Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 16th Jun 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 9500)

Slides Again: Nifty After a strong recovery on Friday, Nifty once again tumbled to close at 9810 levels with a loss of 160 points.

Fridays sharp recovery had rekindled the hope of bulls making a strong pull back however todays weekness has once again put clouds over the short term trend. Today Nifty has made a close below 9850 ( previous swing low) which is not a positive sign.

In the last update we were reasonably optimistic however things have changed slightly today. We had mentioned in previous post that- "undertone of the markets remains strong and there is a likelihood that Nifty start moving up towards 10300-10500 again. We do not have confirmations on the charts but there are indications. Follow up buying above 10000-10050 levels on Monday will be very positive for the markets"

Nifty failed to move above 10k, which was a key requirement and even broke below 9850-9800 levels, this has raised some strong doubts about the sustainability of the recovery we saw on Friday. Further weakness below 9750-9850 levels could once again push markets towards the lows of 9500. 

In Nutshell, todays fall has come against the run of play and is not a good sign for the bulls. Markets needs to make a swift recovery above 9900-9950 levels to repair the damage inflicted by bears today. On the other hand, constant weakness around current levels (and if markets sustains below 9800-9750 levels for too long) could push Nifty back towards 9500-9550 levels ( Fridays low) and a break of these levels could be extremely bearish and put additional selling pressure on the markets hence be cautious.

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 15th Jun 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 9500)

Sharp Recovery: Nifty opened with a huge gap-down today around 9550 levels but staged a remarkable recovery to close in green at 9970. Up 70 points.

Dow crashed big time yesterday and as a result Nifty opened with a whopping 300+ gap down today. Many traders took todays fall as the resumption of down trend believing that pullback got completed at 10300 levels and Nifty now has resumed its fall towards lower levels.

However we had mentioned yesterday "A fall from 10300 towards 10K was expected and it has come now, now probably the most of the correction is done at these levels and markets could try and make some sort of recovery"  we had also mentioned that "further weakness below this could be indicative of some pattern changes hence needs to be observed carefully".

Today markets did break below 9850-9900 but it was only temporary and intraday. At closing levels markets have managed to crawl back above 9900 levels. Even in the morning session the lows hits were around 9500 levels which is the final support level and last line of  defence for this intermediary upmove. In any case the last support level was held and Nifty moved back above 9900 levels hence nothing changes for now.

Also since last 7-8 days todays is the first day where Nifty has managed to closed strongly above its opening high. All these factors are suggesting that undertone of the markets remains strong and there is a likelihood that Nifty start moving up towards 10300-10500 again. We do not have confirmations on the charts but there are indications. Follow up buying above 10000-10050 levels on Monday will be very positive for the markets.

In Nutshell, Nifty has defended crucial area of 9850-9900 levels on closing basis and that raises the possibility of nifty moving back towards 10300-10500 in coming trading sessions. On the downside, bears needs to make a strong push below 9800 and then 9700 for the down move to gather momentum again else Bulls are likely to seize initiative soon.

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 12th Jun 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 9500)

Slide Continues:Nifty continue to fall and even broke below 9900 levels momentarily today to close at 9902 , down 210 points.

In the previous post(s) we had highlighted that since last few days Nifty is not able to sustain its opening highs and is continuously moving down. Well the same trend continues even now and market continues to move down. We had also mentioned that "levels around 9990 and 9910 becomes very important. Incase market continue to fall then levels around 10K and below 9k will become critical from short term perspective."

Now today we tested 10k today, broke below it and touched 9k levels and closed there too. Now levels around 9900 should be the bottom levels for short term perspective and we should not be seeing much more weeknes from these levels (unless something else is changing on the charts from medium term perspective). Levels around 9850-9900 was the previous swing high and we expect some sort of support here so these should ideally hold. However if we see continuous weakness below todays low and 9850 levels then it could mean that something else is cooking.

A fall from 10300 towards 10K was expected and it has come now, now probably the most of the correction is done at these levels and markets could try and make some sort of recovery however further weakness below this could be indicative of some pattern changes hence needs to be observed carefully. Dow future is trading 600 points down ( as we update this post) and probably is the reason for  weakness in the markets today.

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 10th Jun 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 9500)

Takes a beating:Nifty opened flat and made another attempt to cross above 10300 but failed. It collapsed in second half to close at 10045 levels, with a loss of >100 points.

So from 100 points+ to 100 points down, that's how Nifty traded today. However we have been warning our readers since last 2 days about this possible fall. Yesterday we had mentioned in our post "Nifty is making some interesting pattern in last few days which is suggesting that probably ( I say probably) some bit of correction/sideways movement is still pending".

There were chances of market falling and same has materialized today. We had also mentioned that markets are not able to trade/close above its opening prices and that our own momentum indicator is showing loss of momentum which is not a very positive sign. We had squared off our longs around 10300 yesterdays and suggested that existing long positions should be exited below 10140 levels (below yesterdays low). Today markets have fallen further 100 points after breaking below 10140.

Now going forward, the short term charts for Nifty is damaged, there is no doubt it it. Today was the 5th day in a row where Nifty failed to close above its opening price and that is not a very good sign. For bulls to make a strong comeback, its important that Nifty start closing above its opening prices ( we need atleast 2-3 such closes). So even though the overall trend of the Nifty remains up, the short term trend has become a bit jittery and can cause some more weakness in the markets.

Now levels around 9990 and 9910 becomes very important. Incase market continue to fall then levels around 10K and 9900 will become critical from short term pespective. Holding these levels can bring another upmove in the markets. On the upside if we start trading positive then we need to cross 10300 levels with strong momentum and force then only we will be able to see further gains. hence we need to observe markets and trade accordingly.

To join our Nifty buy/sell whatsapp message service during market hours, pls click⤇ Nifty Buy/Sell Algorithm  or whatsapp @ 9319321906

To see our recent trading calls (as soon as a position is closed, its updated here )⤇  Past Trade summary

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