Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 10th May 2022

  Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal above 17300

Nifty @ 16300 down 100 points: Weakness Continues

We have been mentioning in the previous few posts that market is likely forming an 'expanding triangle' which if true, can push towards a new low below 15750 (previous swing low). In last 5 trading sessions Nifty has lost more than 1000 points, and even fallen below the low point of A leg ( 16900) increasing the possibility of the entire move (from Oct last year) is one of 'expanding triangle'.

Nifty Weekly

Looking at the weekly charts it can be seen that both A & C leg previously had consumed around 9 weeks and E leg is just in its 6th week only so there is a possibility that weakness we are witnessing can continue for next 2-3 weeks more and in turn Push Nifty below 15750 ( falling towards 15K levels or even lower is  a possibility too). 

Overall its not looking positive for markets and its possible that markets try to suck in 'dip buyers' towards 16k levels and then falling some more from there. However there is a silver lining as well, this leg ideally should be the last leg of entire ongoing correction we have been witnessing since Oct last year (8 months) and once this gets over in next 2-3 weeks should offfer good opportunity to add long positions. So this is not the time for bottom fishing, not yet. That will come later for sure.

Trading wise one can continue to hold on to short positions with part profit bookings with  trailing stop loss of 16800 levels. market has strong resistance at 16800-17K levels for short term and 17300 for medium term and till that is crossed, weakness is likely to continue.

Trade Well!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 05th May 2022

 Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal above 17300

Nifty @ 16680 down 400 points- weakness to the fore, bears on top.

In previous post we had mentioned the probability of market forming an expanding bearish triangle ( where E>C>A> and D>B). We had also mentioned that even though 17100 has been supporting market this time its possible that its broken for good. The above analysis was in danger of proving incorrect as markets agains bounced and touched levels of 17400 (just below our reversal level) in next couple of trading sessions itself. However after touching 17400 markets once again reversed and this time the sharp was fall and severe and hs taken markets to below 16700 which means a fall of around 700 points in 2-3 trading sessions, reiterating the importance of technical analysis.

Movement of last 10 days (ever since Nifty hit a low of 16850 on 19th Apr) is suggesting some sort of consolidation which seems to have been over on Monday just below 17400. Now markets probably has opened a new leg on the downside which can take markets below 15750 ( previous swing low).

Remember, expanding triangle is a bearish pattern wherein the markets have not yet hit a low. As advised in previous post, both A & C (directional down leg) lasted for around 9-10 weeks and E leg is in its 4th week only so this downswing can continue for another 4-5 weeks ( entire May month atleast).

In Summary inspite of smart pullbacks we are witnessing from time to time market remains bearish and these pullbacks are just acting as 'bulltrap' which would ultimately result in more weakness. For now its advised to stay out of long position. Traders are used to seeing Nifty take support around/below 17K levels and then bouncing back but such resilience can not last forever. E leg of expanding triangle is usually the ugliest of all 3 legs hence maximum caution is warranted

Happy Trading!

 

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 28th Apr 2022

  Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal above 17460

Nifty @ 17038 down 160 points- Bulls losing plot.

In past few posts we have been maintaining that overall trend of the market is positive as long as 17100 holds. 17100 was broken couple of times last week but both times it was temporary and markets bounced back above it on the very next today. Today again 17100 is breached and markets have closed below it and the way markets have closed today (& its inability to bounce back) is indicating that probably now it has been breached for real.

Overall, we were expecting markets to form 'neutral triangle' wherein the last leg (E) should have finished somewhere around 17100 and that should have marked the end of correction which started in Oct last year from 18500 levels. However now theres another probability emerging. Threres a chance that the entire correction is developing like a "Expanding triangle" in which case "E" could be > "C" and if thats true then we can fall below 16K levels once again. 

Nifty Daily

Here C>A & D>B. If E leg remains smaller then "E" and  finishes above the low point of "A" leg ( which is around 16500 levels) then the arguement that its a neutral triangle still remains valid however if it keeps falling below 16500 then chances are its an expanding triangle wherein E>C>A and that opens up target as low as 15K.

Neutral triangle is a bullish pattern which assumes low is already made by markets whereas expanding triangle is a bearish pattern where in the low is yet to be created.

In current E leg, markets took 9 days to fall from 18K to 17K and now even after 6 days markets are just barely above 17K levels which is indicating that the upmove or pull back we witnessed in last few trading session was just a corrective move and once its done markets can open another leg on the downside. 

In summary, the way markets are going , further weakness if witnessed from here should not be taken lightly. Bottom fishing should be avoided for time being ( till the time its seen that market has taken a support and bounched back above 17450 levels). Both A & C leg lasted for 8-9 weeks and E leg is now 3 weeks old, so it can continue for another 5-6 week which means weakness might persists for entire May month atleast.

Happy Trading

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 19th Apr 2022

 Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal below 17100

Nifty @ 17175 down 300 points- Bears on top. 

We had discussed in previous post that "we could witness some hesitancy around 18100 levels and markets could drop towards 17650 levels and below that final support level exists at 17100 levels"

We had also expected markets to continue exhibiting strength but we were proved wrong and markets broke below 17650 levels last week and today it opened with a big gapdown to test 17100 levels. This was not a preferred scenario but since 17100 was protected today and is holding, for now, we will keep medium term trend to UP only.

Markets have been falling/ creating a lower low continuously since last 8 days. Historically we have seen markets usually falling for 9-10 continuous days before giving some sort of bounce back. Markets are getting oversold as well hence its likely that fall is arrested in next 1-2 days and we see some sort of bounce. What happens after the bounce will be critical. If bounce fizzle out soon and markets drop below 17100 levels again then chances are we could see this fall getting extended towards much lower levels. On the other hand, holding 17100 and moving back above 17550-600  levels could push Nifty back towards 18k levels.

Happy Trading! 

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 05th Apr 2022

 Medium Term Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal level below 17100

Nifty @ 18040 up 2%- 18K reclaimed, bulls stamp their authority

Discussed in previous post "........ a double bottom around 17K levels which suggest a solid base is formed around 17k levels from where markets might attempt to launch itself towards 17500-17800 levels"

Markets did even better and moved above 18k levels very quickly indeed ( todays move credited to HDFC twins which single handedly pulled markets above this key psychological level). Having said this, its not really a surprise that we have moved back above 18K levels. It was always on the card and a strong possibility and that is the reason we have been advising against going short and instead use all dips to buy. Since last 2-3 weeks Nifty has moved from sub 16k levels to back above 18k levels, justifying our stance.

Now going forward we can see some consolidation or hesitancy around at 18100-18300 levels (which is justified) however no major weakness is visible on the charts yet and it wont be a surprise if Nifty moves even further from here. On the downside, levels around 17650 level should act as immediate support and  could be a good support area to buy. If 17650 is broken then we can fall towards 17100-17200 levels which is the medium support area for this entire move (chances of this scenario playing out is slim though).

In Nutshell markets are strong and the strength likely to continue for now, small dips/consolidation should not be construed as sign of weakness so dont be fooled by them. Markets seems to have trapped Bears ( gap-up openings are indicative of that) hence any significant fall (which takes market below 17K levels) is looking less and less probable now.

Happy Trading

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 30th March 2022

 Medium Term Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal level @ 16800

Nifty @ 17325 up 103 points- Nifty continues to soar- More gains likely in near term

In our last post we had mentioned " What we are observing is that market could try and trap short traders ( around 16800-17K levels) and move up sharply from there." &

 "it seems markets has changed its medium term direction  and can move further up from here hence traders should be cautious in going short at these levels"

Now since our last update Nifty has moved up by around 450 points & confirms our view point and outlook was mostly in the right direction. Going forward we expect this positive bias to continue and (with intermittent pull backs which should act as buying opportunities). Market has already moved above a key resistance zone ( 16900-17000) which is very positive and has also posted a double bottom around 17K levels which suggest a solid base is formed around 17k levels from where markets might attempt to launch itself towards 17500-17800 levels. There are still many who are shorting the markets at every rise expecting lower levels however in my opinions such traders are likely to be disappointed & lose money.

Overall markets remains positive so we hold on to our view and expect markets to make further gains from here. So be cautious and if you are a trader & wants to make money then instead of 'sell on rise' try to 'buy on dips'. Levels wise  good support exists around 17050 -17100 levels for immediate level & below that @ 16850-16900 levels. As long as these levels hold, our view will remain intact.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 15th March 2022

 Medium Term Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal level @ 15800

Nifty @ 16870 up 240 points- Nifty exhibiting strength- likely to move further up in near term

In our last post we had posted a weekly Nifty/RSI chart for last 10-12 years where it was shown that generally bottom were formed when weekly RSI touched around 35-37 levels. Weekly RSI had dropped to around 36 last week ( when Nifty was around 15700) but recovered a bit to close the week at 40. Today its sitting at 45 levels which in many ways suggesting that probably correction we had been witnessing since last 3-4 months is ended now (or about to be ended soon).

We had also mentioned that if Nifty start moving above 16700 then it could mark the beginning of a fresh upmove. Nifty did move above 16700 levels last Thursday and retraced back a little however not much selling was observed after that and today it has moved back again above 16750 ( high of Thursday) which again is indicating that probably time has come for Nifty to move back again above 17K levels.

16900-16800 was an important support level for Nifty and same was broken after 3-4 months of multiple testing where markets dropped and took support at these levels many times. Such important supports when broken should not be tested again and again. Now what we are seeing is that markets dropped towards 15700 and now in a matter of 4-5 days has again come back to test this resistance (16800-900) zone. Now what is market trying to tell us here? If it was actually weak & wanted to go for a major crash then it would not hang around important resistance zone for too long. Is it waiting for traders to go short at important resistance level so that it can go down and all the traders can make money? no sorry to say but it does not work like that. Markets are not that easy. What we are observing is that market could try and trap short traders ( around 16800-17K levels) and move up sharply from there. If its not a short trap then market needs to move down below 15800 really really fast (looking slightly improbable from here).

In Nutshell, it seems markets has changed its medium term direction  and can move further up from here hence traders should be cautious in going short at these levels. Volatility is likely to remain high for some more time and sharp moves on both the sides are likely to continue but instead of 'sell on rise' traders would do well to 'buy on dips'.

Happy Trading!