Nifty Outlook and Trend for 6th Jun 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑UP (down below 11550)

lackluster day: Nifty opened flat and consolidated whole day between 12080-12K. It closed down 65 points at 12020 levels.

Yesterday Nifty had surpassed and closed above a key level of 12040 (election day result high) however after a strong day of gains yesterday, markets failed to put up any gains above and slipped below 12040 levels yet again. as long as 12K-12040 holds there is always a possibility of Nifty moving up from here however if it starts trading below 12k levels consistently then it can slip to 11850-11900 levels again.

Thursday is an important day for markets, there is RBI policy and prospect of rate cut ( which market seems to be factoring in). Its also a day of weekly expiry plus our market is closed tomorrow so it will have to react to global cues of 2 days when it opens for trading on Thursday. So a gap-up or a gap-down is very much possible in such scenario.

One thing to note is the divergence between Dow and Nifty. Lately both indices were pretty much in sync and moving in tandem however since last few days again there seems to be a big divergence. Nifty has made a new lifetime high whereas Dow is almost 5-6%  down from its previous high and threatening to move down. Ideally both should align and catchup as we move forward so it will be interesting to note if Dow moves up or Nifty start moving down. For now the way Nifty is moving up is suggesting that global markets will start improving ( atleast that's what Nifty seems to be factoring in for now).

In Nutshell, Nifty's inability to cross yesterdays high and close above 12040 is a bit of downer but the fall today was pretty slow and probably just a pause before the next move. Need to observe how market trades on Thursday/Friday ( especially after rate cut news). As long Nifty is trading above 12k there should not be any major worry for Bulls in short term.

Happy Trading!
                                                   

Nifty Outlook and Trend for 4th Jun 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑UP (down below 11550)

Strong day: Nifty opened slightly positive inspite of weak global cues & kept marching up through out the day. It closed at 12090 levels , up 165 points.

The way market were falling on Friday did open up a possibility of minor or major correction however the way Nifty has moved today & even crossed even 12040 levels suggests that correction has to wait for some time more probably.

Global markets ( US in particular) were falling since last few days and probably the negative sentiments in general public (surrounding global markets) have acted as a tonic for our markets and helped Nifty put up a healthy gain today Now that we have successfully crossed and closed above 12040 it opens up gates of even higher level (12300-12500 or even higher) for Nifty. Going forward 12K-12040 level now should act as a good support.

The way markets have discounted fall in global markets probably suggest some sharp recovery in global markets in coming few days also the upcoming RBI policy ( and a possibility of rate cut) is also fuelling this rally. Market trend remains up on most time frame and theres just small negative divergences on hourly charts, apart from that there is nothing negative in markets for now.

We had mentioned in one of the previous post that Market have a habit of hitting high on euphoric day and the high hit on election day (12040) was one such possibility hence we were advising caution. However now that same has been successfully crossed and markets have managed to closed above it, that option is largely negated. If Nifty can give couple of closing above 12040-75 levels then it will be further substantiated.

In summary, If Nifty can sustain 12000-12050 levels going forward then there is a possibility of markets giving a good move up from here on the other hand if 12K level is breached again in nex 1-2 days then the possibility of  todays move being just a false move opens up again too.

Happy Trading!

 

Nifty Outlook and Trend for 3rd Jun 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑UP (down below 11400)

Day of Choppiness: Nifty opened strong at 12K levels and went to touch its previous high of 12040 ( Sensex even registered a new high) and turned back very sharply. Move down was so sharp that Nifty was almost 200 point down from its day high in a matter of mins. Nifty finally managed to regain some lost ground and closed at 11920 levels, down 25 points.

First half was really action packed  with Nifty swinging wildly. It broke above 11975 levels ( even though it could not sustain) hence the possibility of extracting triangle pattern stands negated. However the 'dragonfly doji' market has posted on Tuesday still stands. Nifty needed a close above 11960 levels which it failed to do so.

Since last few days we have been saying that even though we are bullish on markets, we remain cautious at current levels. Its not a market where you can go and buy on breakouts ( todays move justified our stance). If some one had gone long this morning thinking market has broken through about 12K was in or a rude shock moments later. So trend is up no doubt, but there is a chance of markets going for a correction ( big or small). From here now it remains to be seen if the fall we saw today was just a intraday phenomenon or it continues going forward too.

We continue to be cautious at current levels for various reasons. firstly , the election euphoria is still there in market with everyone turning super bullish at current levels. Secondly, we are seeing some negative divergences on charts which is not supporting this upmove ( divergence is not strong but it does exists) and finally even on monthly charts Nifty has formed a 'Hanging man' kind of pattern which again can have some bearish implications as we move forward. Now it doesn't mean that we are bearish on markets ( not yet) however we are merely acknowledging that there is a possibility of sideways movement or some cooling off in the indices in near term.

On the daily charts it seems as if entire move from low of 11100 has completed five wave upmove ( 1-2-3-4-5) however its too early to say ( need more evidence to confirm that). Further weakness from here below 11800-820 levels will be a sign of correction setting up in the markets and fast move up above 12040 levels will set the ball rolling again in favor of bulls.

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers through regular intraday whatsapp updates as to what needs to be done, when & where to enter during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty calls/trading recommendation then you may subscribe using below link:

http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/02/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html

Happy Trading!

Nifty Outlook and Trend for 31st May 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑UP (down below 11400)

Consolidation continues: Nifty Opened flat (inspite of a strong overnight fall in US stocks) but kept marching up for the entire day. There was no volatility and markets closed at 11945 ( up 85 points).

 

Nifty continues to consolidate and still remains in a tight range. On the election day result the high hit by Nifty was 12040 and low 11614, now even after almost a week, the high and lows hit by markets on that day hasn't been breached. I think this tight range bound trading is due to expiry related pressures. Before election results , the option premiums were pretty high and smart money probably has eaten up premiums on both sides ( a possibility we had mentioned long back before results came out).

 

Now that the expiry is out of the way, we should be seeing some movement (in either direction). Today inspite of a strong rally, markets have failed to cross the critical level of 11975 hence the possibility of extracting triangle ( which can have some bearish implications for short term) still stand. Also markets have still not been able to close above the 'dragonfly doji'  it made on Wednesday. This again is warranting some amount of caution at current levels.

 

Nothing much to update for now, caution is advised at current levels unless 11975-12K level is crossed and sustained on the downside one more (small or big) correction is possible from current levels. On the downside 11840 -820 is a crucial level now, if that is taken out markets can slip to 11700-650 levels once again but no danger to the current uptrend till the time 11400 holds.

  

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers through regular intraday whatsapp updates as to what needs to be done, when & where to enter during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty calls/trading recommendation then you may subscribe using below link:

http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/02/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html

Happy Trading!