Nifty Today : Nifty analysis, Trend and Prediction

Monday, July 12, 2021

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for 13th July 2021

Medium Term Trend: ☝ UP (Changes to down below 15400)

Nifty @ 15700 - Sideways trade continues (Support at 15650 resistance at 15900)

The game of sideways trade continues and market continues to frustrate traders. Market is stuck in a very small range and traders are getting restless now. However traders should understand that sideways trades are as much part of the market as upswings and downswings are and its totally fine and normal and infact healthy for markets to trade sideways.

Also, market cannot and will not remain in such a limbo forever and sooner or later it will break out ( or break down). Instead of wasting ones capital and energy on such sideways/nothing trade, one should rather sit out and wait for right time to enter. But most traders lose lot of capital in these sideways trade (usually option buyers) and the when the actual breakout happens, they have very little capital and energy left to make a fresh trade.

Now like 15900, this level of 15650 has been tested too many times and its likely that market breaks it and drop down further towards 15500 levels in next couple of trading sessions. When markets stuck in tight range its not unusual to see a false break out first. Now I am not saying that market is going to give a false breakdown below 15650 but its possible. Incase market goes down below 15650 then one needs to observe if its sustaining below it. Below 15650 next support is at 15500-550 levels and only when market start trading below 15500 can we conclude that actual breakdown has taken place otherwise it could just be a bear trap.

From a bullish standpoint, that will be an ideal scenario. Market goes down below 15650, traps bears and then make a sharp move back towards 15800-15900 (just one of many scenarios which can play out). Will have to see how market plays in next few trading session. A break below 15500 in next 1-2 trading sessions could inflict a bigger damage on the charts but till that happens, I continue to believe that markets are likely to head higher eventually (whenever this correction gets over).

Happy Trading!

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Tuesday, July 6, 2021

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for 7th July 2021

Medium Term Trend: ☝ UP (Changes to down below 15400)

Nifty @ 15820 - Facing stiff resistance at 15900

Now its been more than 20 trading sessions that Nifty has failed to close above 15900. Every time market touches 15900 we see some kind of sell-off which again take nifty down however nifty is not falling much either and its just stuck in a range of 15900-15600.

Now everyone knows that the obvious trade is to sell Nifty at 15900 and buy at 15600. The thing about obvious trade is that when everyone knows about them ( hence obvious) then they seldom works. Market cannot trade in such a narrow range for long and sooner or later it has to break it and as per our analysis the chances of market breaking on the upside is much much higher. We have seen such scenario playing out multiple times in the past and whenever resistance is a fixed point ( like 15900 in this case) markets have broken above it. Its possible that we spend some more time in this range but eventually market is going to break it.

In such cases, many times, the breakout takes place with a gapup (or gapdown in case of breakdown) opening. Market wouldnt want traders to buy when it finally decides to make a move above 15900 levels so its a possibility that market opens above 15900 with a strong gapup some day. Fall from 15900 intraday today therefore is not a surprise and probably thats not how market is planning to take this level down.

On the downside we have seen 15600-650 is a strong support for now and below that 15450 levels. Its looking unlikely for now that market will break these levels in immediate future.

In Nutshell, trading in a range is possible for a few more days but eventually market is expected to break above 15900 and head higher. This level of 15900 is tested too many times and now has to break, we will be really surprised if markets make some kind of important top around this zone. If the breakout happens with a gapup then it will indicate that markets are very strong. On the other hand if the breakout is slow and happens intraday then we need to be watchful for it could be a bull trap in the making.

Happy Trading!

Sunday, June 27, 2021

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for Next Week (28 Jun-02nd Jul 2021)

Medium Term Trend: ☝ UP (Changes to down below 15400)

Nifty @ 15860 - Market Resumes Uptrend

Last week we saw Nifty dropping to 15500 levels and moving back again towards 15900 levels. Though it was a range bound move, nifty failed to break below 15450 levels and held on it and move back towards 15900 levels which suggests upmove is still intact and Nifty is likely to move towards 16K and beyond.

Last week we had discussed "if we see positive open on Monday and Nifty sustains above todays high then its likely that correction is already over as ABC irregular (secnario-1) and Nifty moving towards higher level and on the other hand if we see a gap-down open & strong fall below 15450, then scenario B is playing out (which is a bearish scenario) and could take Nifty below 15K levels"

Nifty opened weak on Monday (due to weak global cues) but held 15450 which we had mentioned as the crucial support going forward. Seeing Bears inability to take market below 15450 Bulls once again got active and they not only succeeded in defending 15450 but took markets back towards 15700 on the same day itself and subsequently moved towards 15900.

Last couple of weeks markets were appearing a bit overbought but this consolidation has ensured that this is not the case anymore and markets are not in so much overbought zone now. Trading wise we had clearly mentioned if Markets make a move above 15700 then its strong and hence only long trade should be initiated. Markets are already 150+ points from 15700 and moving forward its highly likely that resistance area of 15900 will give away sooner or later and markets will make a move towards 16k+ levels. Support area is now shifted to 15650-700 levels and till the time it holds the short term trend is likely to remain positive. 15900 has been tested enough times and is not likely to hold for long now.

Happy Trading!

Friday, June 18, 2021

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for Next Week (21-25th Jun 2021)

Medium Term Trend: ☝ UP (Changes to down below 15400)

Nifty @ 15683 - Sideways trade

Current week was a tad volatile, initially we saw a drop towards 15600 then Nifty rose and touched 15900 only to drop towards 15450 today & then recover sharply & close at 15700 levels.

Overall Inspite of the volatility Nifty has just closed flat but the movement we saw during last few days is very interesting and probably next couple of sessions will help decide if Nifty has made an intermediary top at 15900 levels or mkt will continue to rise & move beyond 16K+ levels. We had always maintained and mentioned in the last post that markets were overbought and negative divergences were also visible on the charts however there was no weakness on the price charts and charts were still looking good and strong. Now what this movement (last week) has done is that it has brought weakness to the price charts too. Bears got very close to turning tables on bulls but were prevented in the end (thanks to last hour pull back). Now moving forward we see two possibilities.

A) Bullish Scenario: Last 5-7 days movement has played out like an irregular corrective pattern, drop towards 15600 earlier in the week was A leg, then move to 15900-B leg and move towards 15450 today was C (last leg). Once C leg got completed, market opened a fresh leg on the upside and moved sharply towards 15700. If this assumption indeed is correct then market is likely to continue moving up and move beyond 16K levels soon. To confirm this scenario Nifty should sustain above 15730-750 levels on Monday ( just above todays high) & then move above 15800.

B) Bearish Scenario: This scenario assumes that market has hit a short term top around 15900 last week and a fresh corrective move has started from there. Fall we witnessed on Wednesday, Thursday & first half today supports this theory very much. Its just the sharp pullback we witnessed in second half which contradicts it. However it is important for Nifty to break below 15450 (Sensex 51500) soon. While Nifty bounced back exactly from 15450, Sensex hit a low of 51600. In short, if we see a drop towards 15450 again in next 1-2 trading session then its highly likely that this scenario is playing out hence trade accordingly. At the time of writing this post, DOW is trading 400 points down so anything is possible.

In Nutshell, if we see positive open on Monday and Nifty sustains above todays high then its likely that correction is already over as ABC irregular (secnario-1) and Nifty moving towards higher level and on the other hand if we see a gap-down open & strong fall below 15450, then scenario B is playing out (which is a bearish scenario) and could take Nifty below 15K levels.

Next week (initial 1-2 days specially) could be very crucial hence be alert and trade wisely, lot of points could be up for grabs, if, as a trader you keep patience and trade wisely.

Happy Trading!

Friday, June 11, 2021

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for Next Week (14-18th Jun 2021)

Medium Term Trend: ☝ UP (Changes to down below 15100)

Nifty @ 15800 - Inching up slowly

In the last post we had discussed

"In Nutshell, market are in slightly overbought territory ( as its moving in one line since past many days) but markets can stay in overbought territory for long hence its not a reason to go short but continue to maintain long position with tight stop losses. Markets are strong and in bullish zone now and there is no reason why it cant move beyond 16K in this upmove"

In the last week market has moved further up towards 15800. Its definitely facing resistance around 15800 however no major weakness or selling pressure is seen till now. On Wednesday markets dropped towards 15600 which raised the questions if markets are starting a correction for short-term. However yesterdays and todays pullback is indicating against that. This upmove we are seeing is likely to last for few more days and we can see one more leg on the upside before market gives any sort of correction.

Overall market continues to be overbought and we are also seeing negative divergences on hourly chart however on price chart there is no weakness still and momentum is still strong and likely to continue. There is no reason why markets cannot rally further 400-500 points before correcting a bit. VIX is continuously falling and is now below 15 ( which is the lowest level for current year). Low VIX is also indicating that we might see some more buying interest and hence more upside from here only thing is upmove could be gradual and slow.

Since markets are overbought, the things can change anytime hence no sign of weakness should be ignored. Any weakness persisting beyond 3-4 days could result in short term reversal. Having said this the trading should still be done on the long side only with strict stop losses ( like we discussed in previous post as well).

As far as levels are concerned for short term levels around 15650-625 should offer good support and below that 15500 is the major support area below which market could drop towards 15100 which is the final support level of this upmove. And like we mentioned in previous post, keep a tight SL, exit when market exhibits sign of weakness and enter long again when strength remerges.

Happy Trading!

Friday, June 4, 2021

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for Week 07th Jun 2021

Medium Term Trend: ☝ UP (Changes to down below 15000)

Nifty @ 15670 - Consolidating at @ 15700

Since last update (May end) Nifty has added further ~500+ points and continue to trade strong. Regular reader of our blog are aware that we had been talking about this upmove/rally when Nifty was at 14300-400 levels in March/April.

Today, once RBI announced no change in repo rate and downgraded FY21 GDP growth from 10.5% to 9.5%, there was a small sell off but it was quickly absorbed at 15640-650 levels and bulls prevented further damage. Now market has reached a stage where it moves in positive direction in absence of any news and a negative news merely causes it to take a pause. Market participants & general public is still in disbelief and now are waiting for a big correction but so far its eluding. It will come one day but the current chart are are suggesting that its probably some distance away and might not come immediately.

Nifty is now in unchartered territory and any level on upside is possible hence its not wise to talk about higher levels and resistances but levels around 16k-16500 are very much possible in this wave. On the down side we see 3 strong area of supports.

For short term, we have decent support at 15550-75 levels & below that very strong support exists at 15300-25 level can see strong buying emerging and then final support rests at 15K below which the medium term trend will change to down.

In Nutshell, market are in slightly overbought territory ( as its moving in one line since past many days)

but markets can stay in overbought territory for long hence its not a reason to go short but continue to maintain long position with tight stop losses. Markets are strong and in bullish zone now and there is no reason why it cant move beyond 16K in this upmove. Keep a tight SL, exit when market exhibits sign of weakness and enter long again when strength remerges should be the trading strategy for coming week.

Remember money is made only by riding a trend and not by questioning it and predicting its reversal (that way you will only lose your capital).

Happy Trading!

Friday, May 21, 2021

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for Week 24-28 May 2021

Medium Term Trend: ☝ UP (Changes to down below 14450)

Nifty @ 15175 UP 270 points - Exhibiting super strength

In last 15-20 trading sessions Nifty has shown remarkable strength and it has moved from the lows of 14250 to 15100 (almost 900 points) which is very much in line with what we had been predicting from last couple of months. We had repeatedly been saying that the current downmove which we are seeing is just a consolidation move and once its over Nifty is likely to open a fresh leg on the upside. All the negative news (Corona cases etc) is only going to act as a fuel for the rally.

Wave count posted in 14th April post

Nifty Daily Till 14 Apr

How Nifty Actually folded

Nifty Daily Till 21st May

Now that we have seen a clear breakout its highly likely that Nifty is heading towards its all time high ( 15400) levels and may be beyond that. Market is strong and its gaining strength by each passing day which is evident from the higher highs and higher lows. 15000-15050 was a strong resistance for Nifty which has been cleared today (final hope for bears is gone now). Today we have seen a huge amount of OI buildup in May15K put which suggests market is likely to trade above this level till expiry atleast.

On upside we have some resistance around 15400 levels (previous high) and beyond that 15600 and on the downside we see strong support at 14900-15K band. Any weakness is likely to find support at these levels. For bears to seize the initiative they must break below 14840-50 levels in next 4-5 trading sessions ( before expiry) failure to do so will only add more strength in Bull's camp. Below 14850, final support lies at 14450 levels and till the its not broken, the overall trend is likely to remain on the upside.

Happy Trading!