Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 6th Jul 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 10100)

Maintaining Strength: Nifty continued its upwawrd march and closed above 10600 with a gain of 50 odd points in friday.

Nifty has a good support now at 10400-50 levels and till that holds, it can continue to move higher and touch new highs. Levels around 10800-11000 are also possible in this current wave. However one negative thing we are seeing on the charts is that this moveup is not supported by RSI and we are seeing some negative divergence on hourly charts. But at the same time, on the price charts, there is nothing which is suggesting any weakness. So we have to be watchful and keep looking for any sign of weakness on price charts which might start creeping next week.

Going forward we need to see if if and when Nifty start to show weakness and (as per fridays close) move below 10400 levels could be crucial as that would be the first sign which could indicate that this current upmove is maturing till then if there is any dip which matures above 10450-10450 levels then same could be a good opportunity to enter long positions.

In summary Market trend remains up, break below 10450-400 would be the first sign that this upmove is now maturing and below that 10100 is the key level level now which would determine the medium term of the markets. Till then, trading wise, it makes sense to stay with current trend which is up for now.

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 3rd Jul 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 10000)

Exhibiting Strength: Nifty opened strong around 10500 and went on to touch 10600 levels. It finally closed around 10560 levels up 130 odd points.

In a matter of couple of days Nifty has moved from 10200 to 10600 levels i.e, a move of around 400 points. However we had already mentioned about it in last couple of posts and even tweeted yesterday when market was around 10400 levels for a possible target of 10550-10600 levels. Same is achieved already today.

We have raised our medium term pivotal level to 10K now. Nifty shouldnt break below 10k unless its changing its medium term once again.

Now moving forward we do expect market to find some resistance in 10600-650 zone but as long as 10400 holds, the current upmove is likely to stay (with occasional volatility). This month series is a big series with 6 weekly expiries. Its noticed that in big months Nifty usually moves with lots of volatility that means going up and down many times.

Now that Nifty has moved to 10600 levels the levels around 10350-400 should hold and in case Nifty break below it then it can and test 10K levels. On the upside levels around 10800-10900 are very much possible (as long as 10400 holds).

Overall the entire move from 7500 till now is still looking like a 'wedge' but its becoming more and more prominent which is very surprising. Anyways only a break below 10K levels could confirm the completion of wedge.

In Nutshell, market trend remains up from all perspective hence shorts should be avoided (as long as 10400-350 holds). Even when markets are looking ripe for correction they have a tendency to go on and on. So its better to stay with trend rather than take a contra trade. as far as trading is concerned , we had gone long at 10400 levels and booked part profit today around 10600 levels.

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 2nd Jul 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 9800)

 11400 crossed: Nifty opened but remained strong and unlike previous days, didn't see any selling pressure from 11400 levels and managed to closed above it with a gain of around 130 points.

In last post we had mentioned that though bias is still negative but the way Nifty is trading around 10200-10400 its possible that all the negative energy is absorbed already in this sideways correction and if 10225 is not broken soon then markets can start moving up again. Time was running out for bears and inspite of spending 4-5 days in corrective move they failed to break below 10200 and when bear fails bulls take over that's the rule.

For a correction to get over, a price wise fall is not always required and some times markets complete correction by moving sideways in a volatile manner. Now there is a possibility that correction that started from 10550 levels got over at 10200 levels and Nifty is ready to make another move around 10500 or higher levels. Nifty has a good resistance around 10475 levels and that could be the last hurdle for bulls and if crossed in next 1-2 trading sessions then we can see higher levels again in Nifty.

Todays close has come above 10400 levels which is pointing towards a strong possibility that bulls are back in game however they need to conquer 10475 levels in coming session and that should clear the way towards 10550-10600 levels. We can see another correction once market reaches 10600+ levels, but that is something we will leave for later.

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