Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 21st Jan 2022

Medium Term Trend:☝/👈👉 (UP/Sideways with upward bias)

Nifty @ 17757 - Nifty loses 600+ points in 3 days

Before we start analyzing markets, lets see what we had discussed last time around in previous update.

2nd Jan- "it may or may not run away above 18K and 18500 levels in a hurry and might just consolidate between 17-18K levels for some more time but the bias and trajectory even in that scenario is likely to remain on the UP or positive side"

When markets were trading below 17K levels we were clear in our analysis and had mentioned that downside seems to have played out and markets can move towards 18000/500 levels (it may or may not cross those level anytime sooner). Now even today we maintain our stand, even though markets have shed about 600 points in a matter of few days nothing has changed still. From here two options are likely to playout.

A) Market start making quick V shape recovery in coming trading sessions and move strongly above 18500 levels and touches 19K an beyond.

B) Market consolidate between 18500-17500/400 levels ( in a 1000-1200) point zone for few more weeks and then make a breakout.

There is a also a third option that market once again falls below 17K levels ( which is our least preferred scenario for now hence we are not considering it for time being. If we see sustained selling/weakness below 17500/400 levels then we will have a relook at our options again and post the update here.

In Summary, both the options mentioned above are positive and highlights the underlying strength in the markets hence trades can be taken accordingly. Till now we have not seen any reversal on the charts which suggests that we need to change/modify our stand (it is too soon for that). Its likely that market is 'adjusting' itself for the upcoming big event (Budget) hence some rise in volatility is totally expected. As a trader one has to be quite nimble capable of making a quick entry and exit and as always, its prudent to reduce qty slightly before such an event.

Dont try and predict market, always react to it.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 03rd Jan 2022

 

Medium Term Trend:☝/👈👉 (UP/Sideways with upward bias)

Nifty @ 17350 - Downcycle over & Nifty adding strength

In the last update, I had mentioned that "in both scenario it seems either markets have already opened a new leg on the upside or it will open the same on Monday" & "Time is running out for Bears and if they fail to act in next 1-2 trading sessions then its likely that Bulls can once again start controlling the markets"

Now in last 5 trading sessions ( since last update), market has added 350+ points. Nifty had dropped below 17900 levels on last Monday in a flash trade but it was for a very brief period and after that market has not looked back and is now adding strength (suggesting that down-move seems to be over now) which is exactly in line with my broad analysis.

Like I mentioned earlier, time seems to have run out for Bears and Bulls seems to have taken control of markets and if some are still holding on to their shorts expecting levels of 16500 or below then they are likely to be disappointed. As per me it is highly unlikely that markets will fall towards those level again now.

Overall market is looking strong and positive but since the damage we have seen in last 2-3 months was extensive, it may or may not run away above 18K and 18500 levels in a hurry and might just consolidate between 17-18K levels for some more time but the bias and trajectory even in that scenario is likely to remain on the UP or positive side. Trade should be executed on long side (preferably buy on dips) instead of sell on rise.

Happy Trading & A Very Happy New Year!!

Nifty Analysis Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 27th Dec 2021

 

Medium Term Trend:👇 (Downswing maturing)

Nifty @ 17003 - Nifty Finishing 10 day Downcycle and Managing close above 17000

In the last update, I had mentioned that "it remains to be seen if Nifty manages to move back above 16800-17K levels. Chances are that price wise correction seems to have completed and what we are seeing is just an exaggerated move on the downside which could reverse in a similar fashion in coming trading sessions (when I say reverse I mean move back above 17K levels and not necessarily above 18500 levels).

So after 3 consecutive close just below 17000 levels, Nifty has managed to make a move above 17K levels again and more importantly the weekly close has also come above it which is positive indeed. Another important thing to note is that the lows of Monday were protected and not tested again which suggests that fall witnessed on Monday was just an exaggerated fall or an excess move or a false break on the downside (now that market has moved back above 17K levels).

16900-17K levels was a good support and if the market was actually planning an extended bearish move then ideally it should not have been tested again (let alone mkts trading above it).

We had also highlighted how market is following a 9-10 day cycle of up-moves and down-moves since last 2 months & looking at the charts it seems either the last down-move finished in just 6 days (Monday) or in a irregular move in 10 days (today). In both scenario it seems either markets have already opened a new leg on the upside or it will open the same on Monday.

Overall market still seems to be in Bear trajectory but its hanging just by a thread and can breakout any time. Time is running out for Bears and if they fail to act in next 1-2 trading sessions then its likely that Bulls can once again start controlling the markets.

We may or may not see a runaway rally (as I had pointed out in the last update as well) but even if its a sideway move from here, it will be a sideway move with a positive bias ( where markets slowly but surely be moving up).

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 21st Dec 2021

 

Medium Term Trend:👇 Down

Nifty @ 16614 - Blood Bath after Black Friday

In the last update, when Nifty was around 18K levels I had mentioned that.." fall towards 17500/600 (or even a bit lower towards 17K) is very much possible in the current wave".   Nifty tested 17K levels in Nov end and attempted a recovery and moved towards 17500 levels but could not sustain above it and in a matter of 4-5 days has fallen >1000 points towards 16500 levels.

I had also mentioned that I am not expecting any major sustainable fall below 17K levels (based on time cycle study) however today market has convincingly broken below 17K levels which might change things a little bit going forward. Having said this its just one day and it remains to be seen if Nifty manages to move back above 16800-17K levels. Chances are that price wise correction seems to have completed and what we are seeing is just an exaggerated move on the downside which could reverse in a similar fashion in coming trading sessions but one must not try to do bottom fishing and and from trading perspective it make sense to not indulge in long trades for time being ( when I say reverse I mean move back above 17K levels and not necessarily above 18500 levels)

Nifty Daily

In the daily chart above it can be seen that Nifty is following a 9-10 days cycle for each up and down leg. Entire downmove from 18500 level can be read as 5 legged ABCDE and we seem to be in E leg which is in 6th day of fall. Going by the current cycle its likely to continue for another 3-4 trading sessions and after that we might see some sort of recovery. 

Important thing is that since the fall has taken 5 legs , markets may not move back above 18K levels in a hurry and can instead go in for another sideways/corrective mode (preferably between 17K and 18K levels) which might last for another 8-10 weeks. If the fall was a 3 legged fall and markets had made the bottom in Nov end towards 16900 levels then we could have expected a new high soon but now things might get delayed. Overall view remains bullish but it remains to be seen if we see a lot more sideways trading between 17-18K levels for next couple of months.

Similar situations had played out in 2019 too ( see below chart) after a severe fall markets went into a long sideways consolidation. It remains to be seen if same scenario is repeated in 2021-22 as well. 

Nifty Daily (Sep19-Mar20)

There is a strong probability of one thing though, after next 3-4 trading sessions we may not see such exaggerated moves on the downside anymore and that could be the end of this downcycle. It may or may not move towards new highs but its not likely to break down further from current lows.

Happy Trading!!

Nifty Analysis Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 17th Nov 2021

 

Medium Term Trend: 👈👉 Sideways (with Negative Bias)

Nifty @ 18000 - Sideways Trend /Negative Bias continues

Due to personal reasons and time constraints couldn't update the blog for last few months so apologies however going forward will try to update blog once a week atleast.

Market has been in a sideways trend for last few weeks and many traders are on the bullish side expecting markets to break above 19K and similarly there are many traders who feel market has seen a decent rally and is due for a healthy correction which could take Nifty to 16K levels. Market has been disappointing both sides and just trading in a narrow band between 18500-17500. Options premium (on both sides) are seeing time decay and buyers (calls as well puts) are bleeding slowly.

Now many feel market has been in sideways to negative trend for last couple of weeks however as per my analysis it seems markets are in sideways trend since Sep 25/26 ( since it hit a high of 17980 levels). Now even though market hit a new of 18500 after that, it still was part of consolidation only. Charts are indicating that market reached some sort of 'maturity' zone near around 18000 in Sep end itself. This flat trading and sharp whipsaws we are witnessing since then are part of this consolidation only.

Nifty Daily chart

In the chart above can be seen that markets were at 18K levels on Sep 26 and even today markets are at same level. Also from 18500/18600 levels we saw a fall which lasted for ~9 days and brought Nifty to around 17600 levels ( ~ 1000 point fall). Now in last 10 days we have corrected the same by ~61.8% price wise which is raising the possibility of one more fall towards 17600 levels (or lower) in the days to come.

Good thing is ~7 weeks have already passed and markets are still trading near 18K only which rules out the chances of any major crash from here ( if any major crash had to come then it would have come by now) however it does not mean we cant fall a little more from here. A fall towards 17500/600 (or even a bit lower towards 17K) is very much possible in the current wave.

Historically speaking, we have seen markets spending 7-10 weeks in similar conditions undergoing consolidation & now that we have already spent ~7 weeks already then it is possible that we are nearing the end of this sideways consolidation. Having said this, like we mentioned above , its also possible that one final leg on the downside is pending & it could be sharper than what we have seen till now ( just to frustrate/scare away remaining buyers) and takes mkt towards/below 17500 levels.

Thats the view for now, if there is any change then will post the update in coming days.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for 26th July 2021

Medium Term Trend: ☝ UP (Changes to down below 15400)

 Nifty @ 15920 - Breakout is likely round the corner.

In previous post we had mentioned that the way Nifty has crawled above 15900 levels ( intraday and not with a strong thrust or gapup), there is a chance that this breakout proves to be a false one and Nifty once again drops in the sideways range. Thats exactly how its played out and next three days Nifty was back at 15600 levels. However in one of the older post ( for 13th July) we had also mentioned that-

"From a bullish standpoint, that will be an ideal scenario. Market goes down below 15650, traps bears and then make a sharp move back towards 15800-15900"

 From what we have seen during last couple of trading sessions, I wonder if the above scenario is beginning to unfold now. In a way what we were expecting then is probably happening now. For a bullish move to begin its important that weak long hands are thrown out and probably thats what market achieved when it made a sharp dip below 15600 levels on Tuesday and equally sharp recovery is also indicating that now market has made up its mind to move beyond 15900. We had also posted one Nifty intraday chart few days back suggesting that correction probably got over as 5 legged ABCDE triangle however that too warrants a change now since its proven that breakout was a false breakout. Below is the updated count. 

Nifty Daily

As per updated count the correction is folding as a complex corrective ABC-X-ABC (where in first corrective pattern was regular zigzag and second was irregular). Now the thing about complex corrective is that they can develop as triple three correctives as well .Chances of a triple three are less though but in case even now Nifty fails to move decisively above 15900 then that could mean ABC-X-ABC-X-ABC is undergoing which means markets could continue to trade sideways for atleast 2 more weeks. But like I said earlier, chances are less and its likely that we are very near to a decisive breakout. The fact that weekly closing has come below15900 is infact a good sign for bulls. From a bullish standpoint it will be great if this level gets broken with a sharp thrust/gapup next week.

In Nutshell, it appears as if Nifty is close to giving a decisive breakout above 15900 in next week and watch out for a strong trading session early next week. Having said this, if we see continue to see lackluster move next week too then its likely that 3rd leg of corrective start developing and we spend 2 more weeks in this range but this is our least preferred scenario for now and we expect markets to make a decisive move on the upside soon and we advise traders to hold on to their long positions (with proper SL ofcourse).

Happy Trading!

To Join our Nifty algo buy/sell whatsapp message service during market hours, pls click⤇ Nifty Buy/Sell Algorithm or whatsapp @ 9319321906

To see our recent trading calls for Nifty Algo- Pls click ⤇ Past Trade Summary (updated till 21st Jun).  

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for 19th July 2021

 

Medium Term Trend: ☝ UP (Changes to down below 15400)

 Nifty @ 15920 - Much awaited breakout ??

In previous update we had posted a daily Nifty chart and had mentioned that its possible that some sort of bottom is done around 15650 levels and we see Nifty moving above 15900 in next 3-4 trading sessions. Nifty did exactly that and we have had a weekly close above 15900 now. Intraday Nifty even hit a high of 15950+ levels.

Having said this, since the breakout has come intraday (in a slow manner) and not with a strong gap-up, there is a chance that this breakout proves to be a false one and fizzle out in next few days and Nifty drops in the range ( 15500-15900) once again. One need to keep a close watch at 15850-15900 zone, this area has been broken out after much effort and a long time so ideally Nifty should now trade above it and move higher. In case Nifty start trading below it ( today it threatened to do so for some time but then bounced back)  then that will not be a very positive sign.

So will keep it short for today, in summary, though Nifty has moved above 15900, the manner in which it has moved is not inspiring much confidence. To confirm its bullish stance Nifty needs to move strongly above 15900. If Nifty fails to do that and bears manage to drag it below 15850 once again then its likely that breakout we saw yesterday/today was not actually a breakout but a mere expansion of the sideways range. Next week is a truncated week ( just 4 days of trading) and probably will confirm if its an actual breakout or just a false one. Till then be cautious and dont be greedy. 

Happy Trading!

To Join our Nifty algo buy/sell whatsapp message service during market hours, pls click⤇ Nifty Buy/Sell Algorithm or whatsapp @ 9319321906

To see our recent trading calls for Nifty Algo- Pls click ⤇ Past Trade Summary (updated till 21st Jun).