Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 14th Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)

Volatility to the core : Nifty opened positive above 11300 and went on to touch 11360 before a sharp fall came and nifty dropped below 11200 levels however Markets recovered again and Nifty reclaimed 11300 levels to close at 11305 and gained 70 odd points.

Nifty has been moving in a very volatile move however the trend remains on the upside. Downmove or choppiness we are witnessing are not able to sustain and Nifty is slowly inching upwards. For now 11350 level is acting like a strong resistance but the way markets are trading there are chances this level could eventually be taken out. On the downside todays low at 11190 assumes a lot of significance. In case nifty start trading weak and drops below 11190 then the current correction can extend further by 150-250 points. On the upside, if 11350 is crossed then 11430-450 is the next resistance for Nifty and above that 11700 could be and should be tested once again.

We have been recommending buying on dips (and the strategy seems to be working for now) and strongly advising against going short as we believe we are in a very crucial uptrend. We might spend some more time around these levels and some more volatility can be seen but we believe its just a matter of time before Nifty start moving towards higher ( much higher) levels. We saw a sharp rally of 1000+ points from the lows of 10650 levels ( regular readers of this blog must be aware that we were continuously recommending going long at those levels) and we believe that theres a probability Nifty giving another big move on the similar lines pretty soon.

Nifty daily chart

Since many are requesting to post an update on our medium term outlook let me just post an overall summary ( will also post an detailed update if time permits). We believe that markets completed a very important upmove or a bullish cycle at 11171 in Jan 2018. All the moves we saw afterwards ( 11171- 10K-11650-10k-11K-10600) were part of a 13 month long correction which might have finished as a 5 legged neutral triangle and after that market has opened another up leg/bullish cycle which finished its leg 1 at 12100 and leg 2 at recent low of 10650 ( leg 2 retraced almost 90% of the leg 1). Now theres a possibility that we are in leg 3 which could take Nifty to much higher levels.

Here we must mention that when E leg was in prgoress we were expecting it to fall below 9950 and create panic like situation in the markets however that didnt happen and E leg ended at a failure point ( which was higher than C leg). E leg ending at a failure point increases the possibility of markets starting a strong uptrend. However that doesnt mean that market will be moving in a straight line, we will continue to see choppy moves and sharp fall of 200-300 points very often ( just to scare the weak hands). So while its important to have a stop loss its equally important to have a strong conviction.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 10th Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)

Strong Rally : Nifty opened flat around 11120 levels and even dropped below 11090 levels during intraday however it soon bounced back and didnt look back after that. It rose more than 230 points from day low and closed at 11310 levels. Up 185 points.

Like we have been saying since last so many days that market remains in uptrend and all dips should be utilised to go long. We had also mentioned that as long as levels of 11050 is intact the uptrend remains intact as well. Today market almost touched our medium term pivotal point and bounce from that region to give a rally of 200 points.We also mentioned that we see the current fall (from 11700 levels) as a retracement of recent sharp rally ( from 10650 to 11700) and once the retracement is complete market will start another leg on the upside.

Now that we have seen a sharp move from 11100 levels, can we assume that pullback is complete and market is ready to open another leg on the upside and touch higher levels? well the answer to this question is probably yes. We need to see if markets can cross 11400-440 levels in next 2-3 trading sessions and if that happens then we can say with reasonably surety that a fresh leg on the upside is opened On the other hand if we see some hesistation around 11400 levels then we can see one more dip towards 11150-11200 levels ( however chances of that happening appears low as of now).

In Nutshell, market remains in uptrend and the retracement/consolidation can last for few more days but as long as 11050 is intact there is a strong likelihood of market moving sharply from these levels hence we do not recommend going short for now ( going long on dips should be the only trading plan in the present scenario).

Happy Trading!!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 09th Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)

Downmove Continues : Nifty opened flat and traded above 11200 for most part of the day but failed to cross above its key resistance area of 11250 and shed 100+ points from its day high. It hit a low of around 11115 and closed at 11126, down 50 odd points.

Nifty has been trading weak since last 8-9 trading session  (ever since it hit a high of 11700) and now has shed around 600 points from the highs it hit couple of weeks back. This continuos weakness in markets is raising doubts and questions if the recent high was just a pullback rally driven by corp rate cut news and now the markets have resumed its downtrend already. In our opinion, it would be too early to conclude that. Inspite of market showing weakness for last few sessions market remains in a uptrend ( for now) and till the time sustained trading is seen below 11050 levels , it would not be wise to bet on the short/bearish side.

Charts and technicals continue to point towards a possible uptrend (which has already started) and for now we are reading the fall from 11700 levels as a corrective fall of the 1000+ rise we saw from the lows of 10650.

In Nutshell, evern though markets continue to be weak and continue to move South, there are many indicators suggesting a probability of markets starting yet another bullish move from these levels hence it doesnt make sense to go short at current levels. If Nifty break below 11050-11K levels then we will have to see and probably re-analyse all data but for now nothing changes.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 03rd Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)

Sharp Fall : Nifty yesterday saw a sharp fall of more than 200+ points towards 11250 area but recovered nearly 50% of the losses to close at 11350 levels, down 100 points.

We have continuously been saying that since nifty has run up 1000 points from its recent low, some amount of correction/sidwaymovement/consolidation or a dip is possible from current levels. However that doesnt mean that Nifty has resumed its downtrend.  We continue to believe that Nifty is headed higher from current levels but ofcourse that doesnt mean that we cannot see some sharp fall ( like we witnessed yesterday).

Going forward too we can see the 11300-11250 again getting tested and aslong as 11050-11100 stands there is no threat to the current upmove which started from 10700 levels.All sharp selloffs or a panic selling should be utilised to go long.

There are many analyst who are seeing the move from 10700-11600 as a retracement rally (of a previous downmove) and are expecting nifty to fall to 10600-10700 level again. However our view is different ( and has been different for a while now) we continue to believe that after the current consolidation is over,Nifty will start a second leg of the upmove ( which could be as strong as the first one was)

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 01st Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)

Market Consolidates : Nifty opened week below 11500 levels and went on to touch 11390 but recovered most of the losses later. It close at 11475 levels down 35 points.

Overall Nifty continue to move on the expected lines and after giving a rally of 1000+ points some bit of consolidation is expected at current levels. This consolidation may continue for some more time around these levels or Nifty can give one more sharp upmove from current levles towards 11700-12K and then cosolidates. In either scenario, we are expecting Nifty to move up from these levels. In between if there is any dip towards 11300 then it should be utilised as a buying opportunity.


Nutshell, nothing much to add as nothing has changed till now.We would like to reitirate that It doesnt make any sense to short this market at current levels. As long as 11200-11100 sustains we expect Nifty to move up from current levels hence utilise all dips to go long.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 27th Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)
Strong Expiry : Nifty opened with a positive bias , just below 11500 levels and quickly moved on to 11600 levels. It traded between 11500-600 for most part of the day and closed at 11570 levels up 130 points.

Today inspite of expiry day, there wasn't too much volatility and Nifty quickly erased all the losses of yesterday. Like we have been guiding and advising, the near term trend for Nifty remains up and all dips could be utilised to enter long positions now.

We had changed the medium term trend of Nifty to 'up' when it closed at 11075 levels couple of weeks back and since then Nifty has gained 500+ points. Infact when Nifty was trading at 10800-700 levels we were continuously advising against going shorts and maintained our view that this was just a part of bottoming out process and Nifty could make some important bottom around these levels and head higher.

On monthly charts ( expiry to expiry) Nifty has gained around 600 points which is a very positive and bullish sign. Going forward, now since Nifty has already run up close to 1000 points from its recent lows so theres a chance of some consolidation around these levels. Its entirely possible that Nifty spend some time here and then move up or it may move a little more from here ( 300-400 points) and then start consolidating. In nutshell it will continue to move up and there is nothing on charts which is suggesting that Nifty wants to go down in a hurry. Tomorrow if chart change then our view will change as well but for now we continue to believe that Nifty is headed higher from here.

below is the snapshot of some of the messages/trades we executed and shared with our subscribers.
 in last few weeks.

07/08/2019, 11:11 - : *nifty 10950 buy 2 parts*
23/08/2019, 09:47 - : Good morning. Nifty 10652. Buy 2 more parts
23/08/2019, 09:49 - : Hold with SL 10620 (Small sl)
23/08/2019, 10:33 - : *nifty 10755 book profit 2 parts long*
30/08/2019, 09:58 - : Trading around 11010. Keep holding longs, let volatility and consolidation (whatever little is remaining) play out. Post this consolidation we expect nifty to break much higher levels.
03/09/2019, 09:26 - : Good morning, nifty trading weak @10920 weak gdp data and iip numbers weighing heavily on mkts. Keep holding longs for now
06/09/2019, 09:55 - : *nifty 10892 sell 10800 PE @ 112*
06/09/2019, 09:56 - : Alternatively nifty long can be initiated at cmp @10890.
06/09/2019, 15:06 - : Njfty 10945. Less risky traders can book profits in long initiated today around 10890 or in 10800 pe. Else carry all long for next week.
09/09/2019, 09:50 - : Good morning, nifty trading around 10920. Keep holding all longs for now. Nothing to be done
09/09/2019, 10:08 - : *book profit nifty 10800 PE @cmp 77*
09/09/2019, 10:09 - : Nifty 10977.keep holding long nifty futures.
19/09/2019, 11:41 - : Nifty 10760, nothing to be done yet. Nifty might make a u turn soon
19/09/2019, 15:22 - : Nifty 10715.carry longs for Tomorrow
20/09/2019, 11:52 - : Nifty 11205, seeing an unprecedented rally. Up 500 points. It was long overdue though. Risky traders can book some part profit at these levels else continue to hold all 4 parts
20/09/2019, 15:03 - : Nifty 11280. Carry all longs for nifty
20/09/2019, 15:03 - : Less risky traders can do some part profit booking.
23/09/2019, 09:15 - : *nifty 11580 book profit 2 parts*


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Happy Trading!