Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 30th March 2022

 Medium Term Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal level @ 16800

Nifty @ 17325 up 103 points- Nifty continues to soar- More gains likely in near term

In our last post we had mentioned " What we are observing is that market could try and trap short traders ( around 16800-17K levels) and move up sharply from there." &

 "it seems markets has changed its medium term direction  and can move further up from here hence traders should be cautious in going short at these levels"

Now since our last update Nifty has moved up by around 450 points & confirms our view point and outlook was mostly in the right direction. Going forward we expect this positive bias to continue and (with intermittent pull backs which should act as buying opportunities). Market has already moved above a key resistance zone ( 16900-17000) which is very positive and has also posted a double bottom around 17K levels which suggest a solid base is formed around 17k levels from where markets might attempt to launch itself towards 17500-17800 levels. There are still many who are shorting the markets at every rise expecting lower levels however in my opinions such traders are likely to be disappointed & lose money.

Overall markets remains positive so we hold on to our view and expect markets to make further gains from here. So be cautious and if you are a trader & wants to make money then instead of 'sell on rise' try to 'buy on dips'. Levels wise  good support exists around 17050 -17100 levels for immediate level & below that @ 16850-16900 levels. As long as these levels hold, our view will remain intact.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 15th March 2022

 Medium Term Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal level @ 15800

Nifty @ 16870 up 240 points- Nifty exhibiting strength- likely to move further up in near term

In our last post we had posted a weekly Nifty/RSI chart for last 10-12 years where it was shown that generally bottom were formed when weekly RSI touched around 35-37 levels. Weekly RSI had dropped to around 36 last week ( when Nifty was around 15700) but recovered a bit to close the week at 40. Today its sitting at 45 levels which in many ways suggesting that probably correction we had been witnessing since last 3-4 months is ended now (or about to be ended soon).

We had also mentioned that if Nifty start moving above 16700 then it could mark the beginning of a fresh upmove. Nifty did move above 16700 levels last Thursday and retraced back a little however not much selling was observed after that and today it has moved back again above 16750 ( high of Thursday) which again is indicating that probably time has come for Nifty to move back again above 17K levels.

16900-16800 was an important support level for Nifty and same was broken after 3-4 months of multiple testing where markets dropped and took support at these levels many times. Such important supports when broken should not be tested again and again. Now what we are seeing is that markets dropped towards 15700 and now in a matter of 4-5 days has again come back to test this resistance (16800-900) zone. Now what is market trying to tell us here? If it was actually weak & wanted to go for a major crash then it would not hang around important resistance zone for too long. Is it waiting for traders to go short at important resistance level so that it can go down and all the traders can make money? no sorry to say but it does not work like that. Markets are not that easy. What we are observing is that market could try and trap short traders ( around 16800-17K levels) and move up sharply from there. If its not a short trap then market needs to move down below 15800 really really fast (looking slightly improbable from here).

In Nutshell, it seems markets has changed its medium term direction  and can move further up from here hence traders should be cautious in going short at these levels. Volatility is likely to remain high for some more time and sharp moves on both the sides are likely to continue but instead of 'sell on rise' traders would do well to 'buy on dips'.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 09th March 2022

  Medium Term Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal level @ 16700

Nifty @ 15985 up 160 points- pull back witnessed from lows

In our last post we had mentioned "inspite of so much weakness and skepticism, holding 16400-500 levels could push Nifty towards 17K-17100 levels. On the other hand continuous weakness below 16400 could drag nifty towards 16K and lower levels"

Last week holding 16500, Nifty had raised a possibility that a move towards 17K was possible however once nifty broke down below 16400-450 levels the chances of such a reversal became thin and Nifty went below 16k  (it even broke 15700 marginally) but then a sharp pull back at the end of day pulled markets back above 16K levels and from 150 points down at one stage became 150 points up.

Markets have been oversold recently hence its difficult to say if its actually just a technical bounce or some sort of serious pullback. VIX remains high (around 30s) and till the time it starts cooling off market will remain highly volatile. However point to be noted is the weekly RSI had touched 36 this morning and usually when RSI does that its close to making some sort of bottom. lets have a look at the chart below.

Nifty Weekly 2011-2022

Here one can see that in last 10 years or so whenever Nifty weekly RSI has touched mid 30s levels, markets have made some sort of bottom ( with an exception of Jan-2020 which was a covid thing). We had mentioned in one of our previous post that technical level of H&S pattern breakout (neckline at 16900) comes to 15100-15500 & at those level Nifty's weekly RSI will come to around 34-35 levels. 

So most probably areas around 15500 ( give or take 200-300 points here or there) could be the zone where market attempts to make some sort of bottom. Now please note that is not always easy to identify the bottom area in advance. Its only in the future when markets moves up from there that we are able to say that it was indeed a bottom area. Its also possible that bottom was already hit today itself, but till the time we see actuals evidence of markets bottoming out we are going to keep the mid term signal as down only (Earlier view that this could be a range bound market between 16500-18500 is not valid now).

In summary, ongoing weakness in markets could drag Nifty further towards 15400 levels and unless its start of a major bear cycle ( till now there is no evidence that it is one) markets should not fall much below these levels. On the upside holding above todays close and then moving above 16150-200 could be positive for Nifty. Major resistance is sitting at 16650 levels and till the time its not crossed, there is always a fear of markets turning down again.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 03rd March 2022

 Medium Term Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal level @ 17300

Nifty @ 16605 down 190 points- Weakness Continues

In our last post we had mentioned- ".......... Nifty has been making H&S pattern form Dec last year, neckline of same is sitting around 16850 levels. a break below neckline can open downside targets anywhere from16k to 15K levels. hence caution is still advised"

Market failed to move any higher & in next 4 trading sessions crashed to 16200 levels. 'H&S' neckline and much talked about support level of 16800-900 was broken with a huge gap-down. Though Nifty has bounced back from the recent low of 16200, its still trading below 16800-900 ( previous support turning into resistance now?).

Now moving forward we see a lots of skepticism and though quite a few things have been priced in by markets already some additional bad news could drag Nifty below 16k levels. Having said this, markets are hanging around just below 16800 levels which also raising a possibility that worst is probably priced in now and markets could start recovering slowly from here ( hanging just below important support areas after breaking them convincingly is also in a way positive only).

 On a high level, if you remember we had mentioned in previous posts that overall markets could trade in a broad range of 16500-18500. Till now market seems to be moving broadly in this range only. So going forward it will be interesting to see if markets manages to maintain this range inspite of negative news flow.

In summary, inspite of so much weakness and skepticism, holding 16400-500 levels could push Nifty towards 17K-17100 levels. On the other hand continuous weakness below 16400 could drag nifty towards 16K and lower levels. VIX is pointing at 30 which is pretty high so its best to avoid trading for next few days and wait for VIX to cool off.

Happy Trading!!