Medium Term Trend: ☝UP (Changes to Down below 12100)
Nifty @ 12700+ Nifty has been hovering around 12700 levels for last couple of trading sessions and it went on to test 12600 couple of times but held the previous swing low ( 12550 something).
We had mentioned in the previous post that sharp upmove from 12550 levels to 12750 levels, which was witnessed on Wednesday, could be an early sign of exhaustion and if market goes on to break below 12550 then it could be a strong indication that upmove is over for time being. Now market has so far managed to protect Wednesdays swing low ( which is a +ve sign) but at the same time it has not broken above 12750-800 either and just stuck in a range which again raises the question if the current upswing is maturing.
Today market has completed 10 days of upmove and in these 10 days it has risen by almost 1200 points which is a lot and like we have mentioned in earlier posts as well, any upswing or downswing usually last for 9-10 days and after that we (usually) see some consolidation or price wise correction. Now that we have completed 10 days it will be interesting to see if we do see some consolidation/correction from here.
Technically speaking, we are seeing loss of momentum which is not a very encouraging sign however nothing is there on price charts which is suggesting a reversal yet. 12550-575 remains a critical level and only when market goes below it can we hope for a corrective move/consolidation to begin. Overall now Nifty has very-very strong support at 12400-450 levels and in case 12575-550 breaks then market can fall 100-150 point more towards 12400 levels ( which can be a good buying opportunity).
From trading perspective, we have been continuously urging everyone to book part profits around 12700 levels and if 12575 breaks (sustains for 15-20 mins) then all long should be exited once. Till then some long position can still be carried. No shorts should be initiated as markets can reverse and rise sharply anytime from any levels.
Wish Everyone a Happy Diwali & Happy Trading
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