Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 25th Jun 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑UP (down below 11550)

11700 Holds: Nifty opened slightly positive around 11750 but quickly dropped to 11700 levels. It traded around 11700 for entire day and in last hour dropped to 11670 levels but once again quickly made a small jump and reclaimed l11700 levels. It closed at 11700 down 20 points.

Overall trading range was pretty tight today however Nifty failed to break above 11750 levels and on the downside buying again emerged as soon as Nifty dropped below 11700 levels. For now support is seen between 11600-700 levels and whenever Nifty drops in this range, good amount of buying emerges which supports Nifty & it again starts moving up. However it remains to be seen for how long 11600 level continue to support Nifty.
This week is an important week ( being an expiry week) and most probably will set the tone for next 1-2 months. Though overall Nifty is still in a larger up trend but there are no clear signs yet that the correction which started  from 12100 levels is complete so one should continue to be watchful for now. 12040-12100 is no ordinary high, its the high touched by market during election day result when the optimism was at its extreme and the results were announced on 23rd may, today its 24th June & exactly a month since results were announced and even after one months markets are still trading below that high.
Market has been giving sharp and wild chopping moves since last few days and we had mentioned this is generally witnessed when markets are preparing for a big move hence traders on both sides needs to be cautious as market can move strongly in any direction and for now keeping everyone guessing however its entirely possible that we continue to see some more wild/choppy moves in next few days.

In summary, trend remains up as long as 11550-600 levels hold but Nifty to needs to quickly move above 11900-950 levels to signal that the correction we are witnessing since last few weeks is over.

Happy Trading!!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 24th Jun 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑UP (down below 11550)

Failing to Sustain Highs: Nifty once again failed to sustain above 11800 and dropped to 11700 levels. it finally closed at 11722, down 110 points.

Follow up buying has been a major problem for markets in recent times. Yesterday many traders would have gone long above 11800 thinking breakout has come which will take Nifty to 12K+ levels and an overnight 200 point rally in Dow would have fuelled the bullish sentiments further. However Nifty opened in red and within 5 mins of opening, it was trading at 11800 levels. It kept trying whole day to regain 11800 but failed miserably.

False breakouts & wild swings have been occurring far too often. One day Nifty goes up 100 and next day it drops 150. Such a trading environment is a nightmare for a swing trader as there is absolutely no trend whatsoever and it appears as if Nifty is running like a headless chicken. However there is a method in madness. These wild swings are happening for a specific reason and the reason is that Nifty is preparing itself for a big move but before it starts moving it wants to throw out weak traders. Its important that filth is cleared from the market before it starts moving strongly, so in a way these wild swings are healthy (experience traders would understand this completely). We have been warning caution and expecting these swings/chops since last many days and in such situations quick entry/exit is very important as you don't want to be caught on the wrong side.If one is not equipped to make quick decisions and cannot change side from bulls camp to bears camp (or vice versa) in a jiffy, then he should not trade for next few days.

 We had mentioned this in detail in yesterdays post:http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/06/nifty-outlook-and-trend-for-coming.html 
If you haven't seen it yet, then suggest you to go through it.
Right now its difficult to say which way markets are gonna go, but a bullish move is only expected once 11900-950 level is taken out and bearish move is expected below 11550 levels ( a strong move is expected once these levels are taken out).

Happy Trading! 

Nifty Outlook and Trend for coming month(s)

Medium Term Trend:  ↑UP (down below 11550)

Today we are not going to discuss what markets did today or what its going to do tomorrow but we are going to have a look at slighter bigger perspective and discuss what it is going to do in next 15-60 days. Todays update is critical so read it carefully.

In our previous post we had mentioned that markets are at a very critical pivotal point and the sideways trading we are witnessing is probably wont continue for long and Nifty could start moving in a strong trend pretty soon. After seeing last 2 days move by markets this view has become even more stronger and we are reasonably sure ( mind you nothing is 100% sure) that the big trending move we have been talking about ( in either direction) is about to start pretty soon.

Lets see the 2 possible scenarios and their outcome-

1. Bullish scenario:  This scenario assumes that a new impulse started from 10600 levels and finished at 11850 and the move from 11850 to 11100 and then to 12103 and now to 11625 is part of a-b-c complex corrective. C has either completed at 11625 already or it can drop a little more (and become equal to a wave). Now once C is completed Nifty will start impulse of wave 2 which will take Nifty to 12700-13K levels minimum.



Nifty Intraday Chart

2. Bearish scenario:  Now here we assume ( and its looking like a very strong pattern) that entire move from 10600 levels is developing like a ending diagonal/contracting triangle which probably finished D leg yesterday at 11625 & started E leg today. Once E leg is finished ( should remain smaller than C leg) market will open a strong impulsive wave on the downside & Nifty will touch 10700-10500 minimum in that case.

Nifty Intraday Chart

Now you might say that we are talking about both the possibilities and its of no use but pls keep in mind that we are talking about 800-1000 point movement on either side and whenever market is poised for such a big move it likes to keep people guessing and keep them confused. But if you carefully observe the market movement for next few trading sessions you should be able to guess which way market is moving or about to move. Key here is to not get caught on the wrong side cause if market catches you on the wrong side and trend begins on the opposite side, your entire capital can be wiped out. Another important thing is that one should not try to catch bottom or tops in such market but wait a little before committing, since the expected move is big, one can still make a killing even if he enters a little late.

So in a nutshell, we are at a very critical juncture and soon Nifty will decide whether its moving towards 10500 levels or 13K so one needs to be extremely careful and go full throttle when the confirmation comes. As always if you wish to join us for our whatsapp real time updates/trading recommendations during trading hours then you may join us using below link:
 http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/02/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html

Happy Trading!





 

Nifty Outlook and Trend for 20th Jun 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑UP (down below 11550)

Wild Chops: Nifty opened strong on the back of +ve global cues around 11750 and quickly climbed to 11800 levels however it failed to sustained it & started moving down. It touched a day low of 11625 before buying support emerged at lower levels and pushed Nifty back to 11700. it closed flat at 11691 level.

Looking at the closing price, Nifty closed flat but during the day its trading range was almost 200 points which is huge. Nifty made a big 'Doji' on daily charts today which signifies indecisiveness in the markets. Both bulls and bears are not committing and preferring a trade-in & trade-out kind of scenario for now.

 Nifty failed to take out 11800 (previous support now acting as a resistance?)  however 11600 continue to provide support for now. Previous trading range of 11800-12K levels has now been shifted to 11600-11800 it seems. Such wild swings are probably an indication that markets are preparing to move big in either direction. We don't expect range bound trading for too long. Below are some of the +ves and -ves we can see

Positives: a) Nifty OI continue to be light b) Global markets are being supportive - Dow is nearing its all time high c) Nifty is managing to hold the election day result low ( 11600) & d) PCR >1

Negatives: a) Failure to take out 11800 levels b) Daily momentum indicators have started giving negative crossovers  c) correction which started from 12100 is not giving any sign of completion till now & d) Nifty continues to make lower lows on daily chart & e) 'Bearish belt hold pattern' on weekly chart.

So for now one should continue to be cautious as wild choppy moves might continue for now. Keep watching 11550-11800 level range as a break of this range is likely to propel Nifty further in that direction.


Happy Trading!!