Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 30th March 2022

 Medium Term Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal level @ 16800

Nifty @ 17325 up 103 points- Nifty continues to soar- More gains likely in near term

In our last post we had mentioned " What we are observing is that market could try and trap short traders ( around 16800-17K levels) and move up sharply from there." &

 "it seems markets has changed its medium term direction  and can move further up from here hence traders should be cautious in going short at these levels"

Now since our last update Nifty has moved up by around 450 points & confirms our view point and outlook was mostly in the right direction. Going forward we expect this positive bias to continue and (with intermittent pull backs which should act as buying opportunities). Market has already moved above a key resistance zone ( 16900-17000) which is very positive and has also posted a double bottom around 17K levels which suggest a solid base is formed around 17k levels from where markets might attempt to launch itself towards 17500-17800 levels. There are still many who are shorting the markets at every rise expecting lower levels however in my opinions such traders are likely to be disappointed & lose money.

Overall markets remains positive so we hold on to our view and expect markets to make further gains from here. So be cautious and if you are a trader & wants to make money then instead of 'sell on rise' try to 'buy on dips'. Levels wise  good support exists around 17050 -17100 levels for immediate level & below that @ 16850-16900 levels. As long as these levels hold, our view will remain intact.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 15th March 2022

 Medium Term Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal level @ 15800

Nifty @ 16870 up 240 points- Nifty exhibiting strength- likely to move further up in near term

In our last post we had posted a weekly Nifty/RSI chart for last 10-12 years where it was shown that generally bottom were formed when weekly RSI touched around 35-37 levels. Weekly RSI had dropped to around 36 last week ( when Nifty was around 15700) but recovered a bit to close the week at 40. Today its sitting at 45 levels which in many ways suggesting that probably correction we had been witnessing since last 3-4 months is ended now (or about to be ended soon).

We had also mentioned that if Nifty start moving above 16700 then it could mark the beginning of a fresh upmove. Nifty did move above 16700 levels last Thursday and retraced back a little however not much selling was observed after that and today it has moved back again above 16750 ( high of Thursday) which again is indicating that probably time has come for Nifty to move back again above 17K levels.

16900-16800 was an important support level for Nifty and same was broken after 3-4 months of multiple testing where markets dropped and took support at these levels many times. Such important supports when broken should not be tested again and again. Now what we are seeing is that markets dropped towards 15700 and now in a matter of 4-5 days has again come back to test this resistance (16800-900) zone. Now what is market trying to tell us here? If it was actually weak & wanted to go for a major crash then it would not hang around important resistance zone for too long. Is it waiting for traders to go short at important resistance level so that it can go down and all the traders can make money? no sorry to say but it does not work like that. Markets are not that easy. What we are observing is that market could try and trap short traders ( around 16800-17K levels) and move up sharply from there. If its not a short trap then market needs to move down below 15800 really really fast (looking slightly improbable from here).

In Nutshell, it seems markets has changed its medium term direction  and can move further up from here hence traders should be cautious in going short at these levels. Volatility is likely to remain high for some more time and sharp moves on both the sides are likely to continue but instead of 'sell on rise' traders would do well to 'buy on dips'.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 09th March 2022

  Medium Term Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal level @ 16700

Nifty @ 15985 up 160 points- pull back witnessed from lows

In our last post we had mentioned "inspite of so much weakness and skepticism, holding 16400-500 levels could push Nifty towards 17K-17100 levels. On the other hand continuous weakness below 16400 could drag nifty towards 16K and lower levels"

Last week holding 16500, Nifty had raised a possibility that a move towards 17K was possible however once nifty broke down below 16400-450 levels the chances of such a reversal became thin and Nifty went below 16k  (it even broke 15700 marginally) but then a sharp pull back at the end of day pulled markets back above 16K levels and from 150 points down at one stage became 150 points up.

Markets have been oversold recently hence its difficult to say if its actually just a technical bounce or some sort of serious pullback. VIX remains high (around 30s) and till the time it starts cooling off market will remain highly volatile. However point to be noted is the weekly RSI had touched 36 this morning and usually when RSI does that its close to making some sort of bottom. lets have a look at the chart below.

Nifty Weekly 2011-2022

Here one can see that in last 10 years or so whenever Nifty weekly RSI has touched mid 30s levels, markets have made some sort of bottom ( with an exception of Jan-2020 which was a covid thing). We had mentioned in one of our previous post that technical level of H&S pattern breakout (neckline at 16900) comes to 15100-15500 & at those level Nifty's weekly RSI will come to around 34-35 levels. 

So most probably areas around 15500 ( give or take 200-300 points here or there) could be the zone where market attempts to make some sort of bottom. Now please note that is not always easy to identify the bottom area in advance. Its only in the future when markets moves up from there that we are able to say that it was indeed a bottom area. Its also possible that bottom was already hit today itself, but till the time we see actuals evidence of markets bottoming out we are going to keep the mid term signal as down only (Earlier view that this could be a range bound market between 16500-18500 is not valid now).

In summary, ongoing weakness in markets could drag Nifty further towards 15400 levels and unless its start of a major bear cycle ( till now there is no evidence that it is one) markets should not fall much below these levels. On the upside holding above todays close and then moving above 16150-200 could be positive for Nifty. Major resistance is sitting at 16650 levels and till the time its not crossed, there is always a fear of markets turning down again.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 03rd March 2022

 Medium Term Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal level @ 17300

Nifty @ 16605 down 190 points- Weakness Continues

In our last post we had mentioned- ".......... Nifty has been making H&S pattern form Dec last year, neckline of same is sitting around 16850 levels. a break below neckline can open downside targets anywhere from16k to 15K levels. hence caution is still advised"

Market failed to move any higher & in next 4 trading sessions crashed to 16200 levels. 'H&S' neckline and much talked about support level of 16800-900 was broken with a huge gap-down. Though Nifty has bounced back from the recent low of 16200, its still trading below 16800-900 ( previous support turning into resistance now?).

Now moving forward we see a lots of skepticism and though quite a few things have been priced in by markets already some additional bad news could drag Nifty below 16k levels. Having said this, markets are hanging around just below 16800 levels which also raising a possibility that worst is probably priced in now and markets could start recovering slowly from here ( hanging just below important support areas after breaking them convincingly is also in a way positive only).

 On a high level, if you remember we had mentioned in previous posts that overall markets could trade in a broad range of 16500-18500. Till now market seems to be moving broadly in this range only. So going forward it will be interesting to see if markets manages to maintain this range inspite of negative news flow.

In summary, inspite of so much weakness and skepticism, holding 16400-500 levels could push Nifty towards 17K-17100 levels. On the other hand continuous weakness below 16400 could drag nifty towards 16K and lower levels. VIX is pointing at 30 which is pretty high so its best to avoid trading for next few days and wait for VIX to cool off.

Happy Trading!!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 21st Feb 2022

 Medium Term Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal level @ 17650

Nifty @ 17275 down 28 points- Fails to move above 17500

In our last post we had mentioned-

"Breaking of contracting triangle is a very bearish sign for markets. It confirms that initial fall from 18500 to 16450  was a trending move and the recovery we have seen after that (in the form of ABCDE triangle) was just a corrective move. This has opened up bearish targets for as low as 15500"

Now in last 4 days, markets did not exactly move in line with our expectations, and buoyed by news of Russians pulling from Ukraine, bulls pulled the markets back above 17300 levels on Tuesday itself thus negating the impact 'bearish contracting triangle'. Contracting triangles are a very reliable technical patterns and they work more often than not however this time it was not to be.

Having said this, inspite of a 500+ points pull back on Tuesday, Nifty failed to add more strength and closed just below Tuesday high which is keeping the bearish options (and lower targets) open still. Nifty may have been able to negate the contracting triangle, but there is another bearish pattern emerging on a slightly larger scale ( H&S pattern with a neckline at 16850-900) levels.

Nifty daily

In the chart above it can be seen that Nifty has been making H&S pattern form Dec last year, neckline of same is sitting around 16850 levels. a break below neckline can open downside targets anywhere from16k to 15K levels. hence caution is still advised. Usually from our experience, we have seen that any pull back (or pull down) which is based on news flow usually does not sustain and reverses back in coming trading session and if Tuesday's pull back of 500 points was all based on Russia-Ukraine news-flow then there is a high probability that markets will reverse from here. 

To keep bullish options make, Nifty must make a strong push above 17650 levels ( which was previous swing high). On daily charts and hourly charts Nifty is consistently making lower highs which is not instilling much confidence in the bulls camp for now.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 15th Feb 2022

 Medium Term Trend:👇(Down)

Nifty @ 16840 down 530 points- Black Monday & Weakness To The Core.

In our last post we had clearly warned that -

"Failure to sustain above 17600 levels is again pointing to the fact that market is still not out of woods and one more down-leg towards 17K-16800 is very much possible from here"

we had also mentioned that " with each successive days markets internals are getting weaker and the post budget move (17600-17800) is now appearing to look like one giant bull trap"

Last week we had also tweeted and posted  the below chart.

In the chart above, it can be seen that Nifty was potentially making a bearish contracting triangle,  confirmation of which was to come below BD line and same has come today. 

Breaking of contracting triangle is a very bearish sign for markets. It confirms that initial fall from 18500 to 16450  was a trending move and the recovery we have seen after that (in the form of ABCDE triangle) was just a corrective move. This has opened up bearish targets for as low as 15500 ( now not saying that Nifty will definitely going to touch it but its a possibility hence we must be prepared for it.

Nifty has been testing 16850-17000 support a lot of times already and ideally such important supports should not be tested again and again and though Nifty has closed just around this support zone, chances are it might not hold this time. If one is still holding on to long positions in a hope that 16850 will provide support yet again then please be careful.

Till now we had been saying that this could be a sideways phase for nifty (16500-18500) however now we have to change it. This is no sideways market, market is in grip of a strong bear wave and it will be premature to comment where it will end. 

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 07th Feb 2022

  Medium Term Trend:👇(Down)

Nifty @ 17516 down 44 points- Weakness Emerging Yet Again.

Nifty continues to remain volatile even after budget and made an attempt towards 18000 levels however it could not sustain above 17600-17700 levels and has again moved down towards 17500 levels.

When nifty moved above 17600 levels after budget, it looked good for a brief period & there were chances of market moving further towards 18K levels. However the failure to sustain above 17600 levels is again pointing to the fact that market is still not out of woods and one more down-leg towards 17K-16800 is very much possible from here. with each successive days markets internals are getting weaker and the post budget move (17600-17800) is now appearing to look like one giant bull trap.

Nifty now has a strong resistance placed at 17675-17700 levels and it must move above it quickly for any bullish scenario to emerge again on the other hand final support exists at 17340-17375 levels below which market could see sharp selling and move down to 17K or even lower levels once again.

In summary, markets are still looking very fragile & in case we do not start trading above 17700 levels but instead keep hitting lower lows and fall further below 17350 levels in next 1-2 trading sessions then more weakness is likely and market could see sharp dips once again. As mentioned in last update, market has taken support at 16800 levels already 2-3 times and this level ideally should not be tested again but if it does then the chances are it might not hold this time around.

Happy Trading!!