Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 21st Feb 2022

 Medium Term Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal level @ 17650

Nifty @ 17275 down 28 points- Fails to move above 17500

In our last post we had mentioned-

"Breaking of contracting triangle is a very bearish sign for markets. It confirms that initial fall from 18500 to 16450  was a trending move and the recovery we have seen after that (in the form of ABCDE triangle) was just a corrective move. This has opened up bearish targets for as low as 15500"

Now in last 4 days, markets did not exactly move in line with our expectations, and buoyed by news of Russians pulling from Ukraine, bulls pulled the markets back above 17300 levels on Tuesday itself thus negating the impact 'bearish contracting triangle'. Contracting triangles are a very reliable technical patterns and they work more often than not however this time it was not to be.

Having said this, inspite of a 500+ points pull back on Tuesday, Nifty failed to add more strength and closed just below Tuesday high which is keeping the bearish options (and lower targets) open still. Nifty may have been able to negate the contracting triangle, but there is another bearish pattern emerging on a slightly larger scale ( H&S pattern with a neckline at 16850-900) levels.

Nifty daily

In the chart above it can be seen that Nifty has been making H&S pattern form Dec last year, neckline of same is sitting around 16850 levels. a break below neckline can open downside targets anywhere from16k to 15K levels. hence caution is still advised. Usually from our experience, we have seen that any pull back (or pull down) which is based on news flow usually does not sustain and reverses back in coming trading session and if Tuesday's pull back of 500 points was all based on Russia-Ukraine news-flow then there is a high probability that markets will reverse from here. 

To keep bullish options make, Nifty must make a strong push above 17650 levels ( which was previous swing high). On daily charts and hourly charts Nifty is consistently making lower highs which is not instilling much confidence in the bulls camp for now.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 15th Feb 2022

 Medium Term Trend:👇(Down)

Nifty @ 16840 down 530 points- Black Monday & Weakness To The Core.

In our last post we had clearly warned that -

"Failure to sustain above 17600 levels is again pointing to the fact that market is still not out of woods and one more down-leg towards 17K-16800 is very much possible from here"

we had also mentioned that " with each successive days markets internals are getting weaker and the post budget move (17600-17800) is now appearing to look like one giant bull trap"

Last week we had also tweeted and posted  the below chart.

In the chart above, it can be seen that Nifty was potentially making a bearish contracting triangle,  confirmation of which was to come below BD line and same has come today. 

Breaking of contracting triangle is a very bearish sign for markets. It confirms that initial fall from 18500 to 16450  was a trending move and the recovery we have seen after that (in the form of ABCDE triangle) was just a corrective move. This has opened up bearish targets for as low as 15500 ( now not saying that Nifty will definitely going to touch it but its a possibility hence we must be prepared for it.

Nifty has been testing 16850-17000 support a lot of times already and ideally such important supports should not be tested again and again and though Nifty has closed just around this support zone, chances are it might not hold this time. If one is still holding on to long positions in a hope that 16850 will provide support yet again then please be careful.

Till now we had been saying that this could be a sideways phase for nifty (16500-18500) however now we have to change it. This is no sideways market, market is in grip of a strong bear wave and it will be premature to comment where it will end. 

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 07th Feb 2022

  Medium Term Trend:👇(Down)

Nifty @ 17516 down 44 points- Weakness Emerging Yet Again.

Nifty continues to remain volatile even after budget and made an attempt towards 18000 levels however it could not sustain above 17600-17700 levels and has again moved down towards 17500 levels.

When nifty moved above 17600 levels after budget, it looked good for a brief period & there were chances of market moving further towards 18K levels. However the failure to sustain above 17600 levels is again pointing to the fact that market is still not out of woods and one more down-leg towards 17K-16800 is very much possible from here. with each successive days markets internals are getting weaker and the post budget move (17600-17800) is now appearing to look like one giant bull trap.

Nifty now has a strong resistance placed at 17675-17700 levels and it must move above it quickly for any bullish scenario to emerge again on the other hand final support exists at 17340-17375 levels below which market could see sharp selling and move down to 17K or even lower levels once again.

In summary, markets are still looking very fragile & in case we do not start trading above 17700 levels but instead keep hitting lower lows and fall further below 17350 levels in next 1-2 trading sessions then more weakness is likely and market could see sharp dips once again. As mentioned in last update, market has taken support at 16800 levels already 2-3 times and this level ideally should not be tested again but if it does then the chances are it might not hold this time around.

Happy Trading!!