Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 14th Nov 2022

 Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal below 17250

Nifty @ 18350: Consolidating its gains!

In the past post we had mentioned "In summary, overall trend is still down but its giving sign that correction is maturing and markets are looking for an excuse to breakout from this correction. Continuous strength from here is likely to push Nifty back towards 18K and 18500 levels"

From the 17400 levels we have now moved up to almost 18400 levels (gain of ~1000 points in Nifty) which confirms that our analysis was broadly correct and Nifty is moving in line with our expectations only. Key to market analysis always lies in reading past charts and looking for similarities. Like they say, history often repeats in the market and what we are seeing today has already happened before (more than once) in the markets.

Now looking at overall charts, we don't see any sign of immediate reversal as yet infact, it is possible that now Nifty form some sort of base around 18K levels and launches itself from here. Since last one year we have seen 18-18500 levels as a strong resistance from the market and Nifty has not managed to successfully move over it. Now if Nifty manages to successfully move over it & sustains (and the chances are it will so we are actually counting on it) then this resistance can actually become solid support for the future and any correction then is likely to find support at this level.

From trading's perspective it doesn't make sense to hold on to short position or even create new one around 18400-500 (thinking its a resistance level). Market is not looking in the mood to reward bearish traders for now hence would actually make sense to enter long positions on dips (with proper SLs ofcourse). For near term we see very good support at 18100-150 levels and intraday sell off should be able to find support around/above this level only. Its possible that market continues to move from where and even cross 19K levels eventually.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 21st Oct 2022

 Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal below 16750

Nifty @ 17560: Nifty ready to take-off?

Nifty In the past post we had mentioned "Nifty is giving sign that correction is maturing and markets are looking for an excuse to breakout from this correction. Continuous strength from here is likely to push Nifty back towards 18K and 18500 levels"

We had also mentioned that-"..........in case market continue to see a move above 17400-500 zone then it is possible that we see a similar rally even this time too (will not be surprised to see a new high above 18500 levels in that case)."

Nifty has added 250+ points in last 3 trading sessions and has successfully managed to close above 17450 levels which has now prompted us to change the overall market direction to UP. bears had a small window of opportunities, but they failed to pull Nifty down in last 3 trading sessions. They way market is trading now is giving strong indications that some sort of base is being formed (or already formed) which can push markets up from here. Consolidation we are seeing are around 17500 is indicative of that only. We can continue to see 200-300 point drop (intradayor it my last 1-2 trading sessions) but eventually market should be able to pull higher from there. Traders can and should utilise the dips as fresh buying opportunities (ofcourse with strict SLs).  Next (small) resistance for Nifty is at 17650 and strong support exists at 17400 levels.

Happy Trading!

 

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 18th Oct 2022

 Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal above 17450

Nifty @ 17311: Nifty beginning to exhibit strength.

Nifty has been in a long consolidation since oct last year when the prices had touched 18500 levels. Since then markets have failed to move above it inspite of making several attempts. However, on the lower levels, we have also seen lots of supports coming in. US markets were virtually making a new low every day, yet our markets have managed to outperformed US markets by a big margin.

Now looking at most recent charts, there is a likelihood that correction we are witnessing is getting matured & markets can open a fresh leg on the upside. If markets start trading over 17425-450 levels in coming 1-2 trading sessions then that would be a good sign for the bulls.

Nifty Daily

Looking at chart above, the last 8 weeks (~40 trading sessions) are largely matching the pattern observed in June/July 2018, when after a strong rally, the markets went into a sideways to bearish zone for 8 weeks and after that a breakout was observed which pushed Nifty much higher. Even now we saw a strong rally from 15K levels back to 18K and since then we are seeing correction which is largely corrective and has now completed around same time period of 8 weeks (~40 trading sessions). Even the other technical indicators like RSI/MACD etc are dancing to the same tune. 

Technical patterns are nothing but just a reflection of past and in case market continue to see a move above 17400-500 zone then it is possible that we see a similar rally even this time too (will not be surprised to see a new high above 18500 levels in that case).

In summary, overall trend is still down but its giving sign that correction is maturing and markets are looking for an excuse to breakout from this correction. Continuous strength from here is likely to push Nifty back towards 18K and 18500 levels. Bears have been given lots of opportunities but they failed to inflict any sizeable damage (as in markets are just 7-8% down from their all-time high). For bears to regain control they must break below 17K levels soon or bulls can run away with the game pretty soon.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 10th Aug 2022

 Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal below 16550

Nifty @ 17525:  Nifty continues to post new high

In the old post, way back on 21st June (when Nifty was around 15600) we had mentioned that

"......the way we read markets, we see a probability of Markets attempting a pull back from these levels back towards 16000-16100 levels and sustaining above it could push markets all the way towards 17K levels"

Nifty has today moved above 17500 which is exactly in line with our expectations. When Nifty was trading  trading around 15600 levels, we had stuck our neck out and had claimed that last 10 months corrections seems to be getting over and Nifty can start moving up now. I think now that its been established beyond any doubt that market indeed is in a up trend and that an important bottom seems to have been made at 15500 levels, we need to analyse with a fresh perspective and look ahead.

We are of the opinion that going forward we can continue to see strength in Nifty. For short term perspective we see some resistance round 17580-600 zone above which Nifty can target 18K levels. On the downside the level around 17100-150 (just below  last Thursdays day low) assumes lots of significance. As long as this level holds, the uptrend remains intact. For bears to have any sizeable impact in near term, 17150-100 needs to be broken in next few sessions else bulls can continue to march ahead. Below 17100 the final support lies at 16600 levels and if that also gets broken then probably we are looking at retesting of last months low (however it doesnt look probable as of now).

In Nutshell, market remains positive and inspite of all the negative news flow about high intrest rates/inflation/fear of recession etc markets can continue to move up from here.To dent this current bullish structure, bears needs to break beow 17100 and then 16600 levels which is not going to be an easy task and until that happens traders should stick to long positions only.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 12th Jul 2022

 Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal below 15500

Nifty @ 16215:  Bulls Tightening Their Grip

In the last post , way back on 21st June (when Nifty was around 15600) we had mentioned that

"......the way we read markets, we see a probability of Markets attempting a pull back from these levels back towards 16000-16100 levels and sustaining above it could push markets all the way towards 17K levels"

Now today, after approx 20 days markets are standing above 16200 levels and even though the rise is slow ( which is understandable) there is no denying the fact the markets have entered bullish territory now. Last month when Nifty was crashing almost everyday and everyone was bearish, we stuck our neck out and call out the end of last 9 month correction and start of a new uptrend. 

Nifty's rise from 15600 to 16200 is a bit slow but its totally acceptable as markets are in the process of making bottom of last 9 month correction hence absorbing lot of time just around 16k level is understandable. What bulls are doing is they are keeping bears interested which makes us believe that this rally can extend much further from here. 

Going forward if Nifty holds 16050-16100 levels then we can see a rally towards 16500 and then 17K levels ofcourse mild pullbacks can be seen from time to time. on the downside if 16050 level breaks then we can see some more weakness towards 15900 levels but no major trend reversal is expected till Nifty breaks below 15500 levels. Shorts be careful, Nifty is giving small pullbacks after every rise which might be just a ploy by bulls to make you bleed slowly.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 22nd Jun 2022

Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal below 15000

Nifty @ 15640: Up 290- Bulls Regaining Control

In the last few post, we had been discusing whether the entire correction from 18500 levels (started from Oct last year) is developing as'netural triangle' or 'expanding triangle'. There were contradictory indications in favour of both the patterns however break below 15750 levels last week has now settled the debate conclusively in the favour of 'expanding triangle'. Here E>C>A & D>B meaning all directional legs are bigger than previous one.

Nifty Daily

In expanding triangles its difficult to predict the size of 'E' leg but here in the case the minimum requirements are already met. Another thing to notice in the chart above is the strong postive divergence emerging on the daily chart. Daily RSI has made a sort of double bottom (while Nifty has fallen 500 points lower than previous swing low).

Hence we believe, if Nifty continue to trade strong above 15500-15650 levels then it could push the Nifty back in strong position. Break below 15750 last week could actually prove in favour of bulls as it has helped in clearing weak hands or the short term traders from the market. There were many traders sitting on long position with a SL of 15750 and since it has broken there is hardly any incentive for anyone to hold on to their long positions. Infact now there are voices in the market & from the analysts on the TV, saying next logical level is 13000. We could see some fresh shorting around 15700 levels and if that doesnt materialise into weakness and Nifty manages to make a move towards 16000 then we could further short covering.

In summary, though anything is possible on the markets, the way we read markets, we see a porbability of Markets attempting a pull back from these levels back towards 16000-16100 levels and sustaining above it could push markets all the way towards 17K levels. On the downside we see good amount of support at 15250-15300 levels and fresh short positions are advised only once these levels breaks. 

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 30th May 2022

  Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal above 16550

Nifty @ 16355: Up 190- Bulls Regaining Control?

In the last post, we had discussed that "there are early indications & a small probability arising that probably markets have done with  the bottom at 15750 levels and we could see some upside from here". We had laid out 16000-16050 as the crucial support on downside and 16550-600 on the upside as the key resistance area. Nifty, did break below 16K on expiry day but recovered smartly to close above 16100 and today it has moved further up towards 16400 levels.

After seeing the movement of last couple of trading sessions, our view has only grown stronger. Though Nifty has not yet taken out the key resistance of 16650 ( now revised to 16550) there is a possibility that bottom is done for Nifty (its a bold statement and generally we dont make such claims till the time its visible on charts clearly).

Daily & hourly charts are revealing higher-top higher bottom kind of formation. First low was at 15750 then 15800 & yesterday (expiry day low) was around 15900. Similarly top area was also 16350 then 16415 and if on Monday market starts trading above 16415 then we will have another higher high. Also the timecycle is not playing out in favour or bears. Market has already consumed so many trading sessions & if there was some larger degree downmove pending then it should have been played out by now. 

Having said this as long as market is trading below 16500-550 theres still a hope for bears as the larger degree downtrend remains intact below this level. However, for any bearish scenarios to play out Nifty needs to fall below 15900 in a swift and sharp move else if bulls are allowed to operate in this zone for few more sessions then they are likely to run away with the game.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 25th May 2022

 Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal above 16650

Nifty @ 16125 down 90 points: Downswing Maturing?

In the last post (when Nifty was around 16300-400), We had discussed how markets are forming an 'Expanding triangle' and likely to fall below 16K level. We had also discussed that 'E' leg needs to be bigger than 'C' leg which mans a new bottom below 15750 is a possibility.

We did see some weakness in Nifty & Markets fell below 15800 in next few trading sessions itself however inspite of that, till now,  'E' leg has remained smaller that 'C' leg which raises two probabilities. (A) entire move is still unfolding like a 'Neutral triangle' where in C leg should be the largest leg of all directional move Or (B) its still an 'expanding triangle' only and one more leg on the downside is still pending to be unfolded.

Now one important thing to note is that 'E' leg has already consumed around 33 trading sessions which is similar to C leg time wise. In expanding triangles 'E' leg usually is sharper and faster than 'C' leg so ideally speaking by now Nifty should have broken below 15700 levels, which is not the case. 

Nifty Daily

Another imp point to note is the gap-down area of 19th May. On 19th May markets opened with a huge gapdown below 16K levels and closed at 15800 but the very next day this gap-down area was cancelled out with a gap-up opening. This is called "island reversal" and it carries bullish implication if not filled in next 1-2 trading sessions.

In nutshell, even though both options exists & overall trend of market is still down, there are early indications & a small probability arising that probably markets have done with  the bottom at 15750 levels and we could see some upside from here. Nifty has strong resistance at 16550-600 levels and moving above it could be the first strong signal that the last 8 months correction is coming to an end & trend is changing to UP. Falling below 16050-16000 levels (and filling the gap-up area) on the other hand could indicate that 'expanding triangle' is still unfolding and markets can fall further and create a new low below 15750 levels.  Traders should note the above two scenarios and then trade accordingly.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 10th May 2022

  Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal above 17300

Nifty @ 16300 down 100 points: Weakness Continues

We have been mentioning in the previous few posts that market is likely forming an 'expanding triangle' which if true, can push towards a new low below 15750 (previous swing low). In last 5 trading sessions Nifty has lost more than 1000 points, and even fallen below the low point of A leg ( 16900) increasing the possibility of the entire move (from Oct last year) is one of 'expanding triangle'.

Nifty Weekly

Looking at the weekly charts it can be seen that both A & C leg previously had consumed around 9 weeks and E leg is just in its 6th week only so there is a possibility that weakness we are witnessing can continue for next 2-3 weeks more and in turn Push Nifty below 15750 ( falling towards 15K levels or even lower is  a possibility too). 

Overall its not looking positive for markets and its possible that markets try to suck in 'dip buyers' towards 16k levels and then falling some more from there. However there is a silver lining as well, this leg ideally should be the last leg of entire ongoing correction we have been witnessing since Oct last year (8 months) and once this gets over in next 2-3 weeks should offfer good opportunity to add long positions. So this is not the time for bottom fishing, not yet. That will come later for sure.

Trading wise one can continue to hold on to short positions with part profit bookings with  trailing stop loss of 16800 levels. market has strong resistance at 16800-17K levels for short term and 17300 for medium term and till that is crossed, weakness is likely to continue.

Trade Well!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 05th May 2022

 Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal above 17300

Nifty @ 16680 down 400 points- weakness to the fore, bears on top.

In previous post we had mentioned the probability of market forming an expanding bearish triangle ( where E>C>A> and D>B). We had also mentioned that even though 17100 has been supporting market this time its possible that its broken for good. The above analysis was in danger of proving incorrect as markets agains bounced and touched levels of 17400 (just below our reversal level) in next couple of trading sessions itself. However after touching 17400 markets once again reversed and this time the sharp was fall and severe and hs taken markets to below 16700 which means a fall of around 700 points in 2-3 trading sessions, reiterating the importance of technical analysis.

Movement of last 10 days (ever since Nifty hit a low of 16850 on 19th Apr) is suggesting some sort of consolidation which seems to have been over on Monday just below 17400. Now markets probably has opened a new leg on the downside which can take markets below 15750 ( previous swing low).

Remember, expanding triangle is a bearish pattern wherein the markets have not yet hit a low. As advised in previous post, both A & C (directional down leg) lasted for around 9-10 weeks and E leg is in its 4th week only so this downswing can continue for another 4-5 weeks ( entire May month atleast).

In Summary inspite of smart pullbacks we are witnessing from time to time market remains bearish and these pullbacks are just acting as 'bulltrap' which would ultimately result in more weakness. For now its advised to stay out of long position. Traders are used to seeing Nifty take support around/below 17K levels and then bouncing back but such resilience can not last forever. E leg of expanding triangle is usually the ugliest of all 3 legs hence maximum caution is warranted

Happy Trading!

 

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 28th Apr 2022

  Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal above 17460

Nifty @ 17038 down 160 points- Bulls losing plot.

In past few posts we have been maintaining that overall trend of the market is positive as long as 17100 holds. 17100 was broken couple of times last week but both times it was temporary and markets bounced back above it on the very next today. Today again 17100 is breached and markets have closed below it and the way markets have closed today (& its inability to bounce back) is indicating that probably now it has been breached for real.

Overall, we were expecting markets to form 'neutral triangle' wherein the last leg (E) should have finished somewhere around 17100 and that should have marked the end of correction which started in Oct last year from 18500 levels. However now theres another probability emerging. Threres a chance that the entire correction is developing like a "Expanding triangle" in which case "E" could be > "C" and if thats true then we can fall below 16K levels once again. 

Nifty Daily

Here C>A & D>B. If E leg remains smaller then "E" and  finishes above the low point of "A" leg ( which is around 16500 levels) then the arguement that its a neutral triangle still remains valid however if it keeps falling below 16500 then chances are its an expanding triangle wherein E>C>A and that opens up target as low as 15K.

Neutral triangle is a bullish pattern which assumes low is already made by markets whereas expanding triangle is a bearish pattern where in the low is yet to be created.

In current E leg, markets took 9 days to fall from 18K to 17K and now even after 6 days markets are just barely above 17K levels which is indicating that the upmove or pull back we witnessed in last few trading session was just a corrective move and once its done markets can open another leg on the downside. 

In summary, the way markets are going , further weakness if witnessed from here should not be taken lightly. Bottom fishing should be avoided for time being ( till the time its seen that market has taken a support and bounched back above 17450 levels). Both A & C leg lasted for 8-9 weeks and E leg is now 3 weeks old, so it can continue for another 5-6 week which means weakness might persists for entire May month atleast.

Happy Trading

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 19th Apr 2022

 Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal below 17100

Nifty @ 17175 down 300 points- Bears on top. 

We had discussed in previous post that "we could witness some hesitancy around 18100 levels and markets could drop towards 17650 levels and below that final support level exists at 17100 levels"

We had also expected markets to continue exhibiting strength but we were proved wrong and markets broke below 17650 levels last week and today it opened with a big gapdown to test 17100 levels. This was not a preferred scenario but since 17100 was protected today and is holding, for now, we will keep medium term trend to UP only.

Markets have been falling/ creating a lower low continuously since last 8 days. Historically we have seen markets usually falling for 9-10 continuous days before giving some sort of bounce back. Markets are getting oversold as well hence its likely that fall is arrested in next 1-2 days and we see some sort of bounce. What happens after the bounce will be critical. If bounce fizzle out soon and markets drop below 17100 levels again then chances are we could see this fall getting extended towards much lower levels. On the other hand, holding 17100 and moving back above 17550-600  levels could push Nifty back towards 18k levels.

Happy Trading! 

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 05th Apr 2022

 Medium Term Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal level below 17100

Nifty @ 18040 up 2%- 18K reclaimed, bulls stamp their authority

Discussed in previous post "........ a double bottom around 17K levels which suggest a solid base is formed around 17k levels from where markets might attempt to launch itself towards 17500-17800 levels"

Markets did even better and moved above 18k levels very quickly indeed ( todays move credited to HDFC twins which single handedly pulled markets above this key psychological level). Having said this, its not really a surprise that we have moved back above 18K levels. It was always on the card and a strong possibility and that is the reason we have been advising against going short and instead use all dips to buy. Since last 2-3 weeks Nifty has moved from sub 16k levels to back above 18k levels, justifying our stance.

Now going forward we can see some consolidation or hesitancy around at 18100-18300 levels (which is justified) however no major weakness is visible on the charts yet and it wont be a surprise if Nifty moves even further from here. On the downside, levels around 17650 level should act as immediate support and  could be a good support area to buy. If 17650 is broken then we can fall towards 17100-17200 levels which is the medium support area for this entire move (chances of this scenario playing out is slim though).

In Nutshell markets are strong and the strength likely to continue for now, small dips/consolidation should not be construed as sign of weakness so dont be fooled by them. Markets seems to have trapped Bears ( gap-up openings are indicative of that) hence any significant fall (which takes market below 17K levels) is looking less and less probable now.

Happy Trading

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 30th March 2022

 Medium Term Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal level @ 16800

Nifty @ 17325 up 103 points- Nifty continues to soar- More gains likely in near term

In our last post we had mentioned " What we are observing is that market could try and trap short traders ( around 16800-17K levels) and move up sharply from there." &

 "it seems markets has changed its medium term direction  and can move further up from here hence traders should be cautious in going short at these levels"

Now since our last update Nifty has moved up by around 450 points & confirms our view point and outlook was mostly in the right direction. Going forward we expect this positive bias to continue and (with intermittent pull backs which should act as buying opportunities). Market has already moved above a key resistance zone ( 16900-17000) which is very positive and has also posted a double bottom around 17K levels which suggest a solid base is formed around 17k levels from where markets might attempt to launch itself towards 17500-17800 levels. There are still many who are shorting the markets at every rise expecting lower levels however in my opinions such traders are likely to be disappointed & lose money.

Overall markets remains positive so we hold on to our view and expect markets to make further gains from here. So be cautious and if you are a trader & wants to make money then instead of 'sell on rise' try to 'buy on dips'. Levels wise  good support exists around 17050 -17100 levels for immediate level & below that @ 16850-16900 levels. As long as these levels hold, our view will remain intact.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 15th March 2022

 Medium Term Trend:☝(UP) - Reversal level @ 15800

Nifty @ 16870 up 240 points- Nifty exhibiting strength- likely to move further up in near term

In our last post we had posted a weekly Nifty/RSI chart for last 10-12 years where it was shown that generally bottom were formed when weekly RSI touched around 35-37 levels. Weekly RSI had dropped to around 36 last week ( when Nifty was around 15700) but recovered a bit to close the week at 40. Today its sitting at 45 levels which in many ways suggesting that probably correction we had been witnessing since last 3-4 months is ended now (or about to be ended soon).

We had also mentioned that if Nifty start moving above 16700 then it could mark the beginning of a fresh upmove. Nifty did move above 16700 levels last Thursday and retraced back a little however not much selling was observed after that and today it has moved back again above 16750 ( high of Thursday) which again is indicating that probably time has come for Nifty to move back again above 17K levels.

16900-16800 was an important support level for Nifty and same was broken after 3-4 months of multiple testing where markets dropped and took support at these levels many times. Such important supports when broken should not be tested again and again. Now what we are seeing is that markets dropped towards 15700 and now in a matter of 4-5 days has again come back to test this resistance (16800-900) zone. Now what is market trying to tell us here? If it was actually weak & wanted to go for a major crash then it would not hang around important resistance zone for too long. Is it waiting for traders to go short at important resistance level so that it can go down and all the traders can make money? no sorry to say but it does not work like that. Markets are not that easy. What we are observing is that market could try and trap short traders ( around 16800-17K levels) and move up sharply from there. If its not a short trap then market needs to move down below 15800 really really fast (looking slightly improbable from here).

In Nutshell, it seems markets has changed its medium term direction  and can move further up from here hence traders should be cautious in going short at these levels. Volatility is likely to remain high for some more time and sharp moves on both the sides are likely to continue but instead of 'sell on rise' traders would do well to 'buy on dips'.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 09th March 2022

  Medium Term Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal level @ 16700

Nifty @ 15985 up 160 points- pull back witnessed from lows

In our last post we had mentioned "inspite of so much weakness and skepticism, holding 16400-500 levels could push Nifty towards 17K-17100 levels. On the other hand continuous weakness below 16400 could drag nifty towards 16K and lower levels"

Last week holding 16500, Nifty had raised a possibility that a move towards 17K was possible however once nifty broke down below 16400-450 levels the chances of such a reversal became thin and Nifty went below 16k  (it even broke 15700 marginally) but then a sharp pull back at the end of day pulled markets back above 16K levels and from 150 points down at one stage became 150 points up.

Markets have been oversold recently hence its difficult to say if its actually just a technical bounce or some sort of serious pullback. VIX remains high (around 30s) and till the time it starts cooling off market will remain highly volatile. However point to be noted is the weekly RSI had touched 36 this morning and usually when RSI does that its close to making some sort of bottom. lets have a look at the chart below.

Nifty Weekly 2011-2022

Here one can see that in last 10 years or so whenever Nifty weekly RSI has touched mid 30s levels, markets have made some sort of bottom ( with an exception of Jan-2020 which was a covid thing). We had mentioned in one of our previous post that technical level of H&S pattern breakout (neckline at 16900) comes to 15100-15500 & at those level Nifty's weekly RSI will come to around 34-35 levels. 

So most probably areas around 15500 ( give or take 200-300 points here or there) could be the zone where market attempts to make some sort of bottom. Now please note that is not always easy to identify the bottom area in advance. Its only in the future when markets moves up from there that we are able to say that it was indeed a bottom area. Its also possible that bottom was already hit today itself, but till the time we see actuals evidence of markets bottoming out we are going to keep the mid term signal as down only (Earlier view that this could be a range bound market between 16500-18500 is not valid now).

In summary, ongoing weakness in markets could drag Nifty further towards 15400 levels and unless its start of a major bear cycle ( till now there is no evidence that it is one) markets should not fall much below these levels. On the upside holding above todays close and then moving above 16150-200 could be positive for Nifty. Major resistance is sitting at 16650 levels and till the time its not crossed, there is always a fear of markets turning down again.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 03rd March 2022

 Medium Term Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal level @ 17300

Nifty @ 16605 down 190 points- Weakness Continues

In our last post we had mentioned- ".......... Nifty has been making H&S pattern form Dec last year, neckline of same is sitting around 16850 levels. a break below neckline can open downside targets anywhere from16k to 15K levels. hence caution is still advised"

Market failed to move any higher & in next 4 trading sessions crashed to 16200 levels. 'H&S' neckline and much talked about support level of 16800-900 was broken with a huge gap-down. Though Nifty has bounced back from the recent low of 16200, its still trading below 16800-900 ( previous support turning into resistance now?).

Now moving forward we see a lots of skepticism and though quite a few things have been priced in by markets already some additional bad news could drag Nifty below 16k levels. Having said this, markets are hanging around just below 16800 levels which also raising a possibility that worst is probably priced in now and markets could start recovering slowly from here ( hanging just below important support areas after breaking them convincingly is also in a way positive only).

 On a high level, if you remember we had mentioned in previous posts that overall markets could trade in a broad range of 16500-18500. Till now market seems to be moving broadly in this range only. So going forward it will be interesting to see if markets manages to maintain this range inspite of negative news flow.

In summary, inspite of so much weakness and skepticism, holding 16400-500 levels could push Nifty towards 17K-17100 levels. On the other hand continuous weakness below 16400 could drag nifty towards 16K and lower levels. VIX is pointing at 30 which is pretty high so its best to avoid trading for next few days and wait for VIX to cool off.

Happy Trading!!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 21st Feb 2022

 Medium Term Trend:👇(Down) - Reversal level @ 17650

Nifty @ 17275 down 28 points- Fails to move above 17500

In our last post we had mentioned-

"Breaking of contracting triangle is a very bearish sign for markets. It confirms that initial fall from 18500 to 16450  was a trending move and the recovery we have seen after that (in the form of ABCDE triangle) was just a corrective move. This has opened up bearish targets for as low as 15500"

Now in last 4 days, markets did not exactly move in line with our expectations, and buoyed by news of Russians pulling from Ukraine, bulls pulled the markets back above 17300 levels on Tuesday itself thus negating the impact 'bearish contracting triangle'. Contracting triangles are a very reliable technical patterns and they work more often than not however this time it was not to be.

Having said this, inspite of a 500+ points pull back on Tuesday, Nifty failed to add more strength and closed just below Tuesday high which is keeping the bearish options (and lower targets) open still. Nifty may have been able to negate the contracting triangle, but there is another bearish pattern emerging on a slightly larger scale ( H&S pattern with a neckline at 16850-900) levels.

Nifty daily

In the chart above it can be seen that Nifty has been making H&S pattern form Dec last year, neckline of same is sitting around 16850 levels. a break below neckline can open downside targets anywhere from16k to 15K levels. hence caution is still advised. Usually from our experience, we have seen that any pull back (or pull down) which is based on news flow usually does not sustain and reverses back in coming trading session and if Tuesday's pull back of 500 points was all based on Russia-Ukraine news-flow then there is a high probability that markets will reverse from here. 

To keep bullish options make, Nifty must make a strong push above 17650 levels ( which was previous swing high). On daily charts and hourly charts Nifty is consistently making lower highs which is not instilling much confidence in the bulls camp for now.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 15th Feb 2022

 Medium Term Trend:👇(Down)

Nifty @ 16840 down 530 points- Black Monday & Weakness To The Core.

In our last post we had clearly warned that -

"Failure to sustain above 17600 levels is again pointing to the fact that market is still not out of woods and one more down-leg towards 17K-16800 is very much possible from here"

we had also mentioned that " with each successive days markets internals are getting weaker and the post budget move (17600-17800) is now appearing to look like one giant bull trap"

Last week we had also tweeted and posted  the below chart.

In the chart above, it can be seen that Nifty was potentially making a bearish contracting triangle,  confirmation of which was to come below BD line and same has come today. 

Breaking of contracting triangle is a very bearish sign for markets. It confirms that initial fall from 18500 to 16450  was a trending move and the recovery we have seen after that (in the form of ABCDE triangle) was just a corrective move. This has opened up bearish targets for as low as 15500 ( now not saying that Nifty will definitely going to touch it but its a possibility hence we must be prepared for it.

Nifty has been testing 16850-17000 support a lot of times already and ideally such important supports should not be tested again and again and though Nifty has closed just around this support zone, chances are it might not hold this time. If one is still holding on to long positions in a hope that 16850 will provide support yet again then please be careful.

Till now we had been saying that this could be a sideways phase for nifty (16500-18500) however now we have to change it. This is no sideways market, market is in grip of a strong bear wave and it will be premature to comment where it will end. 

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 07th Feb 2022

  Medium Term Trend:👇(Down)

Nifty @ 17516 down 44 points- Weakness Emerging Yet Again.

Nifty continues to remain volatile even after budget and made an attempt towards 18000 levels however it could not sustain above 17600-17700 levels and has again moved down towards 17500 levels.

When nifty moved above 17600 levels after budget, it looked good for a brief period & there were chances of market moving further towards 18K levels. However the failure to sustain above 17600 levels is again pointing to the fact that market is still not out of woods and one more down-leg towards 17K-16800 is very much possible from here. with each successive days markets internals are getting weaker and the post budget move (17600-17800) is now appearing to look like one giant bull trap.

Nifty now has a strong resistance placed at 17675-17700 levels and it must move above it quickly for any bullish scenario to emerge again on the other hand final support exists at 17340-17375 levels below which market could see sharp selling and move down to 17K or even lower levels once again.

In summary, markets are still looking very fragile & in case we do not start trading above 17700 levels but instead keep hitting lower lows and fall further below 17350 levels in next 1-2 trading sessions then more weakness is likely and market could see sharp dips once again. As mentioned in last update, market has taken support at 16800 levels already 2-3 times and this level ideally should not be tested again but if it does then the chances are it might not hold this time around.

Happy Trading!!

 

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 31st Jan 2022

 Medium Term Trend:👇(Down)

Nifty @ 17100- Closed flat

Nifty opened on a positive note & was 250 point + at one point however selling pressure emerged once again and markets gave up all the days gain to close up flat. In the process market formed a 'shooting star' pattern on the charts and it can have strong bearish implications in case we see follow-up selling on Monday (below todays low).

In last post we had mentioned that overall markets seems to be in a range but the range seems quite big (16500-18500). Now looking at charts its possible that we may fall towards the lower end of this trading range (especially if we see weakness below 17K levels on Monday/Tuesday). hence we have changed the medium term indicator to 'Down' for the time being. There are more negative points than positive points on the chart so its better to pick a side instead of waiting on the sidelines.

Now lets talk about some of the points which are bothering us. Firstly, there was a strong pullback which started yesterday from the lows of 16850. Now markets have made a double bottom at 16850 which is a positive sign had market continue to move up from there. After a vicious fall of 1300-1400 points from top, 3-4 strong trading sessions were expected of markets, instead Nifty succumbed on 2nd day of pullback and its failure to hold on to its intraday gain today suggests weakness is still there and same also indicates that probably one more leg of selling is still pending.

We consider levels of 17450 as the 'breakdown' level of this fall, selling had intensified & turned ugly once this level broke early this week. It was important that Nifty had moved back above this level to regain some of the lost ground. However todays fall (even though markets just closed flat) from just below 17400 levels indicates that 17400-450 is now turning into a significant resistance and unless Nifty climbes back above it, theres is risk of markets moving back below 17K levels.

Another thing worth noticing is how markets expired yesterday. Some pull back from 17850 levels came at just the right time as if to give the incentive to buyers to roll over/ carry forward their position to next month series. Now there is a growing consensus in the markets that there exists strong support in the 16800-17000 zone which worries me a bit. Any support or resistance level which is known to everyone hardly ever holds.

In summary, looking at the way market has traded in the last 2 days, theres a probability emerging that another round of selling is possible from current levels which could take markets below recent lows (16800 levels). Hence caution is still warranted and bottom fishing should be avoided for time being let market build/show some strength ( move above 17450-500) before concluding that worst is over. 

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 27th Jan 2022

Medium Term Trend:👈👉 (Sideways)

Nifty @ 17275- Crashed 1300+ points in 6 days.

In last update, we had shared that we saw two possibilities emerging from here ' A- market makes a V shape recovery and shoots above 18500 levels or B- mkt consolidate between 17400-18500 levels for few more weeks' We had also mentioned that the other scenario where market fall below 17K level is our least preferred scenario and in case it happens we will relook at our options.

As it played out, our analysis was proved wrong & Nifty weakened below 17400 levels yesterday, tested 17K levels and today it even broke below 17K levels (though temporarily) before staging some sort of recovery and closing around 17300 levels. But now since market has convincingly broken below 17400 levels, its important that we re-analyse the whole scenario in the new light.

Fall we have seen in last few trading sessions has been pretty sharp with VIX rising sharply. Domestic (budget/elections), Global (Fed meet) & Geopolitical (Ukraine/Russia) events have taken center stage and playing out with the markets & traders sentiment. However inspite of such a brutal fall, we still would like to stick with our second option (i.e, option B- range bound trade) though with a revised range.

For now it appears market wants to trade in a sideways range (between 16500-18500 on a larger scale and 17000-18000 on a slightly smaller scale). We had previously noted ( ref  Nifty 20th Dec Update) that fall from 18500 to 16500 was extensive and broad based & its not uncommon to see market going in for an extended period of consolidation post such moves. So we wont be surprised to see market moving in this range of 1000-1500 point for few more weeks. 

Moving forward, it is likely that markets more or less has priced in these events, and unless global situation deteriorates severely, we do not see sustainable fall below 16700 levels. There could be flash trades (like today) but eventually market should be able to move from there. Moving above key resistance of 18000-18500 however will take some doing and wont be easy.

In Summary, inspite of the carnage we have seen in last 6 days, we maintain our 'Neutral' stance & not turning bearish yet. From trading perspective it makes sense to sit out for some time (or trade with light quantities). Scenario is likely to become clearer in coming trading sessions.

 Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 21st Jan 2022

Medium Term Trend:☝/👈👉 (UP/Sideways with upward bias)

Nifty @ 17757 - Nifty loses 600+ points in 3 days

Before we start analyzing markets, lets see what we had discussed last time around in previous update.

2nd Jan- "it may or may not run away above 18K and 18500 levels in a hurry and might just consolidate between 17-18K levels for some more time but the bias and trajectory even in that scenario is likely to remain on the UP or positive side"

When markets were trading below 17K levels we were clear in our analysis and had mentioned that downside seems to have played out and markets can move towards 18000/500 levels (it may or may not cross those level anytime sooner). Now even today we maintain our stand, even though markets have shed about 600 points in a matter of few days nothing has changed still. From here two options are likely to playout.

A) Market start making quick V shape recovery in coming trading sessions and move strongly above 18500 levels and touches 19K an beyond.

B) Market consolidate between 18500-17500/400 levels ( in a 1000-1200) point zone for few more weeks and then make a breakout.

There is a also a third option that market once again falls below 17K levels ( which is our least preferred scenario for now hence we are not considering it for time being. If we see sustained selling/weakness below 17500/400 levels then we will have a relook at our options again and post the update here.

In Summary, both the options mentioned above are positive and highlights the underlying strength in the markets hence trades can be taken accordingly. Till now we have not seen any reversal on the charts which suggests that we need to change/modify our stand (it is too soon for that). Its likely that market is 'adjusting' itself for the upcoming big event (Budget) hence some rise in volatility is totally expected. As a trader one has to be quite nimble capable of making a quick entry and exit and as always, its prudent to reduce qty slightly before such an event.

Dont try and predict market, always react to it.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 03rd Jan 2022

 

Medium Term Trend:☝/👈👉 (UP/Sideways with upward bias)

Nifty @ 17350 - Downcycle over & Nifty adding strength

In the last update, I had mentioned that "in both scenario it seems either markets have already opened a new leg on the upside or it will open the same on Monday" & "Time is running out for Bears and if they fail to act in next 1-2 trading sessions then its likely that Bulls can once again start controlling the markets"

Now in last 5 trading sessions ( since last update), market has added 350+ points. Nifty had dropped below 17900 levels on last Monday in a flash trade but it was for a very brief period and after that market has not looked back and is now adding strength (suggesting that down-move seems to be over now) which is exactly in line with my broad analysis.

Like I mentioned earlier, time seems to have run out for Bears and Bulls seems to have taken control of markets and if some are still holding on to their shorts expecting levels of 16500 or below then they are likely to be disappointed. As per me it is highly unlikely that markets will fall towards those level again now.

Overall market is looking strong and positive but since the damage we have seen in last 2-3 months was extensive, it may or may not run away above 18K and 18500 levels in a hurry and might just consolidate between 17-18K levels for some more time but the bias and trajectory even in that scenario is likely to remain on the UP or positive side. Trade should be executed on long side (preferably buy on dips) instead of sell on rise.

Happy Trading & A Very Happy New Year!!