Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 18th Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11400)

Still Sideways : Nifty Today moved up and touched a high of 11975 levels but once again slipped from there and closed below 11900 levels. it closed at 11895 a tad below 11900 levels.

In last few post we have mentioning about a possibility of nifty remaining sideways and Nifty indeed is trading sideways for last 7-8 days. However after looking at the way market is trading around 11900, its a possibility that sideways trend is already over and nifty start moving up again from here. In any case , like we have been saying, the overall trend of the market remains up ( and will remain as long as 11400 is not broken).

Next weeks trading ( especially monday/tuesday) could be crucial. if nifty break below 11875-850 and drops to11800-820 level once again then the sidways trend could continue for some more time. However if market start trading srongly above 11950-11975 levels then there is likelyhood of market making a move towards its all time high ( 12100). Please note that sensex has already broken above its alltime high and its highly likely that nifty does the same too.

Market has been in a strong uptrend and will continue to see periodical correction or sideways swings. These correction can get over in 1 week or can take one month, thats totally upto markets and no one can predict that. Once shouldnot try to trade on the opposite side of the main trend ( short in this case).

In nutshell, keep an eye on 11950-11975 levels , a strong move above these levels could indicate that sideways trend is probably over for now and markets could move higher from here. However on the downside if Nifty start trading below 11875-11850 levels then probably it would mean the correction might stretch for some more time on the downside.

Happy Trading

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 14th Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11400)

Sideways : Nifty again slipped more than 100+ points from its day high and failed to hold on to 11900 levels. It made a low of 11820 levels and closed at 11840 levels (down 75 points).

Like we have been saying in last few updates, even though market remains in an uptrend from medium term perspective, there is a likleyhood that in short term or near term we could see some sideways trading or some weakness. In last 2-3 days nifty has slipped to 11800 levels from its high of 12K+ levels. Nifty had put up more than 500+ points from low of 11500 in 4-5 days hence a correction was always overdue. On a broader time frame we have seen 1500+ points rally from lows of 10600 so a timewise ( if not price wise) correction is always due.

Going forward too we can see some more weakness or sideways trading from current levels however looking at current fall its not looking like an impulsive move so chances of this correction extending below 11400-11500 looks remote for now. However if se see some sharp followup selling below 11800-11700 then we need to be cautious.

Overall we see Niftty eventually going back above 12000 & even12500 levels but before that we can see a period of volatility or sidways trading. it would be intresting to see if market does fall further from here and what is the manner of fall (sometimes the manner of fall tells a lot about market intention). Overall trend of market remains up as long as 11400 is held. Ccurrent correction can get over at any level between 11400-11900 and market can trade in a tight range doing nothing but once this correction gets over, we hould be seeing another leg on the upside.

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 11th Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11400)

Nifty today slipped 100+ points to close at 11900 levels. On weekly chart even though it posted a new high, the closing was almost flat.

We have been saying since last few days that even though the near term trend remains up the markets are looking a bit tired and the way markets are trading are giving an impression that its losing momentum slowly. However that doesnt mean that overall trend of the market has turned down, it only means that for near term there could be some sideways correction.

Yesterday Nifty closed above 12K and that must have been good enough to cut stoplosses of many traders who were on short side however today markets again slipped below 12K ( and even 11900). 

We had also mentioned that nifty needs a strong close above 11985 levels to signal start of a fresh uptrend. While Nifty closed above 11985 yesterday, it failed to close above it today and the weekly closing has come below 11985 levels as well.

For short term we could continue to witness choppiness and sideways trading and we dont think Nifty could fall much from here however a fall till 11450-11500 is very much possible ( ~400 points from cmp) and as long as 11400 is held the uptrend of the market remains up. A strong close above 12050-12100 would proably mean that sideway correction is over and markets have opend a fresh leg on the upside.

As per our analysis and after seeing the way the markets have traded in last few days it has become clear that markets wants to go higher (much higher from current levels) but the upmove might not come immeidately and nifty can spend a little bit of time (even 1-2 month is a possibility) at these levels. After all we have seen a strong rally of ~1500 points in last 40-45 days so some bit of consolidation is natural and healthy. Whenever this correction gets over markets are likely to open a new leg on the upside, till then trade light and as soon the charts give confirmation, one should go all in.

Trade well Trade wisely.

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 5th Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11375)

Upmove continues: Nifty inched up further 50 points to close at 11954 levels.

In the previous post we had mentioned that uptrend in Nifty remains intact hence buying on dips strategy should be adopted for now and one must refrain from shorting at this stage. We had also mentioned that even though markets are strong and likely to move up further from here there is a likelihood of markets sliiping from here a little as some bit of tiredness is creeping in the markets.

We did see markets slipping from 11950 levels on friday however today markets have againg bounced back and closed just a tad below Fridays high. For now the same view stands even now, we continue to see some bit of tiredness in the market which could result in some sort of a fall or some sideways movement ( mind you its just a probability for now) for short term. If we do indeed see some correction from these levels then markets can slip to 11650-11700 levels. 11650 is a very strong support for Nifty and markets are not likely to break this level easily however in case it does then we can drop further towards 11450-500 levels. 

Overall trend of the markets remains on the upiside and as long as 11400 is intact the trend remains intact too and if do see some correction which fails to break below 11650 and 11400 then it could prove to be an excellent buying opportunity once again. Shorts are suggested only below 11400 ( some bit of shorting can be done once 11650 is broken for a quick gain of 100-150 points with adequate SL). on the upside a strong close above 11980 levels would probably negate the chances of markets giving a short term correction from these levels.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 1st Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11200)

Soaring High: Nifty Continue to soar high and today touched a high of 11950 levels before giving up most of the gains towards close of play and settling at 11880 level up 30 points. 

We have continuously been saying that overall trend of the markets remains on the upside and traders should not try to short this market. Dips are likely to come and will come from time to time but those should be utilised to enter into long positions and not going shorts.

Nifty has put up more than 1000+ points in last 15-20 trading sessions and the way strength is building up in market it looks like market can scale even higher levels from hereone. Regular readers of this blog are aware that we predicted 13K levels last month and today markets have almost kissed that level and turned back.

Now does that mean everything is +ve in the market? not quite. The way markets are trading since last 2-3 days it seems some bit of tiredness is creeping up and momentum is begining to slow down a little.( even though there is nothing on the price chart which is suggesting that). If we see some price correction in next days then its highly likely that even the price chart will start suggesting the same. So there is likely hood of markets taking a bit easy from here on for next few days. it remains to be seen if we do indeed see some price correction ( which is looking possible from current levels).But still that doesnt mean that one  should go short at current levels, even if we see some weakness and market drops 200-300 points then once again it could be an exellent opportunity to go long.

In Nutshell, markets are rising every day and they are expected to go up further but one needs to be stay cautious as some tiredness is being observed at current levels which could result in some choppiness and some bit of selling from here. "Buying on dips" is the call of the hour and one should strictly avoid going shorts(for now).

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 29th Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11100)

Rangebound moves: : Nifty  opened flat then dropped 70-80 points intraday and went on to touch 11500 levels. However it moved sharply again and moved towards 11600 levels once again and closed flat at 11580 levels.

We had mentioned few days back that after touching 11700 we should see some pullback/volality and a downmove so it make sense to book profit and exit for some time but keep in mind we never recommended going short. market indeed has dropped around 200 points from 11700 now.

Now it seems market have started a corrective move exactly from 11700 levels ( which was the previous top as well) so on daily charts we have a double top like pattern.However the downmove  post 11700 ( last 2-3 days) is not indicating (yet) that markets have opened a big or trending leg on the downside hence the overall trend remains on the upside and it needs to be seen for how long and how far this corrective move can stretch. Like we mentoned in the previous posts, this corrective move on the downside can extend even upto 11200-11100 levels and even then the uptrend will remain intact.

Now we are not saying that markets are bearish and one should open a short position, all we are saying is that one should wait for this corrective move to end and the price confirmation is visible on the charts then go long. 

Trading position should always be on the direction of main trend. In this market, right now, the main trend is on the upside and therefore a trader should always be looking at opportunities to go long only.If you are not convinced about going long then sit tight but dont go short.

In nutshell, It seems market have completed some small wave on the upside and the shortterm corrrection/sideways movement is on ( which can finish here or even extend till 11200 levels). If we some fall from here then it could very prove to be yet another opportunity to go long so keep your eyes open. Till now there is no indication on the charts that this downmove can extend beiyond 11100 levels but in case market does fall and 11100-111200 is breaached then we will see and anayse further but like we said chances of that happening is not looking very strong (till today).

Wish everyone a very Happy and Prosperous Diwali.Please trade well and Trade Wisely..