Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 16th Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 10583)

11075 Conquered : Nifty opened  flat but quickly dropped to 10950 levels. After threatening to make a move down it started moving up in late trade and touched 11080 levels. It closed at 11076 up almost 100points.

11075 was our pivotal level for medium term and same has been crossed today. Though the move has been slow and has taken more time than we would have ideally liked to see but still it doesn't change much. Yesterday when Nifty failed to cross 11075 levels and started moving down, there was a possibility of markets giving one more dip on the downside before moving up. Markets did fall below 11K levels but the fall wasn't steep and was arrested at 10950 levels itself.

Now that we have successfully closed above 11075 levels ( that too on weekly charts as well) further strength and one more close above 11075 should open higher targets for Nifty. We see 11240-250 as the next logical target for Nifty and 11K should offer good amount of support for Nifty.

If Nifty can show strength above 11250 levels then there is a possibility of Nifty testing much higher levels from here (11400-11500+). Most of the bad news is already factored in by the markets and US markets are already near their all time high. So from that perspective Nifty has a lot of catching up to do.


Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 12th Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11075)

11k Holds: Nifty opened positive around 11025 levels and spent whole day consolidating between 11020-11060 levels. it finally closed at 11036, up 30 points.

Nifty overall movement remains on expected line and regular reader of this blog are aware that when markets were falling, we were continuously maintain a bullish view and were expecting Nifty to move from 10700 levels. Nifty has moved around 300-350 points from the lows already and now needs to move above 11075 level ( which is our pivotal level for medium term) to open up further upside.

We had also mentioned that the move from lower levels needs to be impulsive and sharp however the upmove is not as sharp ( till now) as we were expecting so there could be a possibility of some sharp and sudden choppy moves on the downside but those should  buying opportunity only.

For immediate term 11075 and 11250 are 2 criticals levels to watch out for and crossing these levels would open further upside towards 11400-500 however if Nifty fails to break out 11075 soon and  take another 2-3 sessions to do so then we can expect another round of sell off and a possible dip towards 10800 levels.

Most oscillators on daily charts have crossed over to positive territory and we continue to see strength building up on short term charts as well.

Many are asking to update the medium term chart/view on Nifty which we will do pretty soon but as far as the chart reading goes (as of now), there are only 2 strong possibility a) Either Nifty consolidates around these levels for 4-5 weeks more and then start moving up shortly ( towards mid/end October) or b) Nifty start moving up immediately from current levels itself.

So its just a matter of timing. Markets could start breaking up on the upside immediately or it might pause and spend little more time here and then start moving up. Sustained downside is not looking possible ( basis current picture) however things can change anytime and if tomorrow the picture changes then we will have to change our view accordingly  as well but as of now we can see only 2 options and both are positive.

Happy Trading

 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 11th Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11075)

Inching Up: Nifty opened weak around 10900 levels however lower levels attracted buying and it soon moved up above 11K. after trading around same level for most part of the day, it close at 11003, up 50 odd points.

We have been mentioning since last few days ( even when Nifty was crashing to 10700-10800 levels) that we do not foresee much weakness in Nifty and these sharp falls that we are witnessing is just part of the bottoming out process for Nifty. Its quite possible that either market has already made a bottom at 10650 levels or will make soon. In our previous post, we had also suggested buying above 10920 for a target of 11K+ and target was already achieved today as well so there you had some 100+ points in Nifty for the taking.

Going forward, for now, Nifty seems to be moving on expected lines and if it manages to cross 11075-11100 levels then it will probably open up much higher targets. Only thing is the upmove should be fast enough in case we spend too much time around 10900-11K levels then probably markets will see one more dip towards 10800 or lower levels. 11075 remains the pivotal point from mid term perspective for us and crossing and closing above it will be positive for markets in near term.

In Summary, our view still remains same. We have seen a rally of around 300-350 points from the recent lows and if we manage to make a close above 11075 then next resistance will be around 11220-250 levels. We can always expect some sharp falls from the current levels we doubt if those will be sustained and hence should be treated as a buying opportunity only.

Happy Trading!!






 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 6th Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11075)

Flat day: Nifty opened strong around 10900 but failed to sustained above it. Nifty made a high of 10920 and dropped 100 points from there, it finally closed at 10850 levels.

Nifty had a bad day on Tuesday and since then it is trying to gain some lost ground but not succeeding. Break of 10850 level has caused apprehension and weakness in Nifty and its struggling to make a move on. Though the last 2 days closing have been around 10850 points, we need to see if weekly close comes above or below it conclusively.

Weakness below 10850-10810 zone could push Nifty back towards 10750 levels however holding the same and then making a move above 10900-920 levels could push Nifty again to 11K+ levels. In case Nifty make a move above 10920 levels and sustain for some time then long position can be entered for a target of around 11K levels with a SL of 10860.

Overall we continue to believe that a bottoming out process is going in Nifty which has either completed already or could take some more days ( with some more volatility). Post this consolidation/volatility we expect a strong move. For now we don't see much weakness from current levels. Crossing above 11100 levels would be the first sign for such a move (but it should be impulsive and not corrective in nature).

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 4th Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11075)

Black Monday: Nifty opened with a gapdown at 10900 levels however unlike Friday, failed to find any support and broke below 10800. It closed with a massive loss of 200+ points @ 10797.

Fall in GDP and IIP weighed heavily on the markets and it crashed below 10800. it even broke the 10850 which brought further selling and weakness towards close and Nifty touched a low of 10772 before closing at 10800. However thing to note is that the fall has come on account of bad news and mostly the news driven rally or fall don't last for long.

Technically though we have fallen below 10850 we need to see if market is sustaining below these levels or attempt to bounce back. In short term we may see a bit of more weakness but our view doesn't change yet. We continue to believe that markets are in process of finding a bottom around these levels and these choppy moves and increased volatility is testimony of that. Now markets can go and fall a little bit more but till now there is nothing which is suggesting a broad fall from these levels. Of course sentiment driven fall or choppy moves can continue for some more time but for medium term perspective there is a probability of market making bottom around these levels.

The latest rally from 10650 to 11150 had taken just 3 days , now the fall from 11150 has taken 4 days already and it has still not able to retrace 100% of the previous rally. Also if you notice , the last 4 days fall from 11150 is clearly in a ABC corrective pattern and wherein ( after todays fall) the C leg has matched A leg. We need to observe if market tries to hold on to todays low and move above 10850 levels.

Another thing to note is that medium term pivot level has further moved down to 11075 levels (from 11220 earlier). In case market goes on to break above 11075 levels then hopefully that will pave the way for a fresh upmove in Nifty.

In Nutshell, there could be some more volatility and pain in coming days but overall it should be a part of the bottoming out process and once its done, we should be seeing an sustained move on the upside. Keep an eye on 11075-11100 levels, crossing over these levels would be the first sign of a fresh bull move.

Happy Trading

 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 03rd Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11220)

Choppy Day Nifty opened flat and quickly added 60 odd points jumped to 11020 levels only to dive down below 10900 levels. It made a U turn  once again and crossed above 11K and almost at day high @11023 up 75 points.

Nifty was again volatile but like we had mentioned in previous post that 10900-940 is likely to provide good support to Nifty and there is no real sign of worry as long as 10850 holds as any serious downside is expected below 10850 only. Nifty did break 10900 momentarily but couldn't sustain it and as expected it bounced back again.

Now that we have made a close above 11K levels , the next target for nifty is to breach the 11150-175 & 11220 levels above that. This level is providing stiff resistance to Nifty but it has been tested too many times and most likely , sooner or later, markets will break it ( this is what we feel as of today).

GDP numbers came in the evening and they don't look good. @ 5% GDP is at its slowest growth in last 6 years. This is likely to weigh in on markets when markets open for trading next week, though it was more or less expected and factored in by Markets.

In Nutshell, the pull back which started from lows of 10650 levels still continues and Market can break above 11220 levels then there is a possibility of this pullback changing into a fresh upmove. On the downside break below 10850 will most probably put an end to it.

Happy Trading!!


 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 30th Aug 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11220)

Weak Expiry: Nifty opened down today below 11K levels and made a low of 10920 levels. It made an attempt to cross 11K levels however couldn't sustain it and once again dropped to 10950 and closed almost 100 points down.

 

Nifty was pretty volatile today ( which is expected on a expiry day). yesterday we had mentioned that if 10980 is breached then will have to analyse it further, however looking at the way market moved today ( and the fact that it was an expiry day) , the breach of 10980 is not looking threatening as of now. The way market traded today shows that band of 10900-940 is likely to offer good support and further weakness is likely below this zone only.

 

Markets tend to volatile on expiry days hence one should not read too much into the ups and downs, mostly these movements are just there to extract favorable 'call/put settlements' by smart money. There was a good OI at 11K Puts which suggested that probably the expiry is going to come above 11k levels however it was not to be.

 

Now going forward we still hold on to our view that Nifty (probably) can go higher from here but for that to happen we must cross 11175-11220 levels. This zone is continuously acting as a resistance and nifty has tried 3 times to cross it but failed each time. However there is still a chance for markets to do that and if that happens will be extremely +ve for bulls. Intraday volatility is likely to be on higher side especially since global markets continue to be all over the place. On the downside 10900-940 zone is likely to offer support but no serious move on the downside is expected as long as 10850 holds.

 

Happy Trading!