Nifty Outlook and Trend for 6th Jun 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑UP (down below 11550)

lackluster day: Nifty opened flat and consolidated whole day between 12080-12K. It closed down 65 points at 12020 levels.

Yesterday Nifty had surpassed and closed above a key level of 12040 (election day result high) however after a strong day of gains yesterday, markets failed to put up any gains above and slipped below 12040 levels yet again. as long as 12K-12040 holds there is always a possibility of Nifty moving up from here however if it starts trading below 12k levels consistently then it can slip to 11850-11900 levels again.

Thursday is an important day for markets, there is RBI policy and prospect of rate cut ( which market seems to be factoring in). Its also a day of weekly expiry plus our market is closed tomorrow so it will have to react to global cues of 2 days when it opens for trading on Thursday. So a gap-up or a gap-down is very much possible in such scenario.

One thing to note is the divergence between Dow and Nifty. Lately both indices were pretty much in sync and moving in tandem however since last few days again there seems to be a big divergence. Nifty has made a new lifetime high whereas Dow is almost 5-6%  down from its previous high and threatening to move down. Ideally both should align and catchup as we move forward so it will be interesting to note if Dow moves up or Nifty start moving down. For now the way Nifty is moving up is suggesting that global markets will start improving ( atleast that's what Nifty seems to be factoring in for now).

In Nutshell, Nifty's inability to cross yesterdays high and close above 12040 is a bit of downer but the fall today was pretty slow and probably just a pause before the next move. Need to observe how market trades on Thursday/Friday ( especially after rate cut news). As long Nifty is trading above 12k there should not be any major worry for Bulls in short term.

Happy Trading!
                                                   

Nifty Outlook and Trend for 4th Jun 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑UP (down below 11550)

Strong day: Nifty opened slightly positive inspite of weak global cues & kept marching up through out the day. It closed at 12090 levels , up 165 points.

The way market were falling on Friday did open up a possibility of minor or major correction however the way Nifty has moved today & even crossed even 12040 levels suggests that correction has to wait for some time more probably.

Global markets ( US in particular) were falling since last few days and probably the negative sentiments in general public (surrounding global markets) have acted as a tonic for our markets and helped Nifty put up a healthy gain today Now that we have successfully crossed and closed above 12040 it opens up gates of even higher level (12300-12500 or even higher) for Nifty. Going forward 12K-12040 level now should act as a good support.

The way markets have discounted fall in global markets probably suggest some sharp recovery in global markets in coming few days also the upcoming RBI policy ( and a possibility of rate cut) is also fuelling this rally. Market trend remains up on most time frame and theres just small negative divergences on hourly charts, apart from that there is nothing negative in markets for now.

We had mentioned in one of the previous post that Market have a habit of hitting high on euphoric day and the high hit on election day (12040) was one such possibility hence we were advising caution. However now that same has been successfully crossed and markets have managed to closed above it, that option is largely negated. If Nifty can give couple of closing above 12040-75 levels then it will be further substantiated.

In summary, If Nifty can sustain 12000-12050 levels going forward then there is a possibility of markets giving a good move up from here on the other hand if 12K level is breached again in nex 1-2 days then the possibility of  todays move being just a false move opens up again too.

Happy Trading!