Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 21st Aug 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11300)

Testing 11000: Nifty opened  flat to positive but lack of conviction in green zone pushed it back below 11K. It made another attempt to move in +ve territory in the second half but selling emerged yet again and Nifty went back to 11K. It finally closed at 11017 down 35 points.

Overall there is no change in our stance yet so will repeat what we have been saying since last few days. Its possible that markets have made some sort of bottom around 10780 however for this bounce to stretch further we need to see an upmove above 11175-85 levels. On the downside we had mentioned yesterday that 11K is likely to provide support and if its broken then we can head back to 10850-900 levels. Markets did drop to 11K levels but couldn't break it and it did provide some sort of support to the markets today.

Going forward too, same levels becomes important. Need to see if markets take support at 11K levels and try to push higher. For tomorrow 11075 becomes important above which market can try and test 11185 and if this level is crossed too then we are heading towards 11300 levels for sure. Medium term pivot level has been lowered to 11300 ( from 11365 earlier). If markets can manage to cross and sustain 11300 then much higher levels can be seen in Nifty.

On the downside todays low becomes important and a breach of same could push Nifty back to 10900 levels. Next couple of days are important and we expect markets to start some sort of trending move in next 2-3 days so from this perspective this weeks closing become very important.

Happy Trading


 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 20th Aug 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11365)

Gave up all the gains: Nifty opened strong today around 11100 levels and even went on to touch levels of 11150 before letting go of all the gains and closing almost flat.

Nifty has been showing strength at lower levels ( 10800-10900) at the same time its  also seeing some selling pressure above 11100 levels. Twice markets have tried but failed to close above 11150 levels.

We have been mentioning that Nifty has support at 10800-10900 levels and we could see some sort of a bounce back from these levels. We have seen a bounce back however for this bounce back to stretch further, we need to see a move above 11170-11185 levels. If markets can move and close above these levels then there is a strong possibility of Nifty testing 11350 levels ( which is also a crucial level for the medium term as per us). Technically too many daily oscillators have also started moving in +ve territory now ( MACD turned bullish couple of days back).

For now inspite of the fact that we saw a sell off from days high, the short term upmove which started from 10800 still remains on track and we need to see if markets attempts another shot at 11170-11185 levels and manages to surpass it. Once this level is conquered we can hope to see another 150-200 point rally in Nifty. On the down side if 11K level breaks then probably we are heading back to 10850-900 levels.

Happy Trading

 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 19th Aug 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11365)

Finding Support: Nifty opened down below 11K levels on the back of carnage in US stocks and made a low of around 10930 levels however buying support emerged yet again at lower levels pushing Nifty back above 11K levels. It made a high of around 11070 levels and closed at 11050. Up 20 points.

We have continuously been saying that its possible that some sort of near term bottom is formed already at 10780 levels. We had also mentioned that if levels around 10900 holds then we can see 11K + levels once again. We saw Nifty bouncing from 10900 levels on Wednesday and even today Nifty bounced back sharply form 10930 levels and todays upmove assumes a lot of significance since it has come inspite of Dow falling by 800 points. This shows market is building some sort of strength.

Just to take a step back, we went bearish in Nifty once 10985-11K levels were broken earlier this month as it was an imp level from long term perspective however the nature of fall witnessed below 11K levels didn't inspire much confidence about a sustained bearish move and the fact that weekly close was back above 11K levels suggested that break of 10985 was probably a false break hence change in our stance too.

We expected markets to take some support at 10850-10900 levels which actually happened and markets moved to 11100 levels. Now that markets have moved above 11K levels we need to see a move above 11175-11190 levels followed by a move above 11365 levels. If Nifty can manage that then we can see a further sustained towards much higher levels.

For now, in nutshell, we continue to believe that probably a short term bottom is done at 10780 levels and as long as 10900 holds we can assume that markets can move up from here. On the upside Nifty will face stiff resistance at 11100 and 11190 levels. Once these levels are crossed the next level to watch out for will be 11365 and crossing above 11365 will be a very big positive and could pave for much higher levels for Nifty in times to come. On the downside 10900 levels is a very important support and if its broken then probably 10800 could be tested again. Traders with long position can continue to hold with a SL of around 10900 levels.


Happy Trading

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 16th Aug 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11365)

Nifty Bounces: Markets opened in +ve territory today and moved above 11K levels. It touched a high of 11075 levels before giving some of the gains and finally settled at 11030. Up 105 points.

Yesterday we saw a huge fall of 200 points from 11100 levels to 10900 and today Nifty managed to recoup a substantial portion of that loss. Yesterday inspite of markets tumbling down we had clearly mentioned that if 10900 level holds then we can see 11k+ levels once again. That's exactly how the markets played out and Nifty managed to close above 11K levels and almost touched 11100 levels in intraday trade.

We had also mentioned a possibility of Nifty making some sort of bottom around 10780 for Near term. If its true then we should be seeing a new high above 11181-200 soon on the other hand if Nifty start exhibiting weakness below 10950 levels then probably 10800 can be tested again and below that 10600 is the immediate target.

Ever since markets touched a low of 10800 we turned cautiously optimistic and for now we continue to remain so. There is a possibility of Nifty moving up towards 11200 levels, however markets are likely to be  in near term so sharp moves of 100-150 points can always be expected on both sides hence one should be prepared for such violent moves always.

Happy Trading and Happy Independence day!

 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 14th Aug 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11365)

Nifty Tumbles: Markets open flat and 11115 levels  but kept on getting weaker as the trading progressed throughout the day and gave up almost 200 points from day high. It finally closed at  10925 down 180 points.

 In the last couple of post we had mentioned the possibility of Nifty taking support at 10850 levels and moving higher. Nifty did take some support and even moved to 11181 but the upmove came to an abrupt end and Nifty tumbled back to 10900 levels. We had also mentioned that in case of downmove market should get some support at 10925-10950 levels and further fall is likely only below this trading range. Today markets has managed to close almost at the lower end of this support zone.

For tomorrow a slightly adjusted 10870-10900 zone becomes important now. If we see follow up weakness below 11900-870 levels and probably we can say that the move from 10800 to 11181 was a corrective move and same is over & the probability of Nifty making a new low below 10780 and then towards 10600 will increase further.

Market remains highly volatile and volatility may increase further in coming days. There is a chance that markets have formed some sort of bottom around 10780 levels ( provided 10870-900 holds) and if it holds then we can expect to see Nifty back again above 11K levels.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 13th Aug 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11365)

Bounce Continues: Nifty opened strong at 11100 and went to touch a high of 11175 some profit booking at the end pushed it back to 11100 and Nifty finally closed at 11110 (up 77 points).

We have been mentioning that though Nifty is week we can see a bounce from 10850 levels and we did see a strong bounce yesterday and it continued even today. Good thing about todays move is that it managed to cross 11125 and closed above 11100 which is indeed a positive sign for the bulls. Last week when Nifty broke below 10985 we had mentioned that even long term trend has been changed to down. Now usually whenever long term support is taken out the fall we see is vicious however in this case even though Nifty fell to 10770 the fall wasn't a big one and that is on of the reason we were suspecting a bounce from 10850 levels.

Yesterday we had mentioned that basis one day move its too early to conclude if the down move is over and Nifty has started another leg on the upside. However now that weekly close has come above 11100 levels, the probability of Nifty starting a fresh upmove from these levels has become slightly stronger. If Nifty can sustain 11100 levels in coming sessions then probably we can see testing of 11300-350 levels and once 11350 level is surpassed then this upside move will gain further momentum.

In summary, since the weekly close has come above 10985-11K zone, we are assuming that long term trend is intact ( inspite of couple of daily close below this level) and we further need to observe and see if this level is sustained and if it does then we are moving much higher from here however if weakness starts then 10925-10950 level should offer some very good support and if somehow it gets broken then we are looking at 10600 levels in near term. One thing is clear, we don't see any point of shorting this market at this point (as long as 10900 is intact).

Markets are likely to be volatile going forward and an intraday or overnight fall of  150-200 points can not be ruled out hence all SLs needs to be adjusted accordingly.

Happy Trading!









 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 9th Aug 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11365)

Strong Bounce Back: Nifty opened at 10900 levels and dropped to 10850 quickly but saw a strong support in the region which lifted markets all the way to 11050 ( more than 200+ rally). it finished strong at 11032 levels up 175 points.

Yesterday we had categorically mentioned that even though markets are in downtrend 10850 is the area from where we can expect a bounce and that's exactly what we witnessed today. There were quite a few technical factors indicating towards a possible bounce from these levels.

Now that the bounce has come and Nifty has moved back above 11K levels can we assume that downmove is over and markets are ready for an fresh upmove? answer to this question is yes it can but its too early to conclude anything. One day bounce amidst a strong downmove can not be conclusive. We need to see further strength above 11100 and 11125 levels to even start thinking about a fresh upmove. If Nifty can cross and sustain 11125 then we can probably see some more strength returning in the markets, on the other hand if markets fails to do that and break below 10925 levels then we are heading towards 10600 for sure.

In Nutshell, keep an eye on 11125 levels. Markets crossing and sustaining above 11125 will be a positive sign and on the downside 10950-925 should offer significant support for time being. If 10925 breaks then we are headed lower once again. If markets can manage to cross 11125 and 11360 after that then we can hope to see 12K levels once again.


Happy Trading