Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 23rd Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11100)

Nifty Pull Backs: : Nifty opened positive around 11700 today but saw some bit of profit booking at higher levels and fell below 11600 levels. It closed at 11590 levels ( down 70 points).

In previous post we had clearly mentioned that even though the near term trend of the market remains on the upside some amount of pull back or profit booking is likely form these levels as markets are approaching overbought zone from short term perspective. also Nifty had runup quite a bit in last 7-8 tradng sessions so the downmove is totally on the expected lines.

Going forward, now that we have broken below 11600, sustained trading below 11600 could invite a bit more selling and push Nifty down a bit more from here. On the downside 11400-450 zone should offer a strong support but even its broken, Nifty can find support anywhere in 11100-11550 zone. Its a big range hence traders are advised not to go short but wait for right opportunity to go long ( on the first sign of a breakout). Overall trend remains up as long as 11050 level stays intact.

From trading perspective we exited our longs @ 11690 levels in the morning session today itself. below are some of the messages/chat excerpts we shared with our subscribers ( note these are not 100% messages)

01/10/2019, 13:53 - : *Nfty 11350 buy one part*
01/10/2019, 14:31 - : Nifty 11300.keep holding all longs... Dont panic
10/2019, 09:18 - : Keep holding all longs, and wait for msg to add more longs
04/10/2019, 14:41 - : *nifty 11215 continue to hold all longs*
04/10/2019, 15:29 - : 11170. Carry all Longs for next week
9/10/2019, 09:16 - : Good morning nifty trading flat. Continue holding all longs. Will add one more part long later.
09/10/2019, 12:02 - : Nifty 11220. Up 95 points Keep holding longs, will add more longs above 11240 levels..
09/10/2019, 14:16 - :*nifty 11250 buy one part / sell nifty 11200 PE @ 150*
09/10/2019, 15:02 - : Nifty 11320. Carry all long positions for tomorrow (less risky traders can book some partial profits)
10/2019, 09:40 - : Nifty 11360. Up 120+ Continue holding all longs. Less risky traders can book partial profits
15/10/2019, 12:08 - : *nifty 11200 put book profit at cmp 79*
5/10/2019, 20:19 - : <Media omitted>
16/10/2019, 15:13 - : Nifty 11470. Carry long positions for tomorrow
17/10/2019, 10:12 - : Good morning, nifty continue to trade positive at 11475 levels. Continue holding 2 parts long
17/10/2019, 10:13 - : Nothing to be done for now. We need to observe mkts for some time before taking fresh trading calls. We hold longs with a SL of around 11375 levels now.
17/10/2019, 13:44 - : Nifty 11540. Nothing to be done, continue to carry long positions (less risk traders can book some more partial profits)
17/10/2019, 15:16 - : Nifty 11590 carry balance long (2 parts) for tomorrow.
17/10/2019, 15:33 - : http://.com/2019/10/nifty-analysis-outlook-and-trend-for_17.html?m=1
18/10/2019, 09:19 - : Good morning, nifty trading flat @11565. Keep holding 2 parts long
18/10/2019, 09:22 - : SL for existing longs raised to around 11475 levels now.
18/10/2019, 12:02 - : Nifty 11640. Inching towards recent high of 11695. 
18/10/2019, 12:03 - : Continue to hold balance long position.
18/10/2019, 15:19 - : Nifty 11660. Hit a high of 11685 (just 10 points shy of new high). Carry bal long positions for next week.
18/10/2019, 15:59 - : http://.com/2019/10/nifty-analysis-outlook-and-trend-for_18.html?m=1
22/10/2019, 09:19 - : *nifty 11685 book profit one part*
22/10/2019, 09:38 - : *nifty 11665 book profit bal one part*
22/10/2019, 09:38 - : No open position. Wait for next trade
22/10/2019, 09:48 - : Some profit booking is likely from here.
22/10/2019, 13:57 - : Nifty 11617. As expected, some pull back from 11700 levels. Fall can stretch if nifty breaks below xxxxx levels
22/10/2019, 13:57 - : Nothing to be done for now.
22/10/2019, 13:58 - : Preserve profits, will advise when have to enter again

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 22nd Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11100)

Upward March Continues: : Nifty posted yet another day of strong move and closed at 11660 up 75 points.

Overall Nifty continues to move in line with our expectations and continue to scale new highs on daily basis. We have been recommending going long and advising strongly against entering into short positions for quite some time and for now the strategy seems to be paying rich dividends.

Now lets just take a step back and see the movements of last few days. Nifty had hit a high of 10695 few days back and from there it moved to 11090 in 10 trading sessions. Since then Nifty has been moving up (today was 7th day of upmove). If nifty goes on to cross 10695 levels in next couple of trading sessions then it will further strengthen the case of Nifty moving further up from here ( nifty almost crossed this level today hit a high of 10686 just 10 points short).

Having said this, though the uptrend remains on and is likely to get stronger in the times to come , there is always a likelihood of Nifty starting a corrective wave and pulling back slightly. Its beginning to get slightly overbought and the momentum is also falling ( inspite of strong upmoves we have seen in last 1-2 days) hence we dont rule a possibility of some sideways move or some sort of correction in days to come.It may come from current levels or Nifty can rise further 100-200 points and then correct but again, if the correction comes then it could provide an excellent buying opportunity yet again.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 18th Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)

Exhibiting Strength : Nifty continues to march upwawrds and put up another 120+ points today to close at 11585 .

We have been saying that the Nifty is in uptrend and all dips should be utilised to go long. We have been advising against going short and had also mentioned if 11400-440 level is crossed then we are looking at higher levels of 11550-600 and 11700 after that. Nifty successfully closed above 11440 yesterday and today it broke above 11550.Now in near future it might continue to move up or give a short correction or sharp fall of or 100-200 points and then resume its journey but one thing is for sure that overall journey for markets remains on the upside.

Couple of days back we had posted a chart with the possible wavecounts and till now there is no change in it (Nifty continue to trade in wave 3). Markets seems to be moving on expected lines for now and we dont see any reason for changing our view and assumptions. Having said this, tomorrow if chart changes then our view will change as well but till now we see nothing on the charts which demands a re-think of our existing view.

So no major change as of now, if you are regular reader of this blog , you are aware of our views and what we have been saying. Trend remains on the upisde and it make sense to trade on the long side for now and if any correction comes then same should be utilised to enter long positions ( ofcourse with strict stop losses). 11550-11650 is a crucial level and some amount of consolidation/pull back from these levels cannot be ruled out. 

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 16th Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)

Upmove Gaining Momentum : Nifty opened flattish around 10350 but kept on inching up. it touched a high of 11460 and at one stange was trading 120+. It finally closed at 11430 levels up 90 points.

Yesterday there was a sharp downmove from 11400 levels which raised the doubts if market has started another corretction and it encouraged traders to open short positions in the last hour. However we have been continuously mentioning that the overall trajectory of the market remains on the upside and all dips should be utilised for enterting long positions. We also advised syrongly against making short positions in the market.

The falls we are witnessing are sharp but shallow and are not giving the followup selling thats the reason we continue to adopt buy on dips strategy for now. Today Nifty has closed around its crucial resitance of 11440 (slightly below it) and follow up buying above 11440 should take Nifty towards 11550-11600 levels On the other hand on the downside 11300 and 11190 should offer plenty of support and unless Nifty breaks these levels there is no reasons for Bulls to worry,

Below are some of the Trades we executed and messages we shared with our subscribers.

13/09/2019, 15:15 -  *Nifty 11075 buy 2 parts*
16/09/2019, 09:29 -  Good morning, nifty trading weak on account of jump in crude oil prices.
16/09/2019, 09:30 -  Nifty 11015. Keep holding all 4 parts long for now.
16/09/2019, 13:34 -  Nifty 10995. Keep holding all long positions
17/09/2019, 09:35 -  Good morning, nifty trading flattish. Keep holding longs for now.
17/09/2019, 11:06 -  Nifty 10932. Nothing to be done for now, keep carrying all longs
17/09/2019, 13:18 -  Nifty 10885,exhibiting weakness for now. Nothing to be done still
20/09/2019, 15:03 -  Nifty 11280. Carry all longs for nifty
20/09/2019, 15:03 -  Less risky traders can do some part profit booking.
23/09/2019, 09:15 -  *nifty 11580 book profit 2 parts*
23/09/2019, 09:41 -  Nifty 11500. Keep holding 2 parts long.
25/09/2019, 09:39 -  Keep holding 2 parts long for now
25/09/2019, 09:49 -  *nifty 11300 oct put sell @cmp 112*
25/09/2019, 09:50 -  Hold 2 parts long and nifty 11300 put (sell side)
25/09/2019, 10:03 -  Buying option may not fetch good profits because of time decay so resist that temptation and sell options instead.
25/09/2019, 15:11 -  Nifty 11460 carry all long positions for tomorrow
26/09/2019, 09:17 -  Good morning, nifty trading at 11490
26/09/2019, 09:17 -  Keep holding 2 parts long and 2 parts nifty 11300 pe (short)
26/09/2019, 10:49 -  *nifty 11300 pe book Profit at Cmp 99*
26/09/2019, 14:47 -  Nifty 11585. Nothing to be done for now. Carry long positions (2 parts) for tomorrow /Oct series.
26/09/2019, 15:34 -  <Media omitted>
27/09/2019, 10:59 -  Nifty 11525. One more drop Towards 11450-11400 area is possible. Keep holding 2 parts long
27/09/2019, 15:10 -  Nifty 11520. Consolidation continues.. Nothing to be  done for now.. Carry both parts long for tomorrow. Will add fresh longs later.
27/09/2019, 15:11 -  *carry longs for next week.
30/09/2019, 09:33 -  Good morning, as expected nifty has slipped to 11450 levels again. Keep holding 2 parts long for now. Wait for msg to add more long.
30/09/2019, 10:26 -  Nifty 11425. Keep holding 2 parts. Nothing to be done for now.
30/09/2019, 15:23 -  Nifty 11482. Carry both parts long for tomorrow. Will add more longs above --- levels
01/10/2019, 09:24 -  Some more Consolidation/minor dip possible from Current levels
01/10/2019, 10:10 -  Nifty 11420. Sharp drop but on expected lines. Nothing to be done now
01/10/2019, 13:54 -  *sell nifty 11200 pe @cmp 124*
01/10/2019, 13:54 -  Hold all long positions.
01/10/2019, 14:31 -  Nifty 11300.keep holding all longs... Dont panic
01/10/2019, 15:03 -  Nifty 11380. Carry all Longs for tomorrow.
03/10/2019, 09:19 -  Good Morning, nifty trading down @11270 nothing to be done for now.
03/10/2019, 15:26 -  Nifty 11316. Carry all Longs for Tomorrow
04/10/2019, 09:17 -  Good morning, nifty up 65 points at 11380.
04/10/2019, 09:18 -  Keep holding all longs, and wait for msg to add more longs
04/10/2019, 15:29 -  11170. Carry all Longs for next week
07/10/2019, 09:37 -  Good morning, nifty trading flat. Keep holding longs
07/10/2019, 10:14 -  Nifty 11231. Hold all longs for now.
07/10/2019, 15:16 -  Nifty 11125. Carry all longs for next trading session.
09/10/2019, 14:16 -  *sell nifty 11200 PE @ 150*09/10/2019, 15:02 -  Nifty 11320. Carry all long positions for tomorrow (less risky traders can book some partial profits)
10/10/2019, 10:07 -  Good morning, Nifty 11275 continue holding all longs.
10/10/2019, 15:27 -  Nifty 11245. Continue with all long positions
11/10/2019, 12:56 -  Nifty 11255. Turning volatile. Nothing to be done for now.
14/10/2019, 15:22 -  Nifty 11337. Carry longs for tomorrow.
15/10/2019, 09:34 -  Good morning, nifty trading up at 11365 levels. Continue holding all long positions
15/10/2019, 12:08 -  *nifty 11200 put sold @ avg @138 book profit now at cmp 79* entire qty

15/10/2019, 13:56 -  *nifty book profit in 2 parts @ cmp 11430*  (bought at 11075 previously)

As you can see we continue to update our subscribers throuh whatsapp messages( with exact entry/exit levels) To join us for live whatsapp updates pls follow below link:
 https://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/02/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html

Happy Trading

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 14th Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)

Volatility to the core : Nifty opened positive above 11300 and went on to touch 11360 before a sharp fall came and nifty dropped below 11200 levels however Markets recovered again and Nifty reclaimed 11300 levels to close at 11305 and gained 70 odd points.

Nifty has been moving in a very volatile move however the trend remains on the upside. Downmove or choppiness we are witnessing are not able to sustain and Nifty is slowly inching upwards. For now 11350 level is acting like a strong resistance but the way markets are trading there are chances this level could eventually be taken out. On the downside todays low at 11190 assumes a lot of significance. In case nifty start trading weak and drops below 11190 then the current correction can extend further by 150-250 points. On the upside, if 11350 is crossed then 11430-450 is the next resistance for Nifty and above that 11700 could be and should be tested once again.

We have been recommending buying on dips (and the strategy seems to be working for now) and strongly advising against going short as we believe we are in a very crucial uptrend. We might spend some more time around these levels and some more volatility can be seen but we believe its just a matter of time before Nifty start moving towards higher ( much higher) levels. We saw a sharp rally of 1000+ points from the lows of 10650 levels ( regular readers of this blog must be aware that we were continuously recommending going long at those levels) and we believe that theres a probability Nifty giving another big move on the similar lines pretty soon.

Nifty daily chart

Since many are requesting to post an update on our medium term outlook let me just post an overall summary ( will also post an detailed update if time permits). We believe that markets completed a very important upmove or a bullish cycle at 11171 in Jan 2018. All the moves we saw afterwards ( 11171- 10K-11650-10k-11K-10600) were part of a 13 month long correction which might have finished as a 5 legged neutral triangle and after that market has opened another up leg/bullish cycle which finished its leg 1 at 12100 and leg 2 at recent low of 10650 ( leg 2 retraced almost 90% of the leg 1). Now theres a possibility that we are in leg 3 which could take Nifty to much higher levels.

Here we must mention that when E leg was in prgoress we were expecting it to fall below 9950 and create panic like situation in the markets however that didnt happen and E leg ended at a failure point ( which was higher than C leg). E leg ending at a failure point increases the possibility of markets starting a strong uptrend. However that doesnt mean that market will be moving in a straight line, we will continue to see choppy moves and sharp fall of 200-300 points very often ( just to scare the weak hands). So while its important to have a stop loss its equally important to have a strong conviction.

Happy Trading!