Nifty View: Update for 3rd Dec 2018

Market Update:
Nifty opened again with a gap up but couldn't build up on it and kept consolidated throughout the day before closing 20 points up at 10875 levels. Nifty has broken above its crucial range of 10750-10850 and sustained above it throughout the day today which is a good sign for the bulls. Technically, markets may have started a new leg up and if it does consolidate here for few days ( or even a minor dip) then that should not be a worry sign for bulls. Bears on other hand, must look to cover their position as this market is definitely not favoring them at the moment. Trading wise we are sitting on good profits in the longs entered earlier this week and we are still holding them.

Trading Recommendations:
Like I mentioned in my last post, bulls can hold on to their longs ( even add more longs on the dips).We had entered long at 10600 and 10650 levels and part profit (25%) was booked at 10775 levels. I suggest all long positions can be held in Nifty with a SL of 10780. If you want to add more longs then must wait for some dip ( risk reward ratio has to be in your favor). No shorts are advised at this level and for existing shorts I have just one thing to say "Exit". Don't look at the price and just exit for now, you will get better opportunities to short again later.

Nifty View: Update for 30th Nov 2018

Market Update:
Nifty opened smartly with a gap up at 10800 and kept the momentum up for the whole day before closing at 10858 around 130 points up. I have been saying since last few days that 10750-10850 is a critical level as in October market had opened with a gap down at 10750 and till date this gap remained unfilled. Nifty took its time at this level and even dropped to 10500 after touching 10760 last week. We were long in Nifty from 10500 levels exited at 10700 and again went long at 10600 levels (position still open)

I also mentioned in my post yesterday that expiry day is crucial and will probably set the trend for Dec series. I had also mentioned that Nifty has probably finished the corrective downmove and should make a high above 10765 levels today to confirm that. Nifty obliged by opening above that level. There was a wave of short covering today which was evident throughput the day and this probably should continue for few more days. Its now a buy on dip market and all buys should be utilized to get into long positions. Technically Nifty might have started a new leg upwards but that doesn't mean you can go and long at any level, the entry point has to be a low risk zone.


Trading Recommendations:  We initiated two trades in last couple of days ( both trades were updated here live and in real time)

Trade-1 Buy @ 10595  50% sell @ 10735 and bal 50% sell today @ 10810 ( profit of around 160 points)

Trade-2 : Buy @ 10650 - Position is still open and not squared off

All longs can be held with a SL of 10780 now. No shorts are advised at this level and if you want to go long then wait for a dip else it will be risky to buy at current levels ( markets can anytime give a correction of 100 points).



 

Nifty Trade update:29th Nov

Exit longs initiated at 10595 ( balance 50%) at CMP 10810. Now we have only trade no. 2 open ( initiated at 10650)

Cheers! 

Nifty View: Update for 29th Nov 2018

Market Update:
Nifty Opened around 40 points up and kept trading in a tight range before closing at same price it had opened. Overall it was a still a good day for bulls. In my previous posts I had mentioned that Nifty has a stiff resistance around 10750-10850 level. This level is a huge gap down level which Nifty saw in October and till date its not been filled. Now its been more than 2 weeks that Nifty is hovering around it but is unable to break. This is understandable as naturally there is a bit of nervousness around this level ( since its so critical). 

Technically I feel that market is setting itself for its next move which hopefully should come on the upside. As per me Nifty has completed E leg of extracting triangle ( you may refer to my post dt 21 Nov for charts and wave counts) and should make a high tomorrow above 10765 levels to confirm it. It is important to see how the market behaves tomorrow. That will give us lot of clues as to how the Dec series is going to shape up.


Trading Recommendations:
We went long at 10600 and again at 10650 levels and today booked partial profit in longs entered around 10600 (spot price). SL is now revised to 10650 levels and one needs to exit if Nifty makes a candle close ( on 15 min chart) below this level. I don't have any specific upside targets as of now and I don't agree with analysts who gives these upside targets ( nifty often either crosses these targets or fall well short so they are meaningless). For now just stay with markets and maintain tight stop losses for your longs, probably in a day or 2 we will get further clues about what Nifty might do in coming days. Trade well Trade wisely.
 

Nifty Real Time Trade update 28th Nov

Nifty CMP 10735 : Part (50%) profit booking recommended for longs initiated at 10595. Hold balance longs (50% @10595 and 100% @10650)
 

We entered longs at 10595 & 10655 levels. Keep SL of 10630 for both parts ( one candle close below 10630 on 15 mins intraday chart)

Disclaimer: Please note I may or may not update all my trades live here however if I open any trade then will ensure its followed up properly till its closed/exited. Please properly manage your risk all the time.
 

Nifty View: Update for 28th Nov 2018

Market Update:

Nifty closed around 10685 levels up 55 points. It did give some nervous moments to traders initially but finally took support at 10600 and moved up sharply towards 10690 levels. Nifty is more or less moving in line with our expectations and probably has completed the last leg of down move ( E leg) yesterday. If nifty crosses 10765 levels before expiry then we can safely conclude that downmove for the time being is over and Nifty is probably ready to test higher levels. Offcourse everything can change if Nifty start trading downwards. That's how markets are and as a trader we should always be prepared for all possibilities.


Trading recommendation: We entered long yesterday around 10595 levels and further longs were added today at 10650 levels. Both the trades were updated here in real time. I am still not giving any upside targets but its recommended to hold it with a SL of 10595 ( exit if one candle close below 10595 on 15min charts). I will keep updating when to exit or book profit. Trade Well, Trade Wisely.

 

Nifty Real Time Trade update 27th Nov

Add more longs in Nifty ( CMP 10655 spot):  We added nifty at 10595 yesterday, more longs can be added at cmp .

Keep SL of 10575 for both parts.

Disclaimer: Please note I may or may not update all my trades live here however if I open any trade then will ensure its followed up properly till its closed/exited. Please properly manage your risk all the time.
 

Nifty View: Update for 27th Nov 2018

Market Update:
Nifty opened weak and traded around 10510 levels before shooting up and closing around 10630 levels ( up100+ points). I had mentioned in my previous post that Nifty seemed to be in range and no long/short is recommended at this level and if anybody is short then profit booking is recommended at current levels ( 10530).  

Most analyst and channels have been saying since last 2-3 days that Nifty is appearing weak and advising their clients to go short at current levels however I kept saying that even though Nifty is down 250 odd points in the last few days, the impulse on the downside seems to be missing. Market has given a slight hint that probably its ready to break the range and head towards higher level. That's the reason we decided to enter long position (I updated my trade in real time). We might add on to our longs if we feel Nifty is going to touch higher levels or exit our positions ( all depends on what Nifty does in next 2-3 days). Technically, I still feel Nifty is making an extracting triangle and is in its last leg ( E leg). Today probably it completed its E leg however its still not confirmed and we need further confirmation. Will keep updating as and when it happens.


Trading recommendation: We went long today around 10595 levels ( trade was updated here in real time) and still holding on to it with a SL of around 10515 levels. Will keep reviewing our trade and modify our SL according to Nifty movements. For now don't keep any target just keep a tight SL, need to see how Nifty is behaving before deciding on upside targets. If we get further confirmation then we might add more longs at higher levels. 

Nifty real time trade update

Trade Update: 26th Nov 2018

Buy Nifty future @ CMP (spot price mentioned): 10595  SL 10515 (spot)


I recommend buying Nifty futures based on spot nifty mentioned above (you may sell puts/buy calls depending on your preference).

Disclaimer: Please note I may or may not update all my trades live here however if I open any trade then will ensure its followed up properly till its closed/exited. Please properly manage your risk all the time.
 

Nifty View: Update for 26th Nov 2018

Market Update

Nifty again had a weak session and closed around 10525 levels down 75 odd points. I had mentioned in my Post yesterday that fresh longs are not recommended at this level however if someone is already short then he can hold the same with a stoploss of 10660 levels. Nifty today made a U turn from 10650 levels itself.

Nifty has fallen ~250 points in last 3 trading sessions and weakness is still persisting. Further weakness from these levels would suggest that market probably has opened a fresh leg downwards towards 10K levels. However no shorts are recommended at these levels. Market seems rangebound for now between 10500-10650 levels and further call can be taken only once this range  is taken out decisively.

Even though Nifty is trading weak the impulse on the down side seems to be missing and I would still stick with my preferred scenario as per which Nifty is making extracting triangle and this is the last down leg (Please ref my 20th Nov post for details). Everything will change if Nifty start falling down with speed that would mean new leg down has started now.


Trading recommendations: We booked profit in our long position (initiated at 10500)  couple of days back around 10700 levels and Nifty is already down 170 points from there. Since last couple of days we are suggesting 'wait n watch' approach and same holds true today as well. Fresh long at these levels is not recommended but if anyone is short then  is advised to book profit at current levels or hold it with a stoploss of 10620. Market is in tight range between 10500-650 and fresh trading calls will be taken once this range is taken out or I get some other signal. I will try to update my next trade (whenever we decide to go long/short) live and in realtime here itself.

Have a nice weekend & Trade well, Trade wisely.

Nifty View: Update for 22nd Nov 2018

Market Update

Nifty closed around 10600 ( down 0.5% for the day). Some more weakness was expected in Nifty once it broke below 10690 levels yesterday and that's precisely the reason we decided to book profit and exited around 10685.

From technical perspective there is no change in the wave counts ( you may refer my yesterdays post for the charts and wave counts). Nifty is falling but so far the impulse seems to be missing. Surely it can fall more from here and that's the reason we are waiting on sidelines for a better entry point. I would still go with my preferred scenario and keep a close eye on the current fall. Wherever and whenever it matures will try to enter again. If I feel its starting a new impulsive leg downward then might initiate short positions (chances of that happening seems less as of now but with markets you have to keep all the options open at all the times). Next week is expiry week and expect lots of volatility in Nifty now. So its extremely important that you enter at right point else you will find tough to manage your position and the choppiness is likely to give you lots of heart attacks.

Falling crude and recovering INR is good news for bulls but worsening global cues and high VIX (19.5) is acting as the headwind.

Trading recommendations: We exited our long positions yesterday around 10685 and Nifty is already 100 points below our exit point. For now I would suggest wait and watch policy. No fresh longs are advised here however if someone is short in Nifty then he can hold the same with a SL of 10660 levels.




 

Nifty View: Update for 21st Nov 2018

Market Update

After hitting a high of 10765 levels Nifty began its descent today. I had mentioned in my previous posts that Nifty might start a retreat from 10750-800 levels and it would be interesting to see how Nifty behaves after hitting 10750+ levels.

Like I mentioned in yesterdays post too, there is a big gap at 10750-850 levels and it wont be easy for nifty to fill it. We exited our balance longs today at 10685 levels once the SL was hit.

Technically  next few days are going to be interesting and nifty will try and set itself (for its next big move which might take it towards either 11K or all the way down to sub 10K levels. Now we don't have any open positions and will be going to observe the Nifty movement for next couple of days before entering again.

See the chart below. this is my preferred scenario. Seems like D is done today and E leg is opened downwards and Nifty should start its upmove again once the E leg is done.

Alternatively, this is a possibility too where Nifty is just completed a ABC correction and is about to start a wave 2 of impulse down now.

 

So I will just repeat what I have said in my previous posts. Important to see how nifty behaves in next few days and accordingly we will decide our next trading strategy in few days ( next wave could be a big move from here).

 

 

Trading Recommendations: We exited our longs today around 10685 (initiated around 10500). I don't recommend going long/short at current levels and would advice wait and watch policy for next few days.We have already made a profit of around 180+ points so it wouldn't hurt to wait a little. However, if someone went short today then he can hold it with a SL of 10740. Fresh long positions are advised only above 10750 now.

 

 

 

 

Nifty View: Update for 20th Nov 2018

Market Update

As expected Nifty opened around 10720 levels and kept consolidated around same level before making a late charge toward 10760 levels. I had mentioned in my post yesterday that 10750-10800 is likely &  10750-10850 is a big resistance zone for  Nifty. During September 10850 kept providing support to Nifty and then finally after testing this level 2-3 times Nifty opened with a gap down (10760). So on daily chart we have a gap between 10850-10750 which is still not filled. If Nifty can close above this gap then we are heading towards 11K+ levels again but it wont be easy. Like I mentioned in my previous post that it will be critical to see what Nifty does at 10750-10800 levels. If nifty keep consolidating & grinding around 10600-10800 levels then most probably its preparing itself for a sharp rise towards 11K levels again.

However there is a small probability that entire rise from 10200 levels is a A-B-C (irregular) correction and Nifty is in currently in its C leg. If this scenario is correct then we can see a sharp dip towards 10K levels again but chances of that happening seems low right now ( but with market we have to be prepared for all possibilities).

I had also mentioned in my previous post that nifty probably is making a extracting triangle ( in second corrective) and is in D leg. However now it seems that D leg was done around 10600 & E leg was done around 10450. so we have to keep this probability in mind too.

To Summarize, keep a close watch on Nifty now, consolidation around these levels ( including minor dip) will be a good news for bulls. However steep fall might indicate that sub 10k levels can be seen.

Trading recommendation: We initiated long around 10500 and part profit was booked around 10680 & now the balance position is being held with a stop loss of 10690. I do not recommend going long or short at current levels. Existing longs can be maintained with the stop loss mentioned above. Once SL hits, exit and wait for next trade ( long or short). We as a trader do not have to trade daily.

Nifty View: Update for 19 Nov 2018

Market weekly update

Currently market is facing stiff resistance @ 10690 levels which is also the 200 day EMA. Its good that market is consolidating just below this crucial level, there are many signs suggesting that this level would break eventually and nifty will see higher levels around 10750 probably 10800. However there are chances that once these levels are achieved we could see another dip towards 10500 and 10400 ( even lower).

It will be interesting  to see how nifty behaves after achieving 10750 levels. If it can hold these levels for few days then we are heading towards 11000 levels as there are still few shorts in the system and market could see a wave of  short covering if 10700 is breached. Technically speaking market seems to be making a double corrective since the top of 11750 and the second corrective is probably developing like an extracting triangle ( we are currently D leg of it and E leg downward is still pending). A bullish extracting triangle extracts the power of bears and transfer it to bulls (this is precisely what is happening in market right now). I need further evidence to confirm if its actually a extracting triangle and for now its just a possibility ( a strong one though).

Trading recommendations:We are currently Long on nifty ( initiated around 10500) and part profit booking was done today around 10680 levels. I do not recommend going long or short at current levels those having existing long positions can continue to hold it with a SL of 10595. Those sitting out needs to wait for a better opportunity so don't make a forced entry at CMP.