Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 28th Apr 2022

  Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal above 17460

Nifty @ 17038 down 160 points- Bulls losing plot.

In past few posts we have been maintaining that overall trend of the market is positive as long as 17100 holds. 17100 was broken couple of times last week but both times it was temporary and markets bounced back above it on the very next today. Today again 17100 is breached and markets have closed below it and the way markets have closed today (& its inability to bounce back) is indicating that probably now it has been breached for real.

Overall, we were expecting markets to form 'neutral triangle' wherein the last leg (E) should have finished somewhere around 17100 and that should have marked the end of correction which started in Oct last year from 18500 levels. However now theres another probability emerging. Threres a chance that the entire correction is developing like a "Expanding triangle" in which case "E" could be > "C" and if thats true then we can fall below 16K levels once again. 

Nifty Daily

Here C>A & D>B. If E leg remains smaller then "E" and  finishes above the low point of "A" leg ( which is around 16500 levels) then the arguement that its a neutral triangle still remains valid however if it keeps falling below 16500 then chances are its an expanding triangle wherein E>C>A and that opens up target as low as 15K.

Neutral triangle is a bullish pattern which assumes low is already made by markets whereas expanding triangle is a bearish pattern where in the low is yet to be created.

In current E leg, markets took 9 days to fall from 18K to 17K and now even after 6 days markets are just barely above 17K levels which is indicating that the upmove or pull back we witnessed in last few trading session was just a corrective move and once its done markets can open another leg on the downside. 

In summary, the way markets are going , further weakness if witnessed from here should not be taken lightly. Bottom fishing should be avoided for time being ( till the time its seen that market has taken a support and bounched back above 17450 levels). Both A & C leg lasted for 8-9 weeks and E leg is now 3 weeks old, so it can continue for another 5-6 week which means weakness might persists for entire May month atleast.

Happy Trading

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 19th Apr 2022

 Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal below 17100

Nifty @ 17175 down 300 points- Bears on top. 

We had discussed in previous post that "we could witness some hesitancy around 18100 levels and markets could drop towards 17650 levels and below that final support level exists at 17100 levels"

We had also expected markets to continue exhibiting strength but we were proved wrong and markets broke below 17650 levels last week and today it opened with a big gapdown to test 17100 levels. This was not a preferred scenario but since 17100 was protected today and is holding, for now, we will keep medium term trend to UP only.

Markets have been falling/ creating a lower low continuously since last 8 days. Historically we have seen markets usually falling for 9-10 continuous days before giving some sort of bounce back. Markets are getting oversold as well hence its likely that fall is arrested in next 1-2 days and we see some sort of bounce. What happens after the bounce will be critical. If bounce fizzle out soon and markets drop below 17100 levels again then chances are we could see this fall getting extended towards much lower levels. On the other hand, holding 17100 and moving back above 17550-600  levels could push Nifty back towards 18k levels.

Happy Trading! 

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 05th Apr 2022

 Medium Term Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal level below 17100

Nifty @ 18040 up 2%- 18K reclaimed, bulls stamp their authority

Discussed in previous post "........ a double bottom around 17K levels which suggest a solid base is formed around 17k levels from where markets might attempt to launch itself towards 17500-17800 levels"

Markets did even better and moved above 18k levels very quickly indeed ( todays move credited to HDFC twins which single handedly pulled markets above this key psychological level). Having said this, its not really a surprise that we have moved back above 18K levels. It was always on the card and a strong possibility and that is the reason we have been advising against going short and instead use all dips to buy. Since last 2-3 weeks Nifty has moved from sub 16k levels to back above 18k levels, justifying our stance.

Now going forward we can see some consolidation or hesitancy around at 18100-18300 levels (which is justified) however no major weakness is visible on the charts yet and it wont be a surprise if Nifty moves even further from here. On the downside, levels around 17650 level should act as immediate support and  could be a good support area to buy. If 17650 is broken then we can fall towards 17100-17200 levels which is the medium support area for this entire move (chances of this scenario playing out is slim though).

In Nutshell markets are strong and the strength likely to continue for now, small dips/consolidation should not be construed as sign of weakness so dont be fooled by them. Markets seems to have trapped Bears ( gap-up openings are indicative of that) hence any significant fall (which takes market below 17K levels) is looking less and less probable now.

Happy Trading