Medium Term Trend: 👈👉Sideways (Changes to up above 15200 & down below 14300)
Nifty @ 14867 Up 175 points - Nifty Exhibiting strength.
After moving strong on Friday & Tuesday, market dipped a little on Wednesday ( raising fear of one more drop as the trend has been recently) however it recovered yet again on Thursday to close the week with solid gains. Now in last few days market has recovered from 14300 levels to 14800 which might not be a lot but it has indicated that probably a breakout from this range ( on the upside) is likely very very soon. market is slowly but surely letting its intention know.
After moving strong on Friday & Tuesday, market dipped a little on Wednesday ( raising fear of one more drop as the trend has been recently) however it recovered yet again on Thursday to close the week with solid gains. Now in last few days market has recovered from 14300 levels to 14800 which might not be a lot but it has indicated that probably a breakout from this range ( on the upside) is likely very very soon. market is slowly but surely letting its intention know.
Regular readers of our blog are aware that all this while we have been maintaining that this is just a sideways correction and once it gets over, markets will move strongly in uptrend. We had also mentioned that its possible that we might spend entire March in a sideways trend. However now March is over and market is slowly but surely finding its feet. skepticism is high in markets once again ( due to rising corona cases) which might actually prove to be a catalyst for a bullish move from here. Even though the numbers are rising, there is no lockdown proposed and even the fatality seems to be decreasing so markets are most likely to ignore it and move ahead.
In the chart below, it can be seen that the entire correction ( of last 2 months) is marked as A-B-C Zigzag. A very common characteristic of sideways corrective moves is similarity in its legs. Here all legs lasted for roughly 9 days and even pricewise A & C legs are similar. Now what this 'similarity' in pattern does is it bring traders in a comfort zone. everyone knows market has a resistance in 15K-15200 levels and support at 14300-500 levels, but no sir that's not how markets trade, when markets begins predictable then its time to be extra cautious as its likely that market is cooking some sinister and big.
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| Nifty Daily |
Now I am not saying that breakout is confirmed on charts, its not yet, but at the same time the chances are slowly getting stacked in favor of bulls. If last week we were 60-65% sure then this week chances have increased to 70-75%. Nifty needs to break above 15250 in next 5 sessions to confirm the breakout. If not, then will analyze it and discuss in later posts.
Lastly we have many subscribers writing to us asking if this upmove from 14300-14800 is a bulltrap? The fact that everyone is worried & asking the same question is big indication that its not a bull trap.
Happy Holi & Happy Trading!
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