Medium Term Trend: 👇Down (Changes to up above 15200)
Nifty @ 14744 Down 186 points : Range Bound trade continues
Nifty continues to move in a range and after falling for 5 consecutive sessions, it registered a strong positive session. During the day markets were down by 150 points but it not only recovered all the losses but on top of it managed to post some handsome gains too.
In the last few trading sessions (inspite of of last 5 days fall), we continued to maintain its a sideways trend (with a negative bias). There is a reason for that. There is one interesting thing happening almost daily which is probably going unnoticed. Let me explain. During last few trading sessions, markets opening level and closing levels are not in sync meaning market closing trade is exact opposite of it opening trade. For ex on Monday, if opened 100+ positive and then started trading down and closed down -100. Now today again it opened 100-150 points down and managed to post a gain of 190 points in the day end. This has been the trend for last few trading session and (one of) a reason for us to believe that trend is sideways to down instead of a strong trending down move. In trending move market respect opening levels and flows in one direction. i.e, market opens 100 down and then close with a loss of 200+ points.
Ok now lets see what we had discussed in the last post-
Nifty broke below 14800 on Monday which suggested that current down-move or sideways range can get extended a bit lower (towards 14500-14700 probably).
Nifty below 14500 is looking unlikely for now but if we continue to see weakness below 14500 levels then we will have to reanalyze things.
Now as it turned out, 14500 was broken marginally intraday on Thursday & Friday but importantly the daily close level has come above it hence for now there is no change in our views and we continue to believe that markets are in sideways (with a downward bias) trend only. Fridays recovery is looking promising & if the positive trend continues and Nifty manages to take out 14880-900 levels then there will be a strong possibility that nifty is going to break (on the upside). above 14900 levels next key level is 15200 ( move above 15200 will confirm the break on upside) therefore trade accordingly.
Happy Trading
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