Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 10th Feb 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↓Down (Changes to up above 12175)

Range Bound Trade: Nifty opened around 12050 levels todays however dropped below 12100 subsequently and closed at just below 12100 down 30 odd points.

Yesterday we had mentioned that though Nifty has closed above 12100 levels ( which was our reversal level), we would like to see one more close above 12100 to seek a confirmation of its decisive break. Today Nifty failed to close above 12100 hence the near term trend remains down for now. Now looking at charts we have further revised the reversal level to 12175 ( just a tad above todays high).

Yesterday we had mentioned a possibility of Nifty forming a bearish 'evening star' pattern however Nifty needed a strong fall below 12K levels to confirm the pattern (which didnt happen) so we need to see if Nifty can protect 11980-12K levels on Monday as well. Looking at todays candle stick pattern, Nifty has formed a 'bearish belt hold' pattern. In such patterns the opening price becomes the day high and market is not able to cross it in entire days trading. Needless to say that this is again a bearish pattern (provided we see a followup selling below the low point of the day).

Now even though markets have failed to cross above 12100 the fall we have seen from 12150 is not inspiring much confidence for bears. It looks like markets are trying to consolidate for a next move on the upside, however it will be too early to comment and we need to see how market trades in next 2-3 trading sessions. In case market trades lack lustre and manages to protect itself from a deep cut then probably the bottom is done at 11630 levels But in case we do see some sharp cuts in next 2-3 sessions then there is chance that we could be testing the recent lows again.

Another thing which goes in markets favour is that its pretty light at the moment. The OI in Nifty futures is not very huge so that will definitely protect markets from falling big but again that doesnt means that we cannot fall 700-800 points from here.

In summary, markets are finding resistance in 12100-12150 zone and we see another move above these levels then probably the trend will change to 'up' again however if we do see a sharp move on the downside ( which remains a possibility till now) then the chances of retesting recent lows ( or even lower) will become strong again.

Happy Trading!! 

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers during live trading hours through regular whatsapp updates. To join us please click the below link/button or mail to rahulrtn412@yahoo.com or whatsapp:9319321906 (Pls don't call or send text for mkt view/opinion as we will not be able to respond to such msgs)

Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 7th Feb 2020

Medium Term Trend:  ↓Down (Changes to up above 12100)

Bounce Back Continues: Nifty continue to move on the upside and even tested 12150 levels today. It closed at 12135 (up 50 points).

We had changed the medium term trend to down and the reversal level was pegged at 12100. We have had one closing above 12100 levels already, needs to see if Nifty can close above 12100 again tomorrow as well and if that happens then probably the near term trend has changed to up as well. Hence for now we are holding the trend as down only.

Nifty has put on almost 500 points in last 5 days ( one can argue that as much points were lost too in similar time) and that is suggesting that buyers are ready and buying at every opportunity possible. Usually after a big fall, we dont like to see a V shaped recovery but prefer to see some sort of grinding and sideways movements as sometimes the V shaped recoveries are often fuelled by sentiments and greed rather than genuine buying.

Now today Nifty has made an doji like candle and the movement of last 3-4 days is appearing like a 'evening star' pattern on intraday charts. Evening star pattern is a bearish pattern however the confirmation for this pattern will come only if Nifty breaks below 12K level in next 1-2 trading sessions.

In Nutshell, though markets are looking strong they are also turning overbought and the pattern on intraday chart is looking like a possible 'evening star' hence some bit of caution is warranted at these levels. If market continues to move up and make a close above 12100-12150 tomorrow as well then there is very little will be left for the support of bulls. However till that happens, there is a chance that a strong move down is also witnessed in next 1-2 trading sessions

Happy Trading!! 

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers during live trading hours through regular whatsapp updates. To join us please click the below link/button or mail to rahulrtn412@yahoo.com or whatsapp:9319321906 (Pls don't call or send text for mkt view/opinion as we will not be able to respond to such msgs)

Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 5th Feb 2020

Medium Term Trend:  ↓Down (Changes to up above 12100)

Bounces Back: Nifty Bounced back smartly nearly recovering entire fall of the budget day. It opened strong above 11800 and kept on moving up. It finally closed at 11980 levels.

Yesterday we had changed the market trend to 'down' and had put the reversal level at 11975 levels, however considering the volatility and sharp moves we have adjusted it slightly and shifted it to 12100 levels.

We expect strong resistance in the 11950-12050 zone.

Further we had also mentioned that usually after a big fall we dont see V shaped recovery and in case it (sharp recovery) comes then there are chances that it wont be able to sustain. For markets to sustain higher levels its important that it consolidate and grinds first and then only start moving up its way up ( make some sort of a base before moving up).

Now what we have seen today is a clear V shaped recovery and we are not sure if markets have made any sort of base yet. Ideally speaking we would have liked to see some sort of consolidation before this bounce. Now since that didnt materialise, there is always a risk about sustainability of this upmove and it will be interesting to see if market manages to hold on to its gain and tries to move further up from here.

In our view, Inspite of a 250+ rally today the overall trend still remains down, the damage done during budget time was a big one and market needs little bit more time to heal itself.Right now it seems markets are trying to move without giving itself a chance to stabilize first and in such scenarios risk of falling back always remains.

In Nutshell, one should not get too excited seeing this pullback and as long as 12050-12100 is not conquered, there is always a risk of markets falling back to the recent lows (11600 levels) and one needs to keep that in mind. However in case market sustains these levels and goes on to cross 12100 in coming 1-2 trading sessions then probably something else is going on and we will have to reanalyze things but for now chances of market giving correction ( timewise and pricewise) remains.

Happy Trading!! 

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers during live trading hours through regular whatsapp updates. To join us please click the below link/button or mail to rahulrtn412@yahoo.com or whatsapp:9319321906 (Pls don't call or send text for mkt view/opinion as we will not be able to respond to such msgs)

Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 4th Feb 2020

Medium Term Trend:  ↓Down (Changes to up above 11975)

Weakness to the fore: Nifty witnessed a massive slide on Saturday and dropped 300 points to close at 11660 levels. It gave a small bounce today from the oversold territory and Nifty managed to close just above 11700 levels.

Last 3-4 days have been brutal for the bulls and bears have absolutely ruled the markets. Nifty even broke the 11800-11770 levels and closing of last 2 days has come well below this level forcing us to change our overall trend to 'Down'. We had been bullish on Nifty for quite some time (right from 10600 levels) and were expecting Nifty to hold on to 11850-11900 levels. However market has not respected these levels & that means the overall pattern has changed now from bullish to bearish. The upmove which started from 10600 odd levels seems to have finished now and market may spend some more time in 11500 territory before resuming the uptrend. 

As per our analysis there is no point in holding on to long positions now or in bottom fishing expecting a bounce back ( a bounce of 100-150 points can come any moment) but it needs to be seen if market is able to sustain those bounce. as a trader one must move in tandem with the markets and the strategy should change from 'buying on dips' to 'sell on rise'. No positional buy should be initiated till the time price confirmation is visible on the charts.

Whenever market falls big it usually doesnt give a 'V' shape recovery but spend some time consolidating and correcting a bit more.The upmove which comes after consolidation is generally the move which is sustained. If market start moving immediately from these levels then there is a chance that it wont be able to sustain ( as selling is likely to emerge again at higher levels). There are quite a few traders who are stuck in long positions and expecting markets to move up again in next few days and till the time all pre budget longs are not squared off, markets may not move much on the upside.

Having said this, the overall OI in nifty future is still pretty low and markets are not top heavy so a big fall from these levels is highly unlikely but choppiness and sharp movement on both sides is totally possible so keep that in mind.

In Nutshell, the upmove which started from 10600 odd levels seems to have finished now and market has gone into a corrective/bear trend from near term perspective. Though intermittent bounces are possible, they are unlikely to be sustained and market needs to spend some time at these levels (It might even fall a bit more from here). We can expect the resumption of uptrend only when the correction gets over and for the overall health of the markets it will be good if markets grinds and spend some more time ( 2-3 weeks) in consolidation mode so that remaning longs are frustrated and forced to square off. An upmove which follows after such a conslidation will be sustainable and a strong one. 

Happy Trading!! 

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers during live trading hours through regular whatsapp updates. To join us please click the below link/button or mail to rahulrtn412@yahoo.com or whatsapp:9319321906 (Pls don't call or send text for mkt view/opinion as we will not be able to respond to such msgs)

Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 29th Jan 2020

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11770)

Bears Returns: Nifty open flattish but found stiff resistance at 12150 levels and crashed to 12050 levels. It closed at 12055,down 60 odd points.

In last update we had mentioned that the way charts were shaping up it seems nifty is ready to make a dash towards higher levels once again. However it wasnt to be and nifty opened with a gap down on Monday below 12200 levels (in line with a crash in all global markets). Weakness in global markets pushed nifty below 12200 and today markets made a new low which broke the previous swing low of 12105. Therefore it must be said the correction which started from 12400 levels is still on.

Now the levels of 11940-11975 assumes a lot of significance. Please keep in mind that overall trend of the market still remains up but in immediate term we may see some more volatility/correction.  Bears need to take out previous low (which is sitting around 11930 levels) to make their position even more stronger. On the upside, Nifty needs to take out 12150-12180 levels for bulls to start making an impact and wresting controls from bears. The way option market has set up, it looks like expiry is going to be between 12k and 12200 levels hence real trending move is likely only after budget now. 

In nutshell, the weakness in global markets have once again puts the brakes on the upmove and pushed Nifty back in uncertain territory but the overall trend still remains up and serious dent in this upmove is only likely below 11940 11975 levels. Markets are likely to make a trending move only after budget and its highly unlikely that much will happen in next 2 days. 

Happy Trading!! 

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers during live trading hours through regular whatsapp updates. To join us please click the below link/button or mail to rahulrtn412@yahoo.com or whatsapp:9319321906 (Pls don't call or send text for mkt view/opinion as we will not be able to respond to such msgs)

Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 27th Jan 2020

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11770)

Finding its Feet: Nifty opened flattish but remained steady and inched up all the way to 11270 levels and added 70 points.

In the last post we had mentioned that there is a possibility that Nifty slips all the way to 12050 12k levels, however real danger will come only once this level is taken out.

Nifty was making a new low everyday but it broke the trend in previous session and didnt break the low it had creates previous day. Now today(24th), it went a step further and created a new high as well. This and the way charts are shaping up, suggests that market can try make another dash towards higher level( therefore one is advised against being on the short side for now). Next week is budget week so volatility is expected to be high. 

Overall trend of the market was always up but there was a threat building up for the short term which for now, it seems, has been subdued by bulls. Bears had a good opportunity to deal a good blow but bulls have again wrested the initiative.

From a trading perspective, we had booked profits in our long position around 12300+ levels and even created some shorts at those levels and profit booked below 12100 levels. Will be posting the detailed messages shared very soon. 

Happy Trading!

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers during live trading hours through regular whatsapp updates. To join us please click the below link/button or mail to rahulrtn412@yahoo.com or whatsapp:9319321906 (Pls don't call or send text for mkt view/opinion as we will not be able to respond to such msgs)

Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 23rd Jan 2020

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11770)

Downmove continues: Nifty continue to fall and today even tested 12100 levels. It closed at 12106 with a loss of 60 odd points.

In last few post we had mentioned very clearly that 12300 levels is a good support however its already tested once and incase its tested again and broken then we can even slip all the way back to 12000 12050 levels. Having said this, real danger will come only when nifty breaks below 12k levels.

Now we are pretty close to12050 12000 range, its become very very interesting to see how mkt reacts once it reaches there. The way option mkt is trading it seems mkt is building a stiff resistance at 12300 levels. Now if mkt fall below 12050 12k levels then in all probability we are going below 11900 levels (11900 was the last low mkt  had created in dec). Now if market makes a new low below 11900 then it will be a big bearish move as it would mean 100% retracement of last upmove (11900 to 12430) in less than 100% of time. This can carry huge bearish implications, however will cross that bridge when we get there. 

For now one needs to see if 12k holds or not. If it does then bulls are still in game. 

Happy Trading!

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers during live trading hours through regular whatsapp updates. To join us please click the below link/button or mail to rahulrtn412@yahoo.com or whatsapp:9319321906 (Pls don't call or send text for mkt view/opinion as we will not be able to respond to such msgs)