Nifty Trade Performance (Since Nov 2018)

Nifty Trade Performance

Nifty Trade summary

Last updated (till 14th Jan 2019)

Imp: We use 'final exit' level & not the 'recommended exit' level to measure our trade performance. Most advisors use highest point ( final exit or the recommended exit whichever is showing largest profit) to measure their performance. For ex Trade no.3 ( Buy @ 10655) Nifty had gone till 10900 and we had recommended an exit/part booking around those levels to less risky traders. We finally exited in small loss @ 10630 levels still we are showing the exit @ 10630 and not 10900.  

Note:

• Max open position at any given time is 4 Nifty parts (above example is assuming a trade of 4 lots)
• Each part can be 1 lot 10 lot or 100 lot for you (depending on your capital & risk appetite)
• All 4 parts may be either invested in one go or in instalments. Similarly exit can be in one shot or in instalments
• Capital required to maintain/trade 4 Nifty lots is around 3-4 Lac ( keep changing as per exchange requirement)

Nifty View: Update for 6th Dec 2018

Market Update:
Interesting day today. Market opened weak and kept trading in negative territory throughout  the day before closing around 80 points down to 10780 levels. Even though  Bears won today, looking at broader picture nothing much seems to have changed. Nifty is falling but the momentum is not visible on the downside and overall fall from 10950 levels seems like a corrective fall. We had a SL of 10775 ( for our longs initiated at 10650) and whole day market kept trading above 10775 ( broke it temporarily around 2:45 PM but the actual candle close on 30 min chart was above it) and in any case the actual closing of the day was above 10775 so we can carry the positions for now. Gap up/down days are always tricky to trade and one should carefully observe the momentum before taking a trading call on such days.

Technically speaking Nifty has a strong support at 10750-10830 levels which held on today. A break below todays low will warrant a change in overall strategy, however, if Nifty can hold this level ( probability is that it will) then we can soon expect a move up.

Trading Recommendations:
I updated the SL levels 2-3 times during the day in real time here, and for now I recommend that you carry your longs. As I mentioned Nifty has a strong support between 10750-10830 and stand will  be changed if Nifty breaks todays low. On the upside if Nifty crosses 10830-840 then I might add more longs. So keep watching this space :)

Nifty Real Time Trade update 5th Dec

SL (spot) adjustment:
Nifty might open with a gap down today because of overnight fall of 800 points in Dow and weak Asian Markets, but that doesn't change our strategy. Lower the SL to 10795 and exit if Nifty is trading below this level at 09:45 ( 30 mins into trade). No trading in first half hour.

Nifty short term movement might be impacted by Dow and global markets but overall the broad movement should remain same. However everything will change if weakness persists for entire day today.

Update (09:43 AM):  Nifty trading around 10800 ( above our SL of 10795) adjust SL to 10775. Usually SL should not be changed but in case of gap downs we might have to tweak it basis opening prices.


Update (03:00 PM): Market did go below 10775 levels but the actual candle close ( 30 min chart) was above this level (Currently trading around 10785). So long positions still stand. Keep carrying long positions. Will keep updating if there is any change. Ignore the trading of last 15-20 mins now and hold on to your long position.

 

Nifty View: Update for 5th Dec 2018

Market Update:
Nifty spent most of the day in narrow range between 10850-10900 before closing down around 15 points. Like I said in my previous post, Nifty is witnessing a bit of profit booking after running for almost 900+ point rally in last month or so. The last 300 point rally has come as a major surprise to many as majority was expecting Nifty not to cross 10700-10750 levels. But that's what markets are all about, they always surprise.

For now Nifty remains in a bullish trend but that doesn't mean we cant see a dip from here offcourse we can see a dip but it should be utilized to go long. When Nifty was at 10500 levels I had mentioned that Nifty is just setting itself nicely for a move up and now we have already seen a rally of 400+ from those levels. I feel nifty can go further up from these levels before a meaningful correction sets in.

Trading Recommendation:
Like mentioned earlier, keep holding the longs (initiated at 10650) with a SL of 10820. If this level is breached then sit out and wait for next trade.

For shorts, I have been saying this for last many days that no shorts are recommended at this level and one should get out from any short position he has in Nifty. You should get much better opportunity for shorting later.

Nifty View: Update for 4th Dec 2018

Market Update:
Nifty opened with a gap up of around 70 points (on the back of 500+ point increase in Dow futures and +ve Asian market cues) however couldn't sustain the momentum and drifted lower later in the day before closing almost at par. Todays gap up opening was used by many to book profits. There are many  smart investors who had gone long at 10500 levels and are now booking profits at higher levels (understandably so). Todays movement must be treated as a mere profit booking and nothing else, its healthy for Nifty to see some consolidation at this level. Now this profit booking may or may not continue for few more days. Important thing to note is that Nifty is still very much in bullish territory and we should not read too much into the fall from higher levels today. Call for the day is to maintain long positions with a stop of 10820 levels. After few days of consolidation we should see another leg up. As per my wave counts there is still some room left for Nifty to move up ( refer to my older posts for wave counts).

Trading Recommendation:
For now continue to hold the Long position initiated at 10650. SL is now 10820 (one candle close below on 15 min chart). If  10820 is breached then book profit and sit out and wait for next trade. We have already booked around 180 points profit in trade-1 last week ( 10600 buy and 10780 sell) and sitting on around 200 points profit on this trade. Continue this long position till SL hits. On the upside, I can give you many targets but those are not important so for now focus just on holding your longs.


 

Nifty View: Update for 3rd Dec 2018

Market Update:
Nifty opened again with a gap up but couldn't build up on it and kept consolidated throughout the day before closing 20 points up at 10875 levels. Nifty has broken above its crucial range of 10750-10850 and sustained above it throughout the day today which is a good sign for the bulls. Technically, markets may have started a new leg up and if it does consolidate here for few days ( or even a minor dip) then that should not be a worry sign for bulls. Bears on other hand, must look to cover their position as this market is definitely not favoring them at the moment. Trading wise we are sitting on good profits in the longs entered earlier this week and we are still holding them.

Trading Recommendations:
Like I mentioned in my last post, bulls can hold on to their longs ( even add more longs on the dips).We had entered long at 10600 and 10650 levels and part profit (25%) was booked at 10775 levels. I suggest all long positions can be held in Nifty with a SL of 10780. If you want to add more longs then must wait for some dip ( risk reward ratio has to be in your favor). No shorts are advised at this level and for existing shorts I have just one thing to say "Exit". Don't look at the price and just exit for now, you will get better opportunities to short again later.

Nifty View: Update for 30th Nov 2018

Market Update:
Nifty opened smartly with a gap up at 10800 and kept the momentum up for the whole day before closing at 10858 around 130 points up. I have been saying since last few days that 10750-10850 is a critical level as in October market had opened with a gap down at 10750 and till date this gap remained unfilled. Nifty took its time at this level and even dropped to 10500 after touching 10760 last week. We were long in Nifty from 10500 levels exited at 10700 and again went long at 10600 levels (position still open)

I also mentioned in my post yesterday that expiry day is crucial and will probably set the trend for Dec series. I had also mentioned that Nifty has probably finished the corrective downmove and should make a high above 10765 levels today to confirm that. Nifty obliged by opening above that level. There was a wave of short covering today which was evident throughput the day and this probably should continue for few more days. Its now a buy on dip market and all buys should be utilized to get into long positions. Technically Nifty might have started a new leg upwards but that doesn't mean you can go and long at any level, the entry point has to be a low risk zone.


Trading Recommendations:  We initiated two trades in last couple of days ( both trades were updated here live and in real time)

Trade-1 Buy @ 10595  50% sell @ 10735 and bal 50% sell today @ 10810 ( profit of around 160 points)

Trade-2 : Buy @ 10650 - Position is still open and not squared off

All longs can be held with a SL of 10780 now. No shorts are advised at this level and if you want to go long then wait for a dip else it will be risky to buy at current levels ( markets can anytime give a correction of 100 points).