Nifty Algo Trade Summary 24th 2020 Feb onwards

Last updated till 21st Jun 2021

21st Jun 21: Buy call @ 15716. Position open

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14th Jun 21: Buy call @ 15705. Part profit booked @ 15870 on 15th Jun, & bal position exited @ 14750 on 16th Jun .Max gain 165 points

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11th Jun 21: Buy call @ 15820. SL triggered on 14 Jun @ 15640 .Loss 180 points

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03rd Jun 21: Buy call @ 15662. Part profit booked @ 15711 on 4th Jun, @15741 on 7th Jun, @ 15800 on 9th jun & bal position exited @ 14647 on same day (9th Jun) .Max gain 138 points

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21st May 21: Buy call @ 15063. Position closed @ 15166 on same day. Max gain 103 points

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17th May 21: Buy call @ 14820. Part profit booked @ 14918 on same day, @15092 on 18th May, @15450 on 28th May & bal position exited @ 15500 on 2nd Jun .Jackpot profit 680 points

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06th May 21: Buy call @ 14715. Part profit booked @ 14834 on 7th May, @14920 on 10th May & bal position exited @ 14765 on 12th Apr .Max gain 205 points

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27th Apr 21: Buy call @ 14625. Part profit booked @ 14875 on 28th Apr, @15010 on 29th Apr & bal position exited @ 14775 on 30th Apr .Max gain 385 points

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15th Apr 21: Buy call @ 14590. Part profit booked @ 14680 on 16th Apr & bal position Exited @ 14290 (gapdown open) on 19th Apr .Gain of 90 points on part & Loss of 300 points on Bal

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06th Apr 21: Buy call @ 14755. Part profit booked @ 14850 on 7th Apr, @14925 on 8th Apr & bal position exited @ 14795 on 9th Apr .Max gain 170 points

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30th Mar 21: Buy call @ 14850. Exit call @14675 on 5th Apr .Loss 175 points

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26th  Mar 21: Buy call @ 14478. Part profit booked @14540 on same day & bal position exited @14645on 30th March .Max profit earned 167 Nifty points

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16th Mar 21: Sell call (additional) @ 14965. Profit booked @14862 on 17th Mar. Max profit earned 103 Nifty points

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15th Mar 21: Sell call @ 14823. Part profit booked @14786 & @14709 on 17th Mar, @14601 on 18 Mar, @14377 on 19th march & final exit call @ 14740 on 19th march. Max profit earned 446 Nifty points

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09th  Mar 21: Buy call @ 15115. Part profit booked @15210 on 10th Mar & @15315 on 12th Mar & bal position exited @ 15065 on 12th Mar. Max profit earned 63 Nifty points

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04th  Mar 21: Buy call @ 15088. Part profit booked @15151on same day. Exit call @ 15021 on 5th Mar .Max profit earned 63 Nifty points

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26th Feb 21: Sell call @ 14787. Part profit booked @14684, 14620 & 14570 on same day & bal position exited at 14877 .Max profit earned 217 Nifty points

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19th Feb 21: Sell call @ 14950. Part profit booked @ 14770 & 14692 on 22nd feb & bal position exited at entry level.Max profit earned 258 Nifty points

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05th Feb 21: Buy call @ 15294. Part profit booked at 15400 level on 16th Feb & balance long exited @ 15233 on 17th Feb.Max profit earned 106 Nifty points

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05th Feb 21: Buy call @ 14938. Part profit booked at 15125 level on 8th Feb, @15202 on 9th Feb & balance long exited @ 15030 in 10th Feb.Max profit earned 264 Nifty points

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25th Jan 21: Sell call @ 14285. Part profit booked @ 14115 on 27 Jan, @13835 on 28th Jan, @13640 on 29th Jan. Bal profit booked @ 14025 on 1st Feb. Max profit earned 645 Nifty points

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20th Jan 21: Buy call @ 14563.Part profit booked @ 14660 on same day &14718 on 21st Jan. Bal Position exited @14540 (almost at par) on 21s Jan .Max profit earned 155 Nifty points

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23rd Dec: Buy call @ 13571-Part profit booked @ 13698 & 13740 on 24 Dec, @ 13847 on 28 Dec,@13940 on @9 Dec,@14017 on 1st Jan & Final exit call @14508 on 14 Jan. Jackpot Profit earned 937 Nifty Points

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18th Dec: Buy call @ 13658.Part profit booked @ 13714 &13750 on 17th Dec. Bal Position exited @13678 on 18th Dec. Max profit earned 92 Nifty points

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15th Dec: Sell call @ 13493.Position exited @13565 on same day. Loss 72 Nifty Points

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27th Nov: Buy call @ 13015- Part profit booked @ 1115 on 1st Dec, @13171 on 3rd Dec, @ 13221 on 4th Dec, @13480 on 9th Dec & balance position exited @13425 on 11th Dec .Max profit earned 465 Nifty points

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23rd Nov: Buy call @ 12952- Part profit booked @ 13045 on 24th Nov, @13143 on 25th Nov & for balance position SL triggered & exited @12890.Max profit earned 191 Nifty points

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02nd Nov: Buy call @ 11706 Part profit booked @11813 on 3rd Nov, @12067 on 5th nov, @ 12445 on 9th Nov & bal position exited @ 12800 on 19th November. Jackpot Profit earned 1,094 Nifty Points

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04th Nov: Buy call @ 11775 Part profit booked @11876 on same day & 100% profit @12067 on 5th Nov 2020.Max profit earned 292 Nifty points

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27th Oct: Buy call @ 11895-Position exited @11775 on 28th Oct. Loss 120 Nifty Points

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19th Oct: Buy call @ 11875- Part profit booked @11985 and balance long exited @11809 on 21st Oct. Max profit earned 110 Nifty points

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01st Oct: Buy call @ 11372- Part profit booked @11505 on 5th Oct, @11640 on 6th Oct, @11734 on 7th Oct and balance long exited @11840 on 14th Oct. Max profit earned 468 Nifty points

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21st Sep: Sell call @ 11318 -Part profit booked at 11255 on same day, @11155 on 22nd Sep,@10960 on 24th Sep & Bal short exited @ 11056 on 25th Sep.Max profit earned 358 points

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14th Sep: Buy call @ 11536. Part profit booked at 11610 on 16th Sep & bal position exited on 17 Sep @11520  Max profit earned 74 points

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04th Sep: Sell call @ 11370. Part profit booked @ 11314 on same day @11275 on 8th sep, @ 11185 on 9th Sep. Bal short exited at 11350 on 10th Sep. Max profit earned 185 points

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21st Aug: Buy call @ 11411. Part profit booked at 11467 on same day, 25 aug @11522, 27 aug @ 11601 & bal position exited on 31st Aug @ 11550 Max profit earned 190 points

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18th Aug: Buy call @ 11336. Part profit booked at 11390 on same day & 18 aug @11457 & bal position exited on 20th Aug near entry point Max profit earned 121 points

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06th Aug: Buy call @ 11225. Part profit booked at 11326 on 10th Aug & bal position exited on 14th Aug @11235 Max profit earned 101 points

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31st Jul: Sell call @ 11048. Part profit booked at 10912 on same day& bal position exited on 4th Aug @11067 Max profit earned 136 points

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17th Jul: Buy call @ 10801 Position open, part profit booked on same day @10885, 20Jul @ 10990, 21 Jul 11135 & 23 Jul 11210. Bal position exited at 11105 on 24th Jul.Max profit earned 409 points  

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16th Jul: Sell call @ 10600 exit call @ 10805: Loss 205 Nifty Points

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15th Jul: Buy call @ 10804 exit call @ 10670: Loss 134 Nifty Points

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14th Jul: Short/sell call @ 10708, part profit booked at 10600 on same day. Exit call @ 10798:Max profit earned 108 points  
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9th Jul: Short/sell call @ 10757 exit call @ 10820: Loss 63 Nifty Points
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01st Jul: Long entered @ 10405. Part profit booked on 2 Jul @10593, 6 jul @10715 & bal position exited @ 10710.Max profit earned 310 points  
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24th Jun: Short/sell call @ 10320. Part profit booked on 25th Jun @ 10200, Position exited at 10340 on 1st Jul: Max profit earned 120 points

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19th Jun: Long/Buy call @ 10088- Part profit booked on 22 Jun @10325, 23 Jun 10475, 24 Jun @10520 & bal exited @ 10325. Max profit earned 432 Points
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15th Jun: Short/sell call @ 9740. 18th Jun Exit call @ 9993: Loss 253 Nifty Points
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5th Jun: Long/Buy call @ 10127. Part profit booked on 08th Jun @ 10320 & balance long exited @ 10293: Max Profit earned 193 Nifty Points
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20th May: Long/Buy call @ 8949. Part profit booked on  26th May @ 9155, 27th May @9250, 29th May @ 9585, 1st Jun @ 9830 & Exit call @ 10060. Jackpot Profit earned 1,110 Nifty Points
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24 Feb- 18 May

Date	Trade Signal	Trade Progress/Outcome	Max profit/(loss)
24-Feb	Sell call @ 11945	Nifty went till 11036. Exit call @ 11330	909 to 615 points
04-Mar	Buy call @ 11280	Exit call @ 11287	NIL
05-Mar	Buy call @ 11312	Exit call @ 10645	(665 points)
13-Mar	Buy Call @ 9862	Nifty went till 10200. Exit call @ 9230	338 to (662) poiints
20-Mar	Buy Call @8237	Nifty went till 8850. Exit call @ 8000	613 to (237) points
24-Mar	Buy call @ 7915	Exit call @ 7780	(135) points
24-Mar	Buy call @ 8060	Nifty went till 9100 . Exit call @ 8265	1040 to 195 points
31-Mar	Buy call @ 8562	Exit call @ 8382	(180) points
07-Apr	Buy call @ 8570	Nifty went till 9200. Exit call @ 8890	630 to 311 points
17-Apr	Buy call @ 9275	Nifty went till 9400. Exit call @ 9005	125 to (270) Points
22-Apr	Buy call @ 9087	Nifty went till 9350. Exit call @ 9161	263 to 111 points
24-Apr	Sell call @ 9175	Exit call @ 9300	(125) points
27-Apr	Buy Call @ 9325	Exit call @ 9556	331 points
11-May	Buy Call @ 9336	Nifty went till 9450. Exit call @ 9225	114 to (110) points
13-May	Buy Call @ 9460	Exit call @ 9165	(295) points
15-May	Sell call @ 9141	Nifty went till 9040, Exit call at 9151	100 to (10) points
18-May	Buy call @ 8912	Exit call @ 8850	(62) points

Important- Pls note our Algo's range ( entry exit point) is defined by volatility (higher the volatility , higher the range of SL or exit point). During March/Apr'20 Volatility was at insane levels ( >60) hence sometimes exit calls were way below entry points (gapup/down of 500-700 point was the norm those days). During such times , its advisable to trade in extremely light qty (if must) and regular profit booking should be done at every stage. For ex. 24 Mar Buy call given at 8060 and Nifty went till 9100 ideally one should have booked 75 %  profit by then and not wait for the exit call. 1000 point or even 50% of it i.e, 500 points is a jackpot profit in one trade and 75% of the position  should have been booked before exit call.

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 21st May 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↓Down (Changes to up above 9800)
Strength Returns: Nifty opened above 8900 and after trading around 8950 levels for most part of the day, it jumped and moved over  9000 levels to close with a gain of ~200 points.

In last post we had mentioned " one should be vigilant & careful if he is on short side as markets can reverse and trap shorts on the wrong side anytime".

Today we did see some sharp reversal back above 9000 levels. Inspite of Nifty breaking below 8950 we were hopeful of a comeback. There were couple of strong reasons for same, firstly the entire fall of last 10-12 days from 9800 levels is looking like a corrective move. secondly we pointed out important support levels (ref yesterdays post) for near term and even though Nifty had breached it marginally, it was not very convincing and lastly we highlighted the exact pattern markets had made in May 2018. That was a similar pattern and after it ended , markets started moving up.

So now that we have made a close above 9000 levels, can we expect Nifty to move back to 9500 levels? I think we can, there are indications beginning to appear on charts which are suggesting a strong bull run in coming days. A big resistance markets will come across is 9250-9350 "island reversal area" and Nifty must take it out. Once this gap is closed then we can expect markets to move back towards 9500-9800 or even higher levels. Personally I wont be surprised if Nifty manages to move above 9300 levels this time and then even 9800 levels in coming few weeks.

We entered long position today around 8950 levels and recommend holding on to long positions with a SL of 8830 levels. If the current consolidation is over then we should be moving strongly in Up direction ( with minor pull backs ofcourse). For bears to have upper hand again, markets must make a sharp U turn immediately, more it trades above 9K levels, more stronger Bulls will become.

Happy Trading

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 20th May 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↓Down (Changes to up above 9800)

Below 8900: Nifty opened higher but couldn't sustain above 9000 and gave up more than 130 points from days high to settle at 9880 levels. Up  60 odd points.

Now we have a second consevutive close below 8950 levels so looking at chart there is very little going on for the bulls now and everything is pointing in the favor of bears only. Having said this, let me rewind and take you to May 2018 ( 2 years back).

Nifty

Left hand side is the chart for the period May 2018 (exactly 2 years before) and on the right hand side we have current chart. Now we couldn't help but notice stark similarities between both the charts. In 2018 Nifty had seen a sharp fall below 10500 and after that a pull back which was sort of 'rounding top' formation. During this period Nifty kept on sliding from higher level but continued to maintain a corrective trend and held on to the initial lows. Now currently we are seeing the same thing happening. Nifty continues to move in a zig-zag and in corrective pattern (similar to rounding top).

In 2018 when the correction got over, Nifty saw a steady move towards higher level (11k+). Now I am not saying that same thing is going on to happen now as well but it certainly is a possibility. 'History repeat itself' is one of the important parameters of technical analysis and should not be ignored. Even though there is nothing on charts yet,  things can change quickly, bears are getting complacent and whenever any side become complacent, things change very fast in markets.

Now lets have a look at another chart.

Nifty

Here, I have drawn a upward moving channel and Nifty is just trading on the lower side ( broke it slightly yesterday). I have also drawn 2 horizontal support lines (in blue) and 2 resistance lines (in red). Currently Nifty is just trading at or slightly below the first support line. Second support zone below this level comes at 8000-8200 levels hence its veryimportant for Nifty to move sharply up from here else we can go down deep in -ve territory.  On the upside first clear resistance is around 9350 zone and above that 9700 levels. If Nifty start moving up and takes out 9350 levels, then chances are that it will take out 9700 levels as well.

So even though we don't have much positive on charts yet, the nature of fall or the nature of Nifty movement for last few weeks is indicating that markets are probably consolidating before it starts a new rally or bull move.Everytime a consolidation ends Markets usually sees a clear and sharp move on the upside. Hence once should be vigilant & careful if he is on short side as markets can reverse and trap shorts on the wrong side anytime.

Happy Trading

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 19th May 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↓Down (Changes to up above 9800)

Weakness: Nifty opened flattish and broke below the key support zones of 8950-9000 levels to close at 8825 levels, down ~300 points.

In last few posts we have been mentioning that 8950-9000 is a very good support zone and we do not expect it to be broken easily. Now today it has broken conclusively however since its such a critical support zone, we need to see one more close below this level ( and then weekly close) to conclude that its broken for good.

We all know what happened when Nifty had closed above 9850 on expiry day. 9800 was such a important resistance level and though Nifty managed to close above it, it failed to give 2 consecutive close above it and has declined more than 1000 points from there. Overall market continues to be in down trend but levels around 8900 is a strong support zone and probably the last hope for the bulls. If its broken successfully and conclusively then there will be very little left for the bulls to look forward too.

Sustaining below 8900 could push Nifty back towards 8500-8000 levels and if that happens then the chances of this correction extending for a long period (time wise) will become strong and that will not be a positive sign.

There is still a chance that the fall we are seeing since last few days is just a move by markets to remove weak/short term traders who entered on the back of economic package news. However to prove this scenario right, we must make a fast (very fast) recovery from these levels towards 9200-9300 levels. at the time of writing this post SGX is trading at 100+ points so it needs to be seen if it can build on further gains and propel itself higher back towards 9200-9300 range.

Though every thing is looking bleak at the moevemnt, its still too early to conclude anything. We recommend observing markets for few more sessions before concluding anything Nifty can still surprise by giving a strong move on the upside from here.

Happy Trading

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 18th May 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↓Down (Changes to up above 9800)

Flat Day: Nifty dropped to 9050 levels but held on to it and managed to close flat at 9140 levels.

We had mentioned in yesterdays post that as long as Nifty defends 8950-9000 support we can still hope for a fresh bull run. Defending this support zone and then filling the gap down area at 9250-9350 could push Nifty once again towards 9500 and 9800 levels.Today Nifty did test 9050 levels and moved up a little so its possible that support is tested already or at the same time one more fall towards 8950-9000 level can not be ruled out.

On daily charts, Nifty formed a hammer pattern which is a bullish pattern. Holding on todays high and then closing the gap area at 9250-9300 will bring bulls back in the game. Its possible that markets have set their eyes at a higher target ( 10K+) and all this choppy and sideways movement is just a ploy to get weak traders out of market . The fall of last 2-3 days we are seeing (after the economic package was announced) is also pointing towards this scenario only.

Keep in mind the package announced is indeed positive for the markets but sometimes markets do not react to positive news immediately but they take their time and create a perception that its not important. They fall a little and short term traders start moving out and once the euphoria around the news dies, then only market start moving up. I am not saying this is how its happening presently but a strong possibility exists.

If you see the rise from 8950 levels (21Apr) to 9870 (30th Apr) had taken 7 trading sessions and since then (in May series) Nifty has taken 10 days already and its still trading above 8950 level. Inspite of consuming more time the fall is not able to retrace 100% of the rise. This is also suggesting that probably the entire fall from 9800 levels is just a corrective move.

Eventually we expect 9300-9500 levels to give way but the timing is something market only decide. It might decide to spend some more time at current levels or it might decide to fall little more from here but ultimately it should move up.

Overall the trend continues to be down for now and any larger upmove is expected only once Nifty crosses above 9800. At the same time  its likely that major portion of the correction already got over at 8000-8500 levels and we do not see more correction ( price wise) but time wise correction can take place (and is happening actually). Since last one month, markets are trading roughly at the same level.

Moving into next week we need to see if 8950-9000 level holds or give up and if holds then whether markets are able to fill the gap down area  of 9250-9350 zone. That will give us further insights.

Happy Trading

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