Nifty View: Update for 21st Jan 2019

Near Term Trend: ↔ (sideways with a positive bias)

Market update: Nifty opened flat inspite of the fact that all Asian markets were substantially up and even though SGX nifty was pointing to a higher open around 10950 levels. It turned weak during initial hours and threatened to go breakdown for a bit but eventually it recovered and closed flat.

Even though Nifty didn't give a crossover over 10925 the fact that it didn't break down below 10840 is a positive sign for the bulls ( same thing I mentioned yesterday too). In the morning the way market started moving down after opening  created an impression  as if nifty had started a new leg down however fall was soon arrested and Bulls pushed the nifty back to 10900 levels.

Usually when markets make a top the fall which follows is pretty sharp and markets don't hang around the top area for too long. This grinding which we are witnessing around 10900 is not symptomatic of top formation. Not suggesting that Nifty cant fall from here off course it can but the congestion we are witnessing around 10900 is suggesting a probability of a throw up or one more leg up.

Technically speaking, markets are making a diametric which probably is in its last let. Under normal conditions the G leg could extend for 7-10 days ( today was 4th day). I also mentioned yesterday that when some support/resistance becomes too obvious then it usually is taken out by a gap up or gap down opening so watch out for any gap up if happens during next week (it might trigger a short squeeze).

Globally, Dow had a very major resistance at 24K levels (S&P 2600) which was taken out yesterday. Nifty didn't fall when Dow was falling down so one may argue that Nifty wont go up when dow is going up which makes sense too. However this correlation ( or lack of) between Dow and Nifty cannot continue for long.

Another important thing to notice is the market breadth. It was totally tilted in the favour of sellers today (advance: decline-16:34).  Inner structure of market remains weak hence any trade must be properly planned and should only be taken with a proper SL. Over all structure of the market remains weak but near term is suggesting an upside.

Trading Recommendation: Dont suggest going short at this stage, and if some one is long he can continue with a SL of 10840. Rest depends on how market behaves during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe our live Nifty trading calls/ updates during market hours then pls use below link:

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Nifty View: Update for 18th Jan 2019

Near Term Trend: ↔ (sideways with a positive bias)

Market update: Nifty opened around 10925 levels however once again failed to break it and even dragged below 10850 before a bout of late buying pushed the index back to 10900 levels. it closed 15 points up at 10905.

I have lost the number of count 10925 level has been tested and markets failed to crossed it. Today there was a strong possibility that same would be crossed however once again markets failed to do so. Point to note is that all fall from 10900 levels are carrying the characteristics of a corrective fall and they are short lived and are getting retraced in faster time. So there is a possibility of speculative shorting which is happening around 10900 levels. If some one is bearish then it makes sense to short Nifty at 10900-10920 with a stop loss of 10950 its a simple and easy trade isn't it? however markets are never that simple so I continue to believe one more leg on the upside is pending.

On intraday chart nifty today made a 'hanging man' or ' hammer' pattern which signifies strength above 10930 and weakness below 10840 levels. when any support or resistance becomes too obvious then usually those are taken out by a gap up or gap down opening. So wont be surprised if we see that soon. On the downside if we see a follow up selling below 10850 then that would put serious question marks on the current leg of rally and the probability of Nifty going up from here.

Another important point to note is that yesterday Nifty broke above it recent high of 10850, today it broke above its previous swing high of 10924 (even though intraday and for a very very short time) now next high of nifty is placed at 10985 levels so there is every possibility of Nifty testing and crossing the same. I was hoping for 10980 levels to be tested atleast today however markets had different idea and it didn't materialize.

Technically speaking, no change in wave counts ( please see my previous post for the wave counts). I believe G leg  is still in progress and can see further upsides from here but things will change if 10840 is taken out now.

Trading recommendation: No change in position, same as yesterday. We are still carrying our longs and if someone is long he can continue with a SL of 10840.

Imp thing: After tomorrow, we will not be posting our trading details and trading recommendations ( entry exit points) here as we are turning paid and our trade recommendations will exclusively be reserved for our paid subscribers ( will continue to post my general market view though). In case you wish to join us pls follow below link ( subscription fee is kept as bare minimum as an introductory offer)

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Nifty View: Update for 17th Jan 2019

Near Term Trend: ↔ (sideways with a positive bias)

Market update: Nifty opened slightly positive above 10900 levels but could not sustain above it. Whole day it traded in a narrow range between 10880-10925 and closed almost flat.

As per our views ( and like we have been saying since last few days) there is every likelihood or possibility for one more leg up in Nifty. We have seen too much congestion at 10900 range and it needs to be shaken up before market can resume its main trend. After a solid run of 150+ points yesterday the consolidation around 10900 level is a welcome sign for bulls. Even though Nifty didn't break above 10925 it didn't break down either.

I am not suggesting that worst is behind us and everyone should start buying and building portfolio. No, not at all. Overall there is no change in main trend of Nifty and its just that for a near term perspective there is a possibility of Nifty moving up.That is the reason we exited shorts @10700 and gone long above 10800 levels. Lot of people asking me we were selling Nifty earlier when it  was around 10900 and now we are buying. Well that's market for you, we will always do what charts tell us to do (off course we can be wrong at times) but as a positional trader we have to buy when there is a possibility of a move up and sell when there is a possibility of a down move, levels be damned.

I am not sure of up side targets but levels above 11K are a possibility even 11200-11300 can be seen. It will be difficult for nifty to go any higher than that but it can definitely go, no one should doubt it. It has not been an easy market to trade since last 2 months and I don't think it will be any easier to trade it in near term. You need lot of conviction and discipline to trade the present structure which is shaping up in Nifty.Falling INR/USD and  fragile global markets continues to pose a threat to Bulls.

Nifty Intraday chart

Now coming back to technical, there is no change in my view. Nifty is still making a diametric pattern in a diamond shape however only change I am anticipating now is that its not going to be a 'G' failure and probably G leg is going to go post a new high. I was expecting G leg to finish around 10925 earlier but it seems F leg got subdivided so the pattern still continues ( extension and subdivision are very much possible in a diametric). Please note Nifty can  terminate G leg below 10985 levels itself or even go as far as 11300 levels ( In my opinion second scenario is most likely but you never know).

Trading recommendation: No change in trading position, same as yesterday. Still holding our longs. Don't recommend going short at current levels and one should wait a little bit if he wants to short Nifty however if one is already short then he should exit at CMP or keep a tight SL of 10990 levels.If you have a small risk appetite and trading basis just your gut feel then you should sit out for some time and wait for picture to become clear first. When we initiate a trade we ensure trade is properly managed and we keep updating all our subscribers at every stage during trading hours as to what needs to be done. 

Imp thing: After Friday (18th jan), we will not be posting our trading details and trading recommendations ( entry exit points) here as we are turning paid and our trade recommendations will exclusively be reserved for our paid subscribers ( will continue to post my general market view though). In case you wish to join us pls follow below link ( subscription fee is kept as bare minimum as an introductory offer)

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Nifty View: Update for 16th Jan 2019

Near Term Trend: ↔ (sideways with a positive bias)

Market update: Nifty opened on a strong note at 10800 and kept marching higher and finally closed at 10890 levels up 150+ points. Nifty saw good momentum on the upside after so many days and closed and added lot of points above the opening prices.

Till recently bulls were failing to add any points above the opening price levels however todays trading was different we saw good amount of buying and that too with good momentum. When we covered our shorts yesterday @10700 levels many were telling me that its not a right decision that too when market has given a breakout from the trading range (contraction). However I had been continuously mentioning in my posts that the first breakout would most likely be a false breakout just to lure in the unsuspecting traders.

 I also mentioned that yesterdays break out could be a 'bear trap'. That's the reason we exited and booked some 80-90 point profits in our short positions.Nifty gave a sharp upmove today and has proved that yesterdays breakout  below 10750 levels was just a 'bear trap'. We even added longs today @ 10822 then 10854 and just before closing @10885 levels. I also kept mentioning that one leg on the upside is pending and today (probably) Nifty has started that up leg already.

So what next? is the near term trend has changed to positive now? I would say probably yes but we need to see some more evidence before we conclude that. First hurdle is 10920 levels and after that a solid resistance at 10980 levels. We are not setting any profit target for now and will see when to exit basis how market behaves during upcoming trading sessions and will exit/book profits accordingly.

Overall please keep in mind that market still remains in a corrective mode and any upside can terminate anytime without giving any warning so pls be careful. All trades have to be properly managed keeping in mind many factors, so don't be reckless. Its not a market where you can blindly go long or short.

Trading Recommendations: We exited our shorts yesterday and booked profits @10700 levels and have gone long today. For now I don't recommend shorts ( one might get better shorting opportunities later on). If you are wondering why I have changed my stand from bearish to bullish positions then its because charts are telling me so. I will always do what charts are telling me and my motive is to be on the right side of market.

Imp thing:After Friday (18th jan), we will not be posting our trading details and trading recommendations ( entry exit points) here as we are turning paid and our trade recommendations will exclusively be reserved for our paid subscribers ( will continue to post my general market view though). In case you wish to join us pls follow below link ( subscription fee is kept as bare minimum as an introductory offer)

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Thanks & Happy Trading to you!


 

Nifty Trade Update -15th Jan 2019

Nifty Trade Update -15th Jan 2019

Update 10:05 AM:  Nifty CMP  10822 - Buy Nifty one part
Update 11:45 AM:  Nifty CMP  10854 - Buy Nifty one more part
Update 03:10 PM:  Nifty CMP  10885 - Buy Nifty 2 parts
 
Open Positions: 4 parts long
Nifty 2 parts @ avg 10838
Nifty 2 parts @ 10885


Update 18th Jan: These trades were closed @ 10880 ( all 4 parts)

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Nifty View: Update for 15th Jan 2019

Near Term Trend: ↔ (sideways)

Market update: Nifty opened with a slight gap down at 10750 levels and dropped sub 10700 levels intraday trading before closing at 10737 levels down 60 points.

10750 has been a formidable support for nifty and today Nifty broke it and even the contraction channel was broken on the downside still we have changed the near term trend to 'sideways' from 'down'. Lack of impulse or momentum in the current fall is raising question if its indeed the start of a fresh downmove or just a corrective move (which is extending time wise and price wise)

From trading perspective we decided to cover our remaining shorts around 10700 levels in the morning. There were many traders who went short today once the 10750 level was broken ( and market gave a breakout below the contraction range) thinking downmove has started. However for a downmove to begin there has to be an impulse which is clearly missing since last few days. Thats the reason we decided to exit. But it still doesn't mean that Nifty is turning bullish and should immediately go long. Market can still fall from here in next few days but the chances of same have reduced a bit for the time being.

So for now we need to watch Nifty movement closely for next few days and then see in which direction to trade. If we feel strength is returning to markets then we wont hesitate from taking a long position. As per our view, nifty should have seen the start of a downmove trend by now but since its still stuck in a range and that could mean one more leg on the upside is pending.

Technically speaking, we are still in a complex corrective and all we are saying is that probably Nifty will spend some more time in the correction zone before the actual downmove actually begins. So lets see how Nifty behaves in next 2-3 trading sessions we will accordingly see what needs to be done.

Trading Recommendation: We exited our balance short position @10700 levels and currently have no open positions. Like mentioned above we need to observe markets for few trading session to decide what needs to be done. 

Happy Trading to you!