position on Thursday/Friday around 14800 & 14900 levels and now adopting a wait and watch approach. Fresh trading call will be taken and shared soon.


In Summary, overall consolidation pattern continues, for a bullish move to begin look for a successful crossover above B-D line (chart above). On the other hand a break below 14250 ( 2 consecutive close) levels could mean the entire corrective pattern is now beginning to take shape as a impulsive pattern which will be a bad news for Bulls.


Trade accordingly.

Happy Trading!

To Join our Nifty algo buy/sell whatsapp message service during market hours, pls click⤇ Nifty Buy/Sell Algorithm  or whatsapp @ 9319321906 

To see our recent trading calls for Nifty Algo- Pls click ⤇  Past Trade summary (updated till  5th Apr).