Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 18th Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)

Exhibiting Strength : Nifty continues to march upwawrds and put up another 120+ points today to close at 11585 .

We have been saying that the Nifty is in uptrend and all dips should be utilised to go long. We have been advising against going short and had also mentioned if 11400-440 level is crossed then we are looking at higher levels of 11550-600 and 11700 after that. Nifty successfully closed above 11440 yesterday and today it broke above 11550.Now in near future it might continue to move up or give a short correction or sharp fall of or 100-200 points and then resume its journey but one thing is for sure that overall journey for markets remains on the upside.

Couple of days back we had posted a chart with the possible wavecounts and till now there is no change in it (Nifty continue to trade in wave 3). Markets seems to be moving on expected lines for now and we dont see any reason for changing our view and assumptions. Having said this, tomorrow if chart changes then our view will change as well but till now we see nothing on the charts which demands a re-think of our existing view.

So no major change as of now, if you are regular reader of this blog , you are aware of our views and what we have been saying. Trend remains on the upisde and it make sense to trade on the long side for now and if any correction comes then same should be utilised to enter long positions ( ofcourse with strict stop losses). 11550-11650 is a crucial level and some amount of consolidation/pull back from these levels cannot be ruled out. 

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 16th Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)

Upmove Gaining Momentum : Nifty opened flattish around 10350 but kept on inching up. it touched a high of 11460 and at one stange was trading 120+. It finally closed at 11430 levels up 90 points.

Yesterday there was a sharp downmove from 11400 levels which raised the doubts if market has started another corretction and it encouraged traders to open short positions in the last hour. However we have been continuously mentioning that the overall trajectory of the market remains on the upside and all dips should be utilised for enterting long positions. We also advised syrongly against making short positions in the market.

The falls we are witnessing are sharp but shallow and are not giving the followup selling thats the reason we continue to adopt buy on dips strategy for now. Today Nifty has closed around its crucial resitance of 11440 (slightly below it) and follow up buying above 11440 should take Nifty towards 11550-11600 levels On the other hand on the downside 11300 and 11190 should offer plenty of support and unless Nifty breaks these levels there is no reasons for Bulls to worry,

Below are some of the Trades we executed and messages we shared with our subscribers.

13/09/2019, 15:15 -  *Nifty 11075 buy 2 parts*
16/09/2019, 09:29 -  Good morning, nifty trading weak on account of jump in crude oil prices.
16/09/2019, 09:30 -  Nifty 11015. Keep holding all 4 parts long for now.
16/09/2019, 13:34 -  Nifty 10995. Keep holding all long positions
17/09/2019, 09:35 -  Good morning, nifty trading flattish. Keep holding longs for now.
17/09/2019, 11:06 -  Nifty 10932. Nothing to be done for now, keep carrying all longs
17/09/2019, 13:18 -  Nifty 10885,exhibiting weakness for now. Nothing to be done still
20/09/2019, 15:03 -  Nifty 11280. Carry all longs for nifty
20/09/2019, 15:03 -  Less risky traders can do some part profit booking.
23/09/2019, 09:15 -  *nifty 11580 book profit 2 parts*
23/09/2019, 09:41 -  Nifty 11500. Keep holding 2 parts long.
25/09/2019, 09:39 -  Keep holding 2 parts long for now
25/09/2019, 09:49 -  *nifty 11300 oct put sell @cmp 112*
25/09/2019, 09:50 -  Hold 2 parts long and nifty 11300 put (sell side)
25/09/2019, 10:03 -  Buying option may not fetch good profits because of time decay so resist that temptation and sell options instead.
25/09/2019, 15:11 -  Nifty 11460 carry all long positions for tomorrow
26/09/2019, 09:17 -  Good morning, nifty trading at 11490
26/09/2019, 09:17 -  Keep holding 2 parts long and 2 parts nifty 11300 pe (short)
26/09/2019, 10:49 -  *nifty 11300 pe book Profit at Cmp 99*
26/09/2019, 14:47 -  Nifty 11585. Nothing to be done for now. Carry long positions (2 parts) for tomorrow /Oct series.
26/09/2019, 15:34 -  <Media omitted>
27/09/2019, 10:59 -  Nifty 11525. One more drop Towards 11450-11400 area is possible. Keep holding 2 parts long
27/09/2019, 15:10 -  Nifty 11520. Consolidation continues.. Nothing to be  done for now.. Carry both parts long for tomorrow. Will add fresh longs later.
27/09/2019, 15:11 -  *carry longs for next week.
30/09/2019, 09:33 -  Good morning, as expected nifty has slipped to 11450 levels again. Keep holding 2 parts long for now. Wait for msg to add more long.
30/09/2019, 10:26 -  Nifty 11425. Keep holding 2 parts. Nothing to be done for now.
30/09/2019, 15:23 -  Nifty 11482. Carry both parts long for tomorrow. Will add more longs above --- levels
01/10/2019, 09:24 -  Some more Consolidation/minor dip possible from Current levels
01/10/2019, 10:10 -  Nifty 11420. Sharp drop but on expected lines. Nothing to be done now
01/10/2019, 13:54 -  *sell nifty 11200 pe @cmp 124*
01/10/2019, 13:54 -  Hold all long positions.
01/10/2019, 14:31 -  Nifty 11300.keep holding all longs... Dont panic
01/10/2019, 15:03 -  Nifty 11380. Carry all Longs for tomorrow.
03/10/2019, 09:19 -  Good Morning, nifty trading down @11270 nothing to be done for now.
03/10/2019, 15:26 -  Nifty 11316. Carry all Longs for Tomorrow
04/10/2019, 09:17 -  Good morning, nifty up 65 points at 11380.
04/10/2019, 09:18 -  Keep holding all longs, and wait for msg to add more longs
04/10/2019, 15:29 -  11170. Carry all Longs for next week
07/10/2019, 09:37 -  Good morning, nifty trading flat. Keep holding longs
07/10/2019, 10:14 -  Nifty 11231. Hold all longs for now.
07/10/2019, 15:16 -  Nifty 11125. Carry all longs for next trading session.
09/10/2019, 14:16 -  *sell nifty 11200 PE @ 150*09/10/2019, 15:02 -  Nifty 11320. Carry all long positions for tomorrow (less risky traders can book some partial profits)
10/10/2019, 10:07 -  Good morning, Nifty 11275 continue holding all longs.
10/10/2019, 15:27 -  Nifty 11245. Continue with all long positions
11/10/2019, 12:56 -  Nifty 11255. Turning volatile. Nothing to be done for now.
14/10/2019, 15:22 -  Nifty 11337. Carry longs for tomorrow.
15/10/2019, 09:34 -  Good morning, nifty trading up at 11365 levels. Continue holding all long positions
15/10/2019, 12:08 -  *nifty 11200 put sold @ avg @138 book profit now at cmp 79* entire qty

15/10/2019, 13:56 -  *nifty book profit in 2 parts @ cmp 11430*  (bought at 11075 previously)

As you can see we continue to update our subscribers throuh whatsapp messages( with exact entry/exit levels) To join us for live whatsapp updates pls follow below link:
 https://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/02/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html

Happy Trading

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 14th Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)

Volatility to the core : Nifty opened positive above 11300 and went on to touch 11360 before a sharp fall came and nifty dropped below 11200 levels however Markets recovered again and Nifty reclaimed 11300 levels to close at 11305 and gained 70 odd points.

Nifty has been moving in a very volatile move however the trend remains on the upside. Downmove or choppiness we are witnessing are not able to sustain and Nifty is slowly inching upwards. For now 11350 level is acting like a strong resistance but the way markets are trading there are chances this level could eventually be taken out. On the downside todays low at 11190 assumes a lot of significance. In case nifty start trading weak and drops below 11190 then the current correction can extend further by 150-250 points. On the upside, if 11350 is crossed then 11430-450 is the next resistance for Nifty and above that 11700 could be and should be tested once again.

We have been recommending buying on dips (and the strategy seems to be working for now) and strongly advising against going short as we believe we are in a very crucial uptrend. We might spend some more time around these levels and some more volatility can be seen but we believe its just a matter of time before Nifty start moving towards higher ( much higher) levels. We saw a sharp rally of 1000+ points from the lows of 10650 levels ( regular readers of this blog must be aware that we were continuously recommending going long at those levels) and we believe that theres a probability Nifty giving another big move on the similar lines pretty soon.

Nifty daily chart

Since many are requesting to post an update on our medium term outlook let me just post an overall summary ( will also post an detailed update if time permits). We believe that markets completed a very important upmove or a bullish cycle at 11171 in Jan 2018. All the moves we saw afterwards ( 11171- 10K-11650-10k-11K-10600) were part of a 13 month long correction which might have finished as a 5 legged neutral triangle and after that market has opened another up leg/bullish cycle which finished its leg 1 at 12100 and leg 2 at recent low of 10650 ( leg 2 retraced almost 90% of the leg 1). Now theres a possibility that we are in leg 3 which could take Nifty to much higher levels.

Here we must mention that when E leg was in prgoress we were expecting it to fall below 9950 and create panic like situation in the markets however that didnt happen and E leg ended at a failure point ( which was higher than C leg). E leg ending at a failure point increases the possibility of markets starting a strong uptrend. However that doesnt mean that market will be moving in a straight line, we will continue to see choppy moves and sharp fall of 200-300 points very often ( just to scare the weak hands). So while its important to have a stop loss its equally important to have a strong conviction.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 10th Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)

Strong Rally : Nifty opened flat around 11120 levels and even dropped below 11090 levels during intraday however it soon bounced back and didnt look back after that. It rose more than 230 points from day low and closed at 11310 levels. Up 185 points.

Like we have been saying since last so many days that market remains in uptrend and all dips should be utilised to go long. We had also mentioned that as long as levels of 11050 is intact the uptrend remains intact as well. Today market almost touched our medium term pivotal point and bounce from that region to give a rally of 200 points.We also mentioned that we see the current fall (from 11700 levels) as a retracement of recent sharp rally ( from 10650 to 11700) and once the retracement is complete market will start another leg on the upside.

Now that we have seen a sharp move from 11100 levels, can we assume that pullback is complete and market is ready to open another leg on the upside and touch higher levels? well the answer to this question is probably yes. We need to see if markets can cross 11400-440 levels in next 2-3 trading sessions and if that happens then we can say with reasonably surety that a fresh leg on the upside is opened On the other hand if we see some hesistation around 11400 levels then we can see one more dip towards 11150-11200 levels ( however chances of that happening appears low as of now).

In Nutshell, market remains in uptrend and the retracement/consolidation can last for few more days but as long as 11050 is intact there is a strong likelihood of market moving sharply from these levels hence we do not recommend going short for now ( going long on dips should be the only trading plan in the present scenario).

Happy Trading!!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 09th Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)

Downmove Continues : Nifty opened flat and traded above 11200 for most part of the day but failed to cross above its key resistance area of 11250 and shed 100+ points from its day high. It hit a low of around 11115 and closed at 11126, down 50 odd points.

Nifty has been trading weak since last 8-9 trading session  (ever since it hit a high of 11700) and now has shed around 600 points from the highs it hit couple of weeks back. This continuos weakness in markets is raising doubts and questions if the recent high was just a pullback rally driven by corp rate cut news and now the markets have resumed its downtrend already. In our opinion, it would be too early to conclude that. Inspite of market showing weakness for last few sessions market remains in a uptrend ( for now) and till the time sustained trading is seen below 11050 levels , it would not be wise to bet on the short/bearish side.

Charts and technicals continue to point towards a possible uptrend (which has already started) and for now we are reading the fall from 11700 levels as a corrective fall of the 1000+ rise we saw from the lows of 10650.

In Nutshell, evern though markets continue to be weak and continue to move South, there are many indicators suggesting a probability of markets starting yet another bullish move from these levels hence it doesnt make sense to go short at current levels. If Nifty break below 11050-11K levels then we will have to see and probably re-analyse all data but for now nothing changes.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 03rd Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)

Sharp Fall : Nifty yesterday saw a sharp fall of more than 200+ points towards 11250 area but recovered nearly 50% of the losses to close at 11350 levels, down 100 points.

We have continuously been saying that since nifty has run up 1000 points from its recent low, some amount of correction/sidwaymovement/consolidation or a dip is possible from current levels. However that doesnt mean that Nifty has resumed its downtrend.  We continue to believe that Nifty is headed higher from current levels but ofcourse that doesnt mean that we cannot see some sharp fall ( like we witnessed yesterday).

Going forward too we can see the 11300-11250 again getting tested and aslong as 11050-11100 stands there is no threat to the current upmove which started from 10700 levels.All sharp selloffs or a panic selling should be utilised to go long.

There are many analyst who are seeing the move from 10700-11600 as a retracement rally (of a previous downmove) and are expecting nifty to fall to 10600-10700 level again. However our view is different ( and has been different for a while now) we continue to believe that after the current consolidation is over,Nifty will start a second leg of the upmove ( which could be as strong as the first one was)

Happy Trading!