Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 13th Jul 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 10300)

Resistance at 10850: On Friday Nifty once again failed to move above 10850 and dropped to 10720 during intraday trade however pulled back towards 10760 levels to close with a modest loss of 50 odd points.

In last couple of posts we have been mentioning about Nifty hitting some kind of top around 10850 levels. Now as we have seen Nifty indeed is not able to cross it but neither its breaking below 10700 levels on the downside. Its moving in a tight range/band between 10700-10850 levels. Markets seems to be in correction mode but like we mentioned in the previous post, its very much posible that this correciton gets over in a sideways trading (its not always necessary markets to fall price wise to complete a correction). 

Basis latest chart, a move above 10870-90 could indicate that markets have finished with the correction and its ready to move towards higher level towards 11100-11300. On the downside, Fridays lows assumes a lot of significance. In case Nifty break and sustain below 10710-10700 leves for some time , then we could see some more weakness towards 10550-10600 levels and break of 10550 levels could push Nifty towards 10300 area which is the final level for this upmove and should hold incase markets are not planning to bring about any material change on the charts.

Sentiments are slowly improving (improving China situation/strong Dow etc) hence if we see weakness in Nifty then one needs to be careful about it. On Horly charts we continue to see some negative divergence which agains could be a cause of worry ( especially if Nifty trades below 10700 levels on Monday).

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 9th Jul 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 10240)

Upmove Maturing?: Nifty traded around 10800 level for most part of the day but gave up all the gains in last hour and broke below 10700 levels. It closed at 10705 levels with a loss of 90 points.

In the previous post we had mentioned "this could be the area ( level around 10850) where we see some pause or consolidation. Markets have run up sharply and are now beginning to enter overbought zone so its not wrong to start expecting some hesitancy at these levels"

Now yesterday and today we saw exactly that and Nifty paused and today even declined slightly exactly from 10850. Now what to expect in next few trading sessions? Going forward unless Nifty makes a sharp move above 10850 levels, we can expect this correction to continue. Now this correction can be sideways or pricewise but that is something we will know in next couple of trading session. If its a sideway correction should finish between 10500-10700 and if its a pricewise correction then we can move towards 10250-10300 levels once again but should not fall beyond that. In case Nifty goes on to test 10250 levels and breaks it then we are looking at major correction and possible trend reversal for medium term.

So if its just a correction then it should complete above 10250 levels moving below 10250 could be bearish and indicative of a larger move on the downside.

Today, intraday charts, Nifty has made an 'bearish engulfing candle' which is a negative sign for short term hence profit booking at these levels is advised. To counter this negative impact, Nifty needs to move sharply above 10850 else for a short term it seems that a top is done today already.

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To see our recent trading calls for Nifty Algo- Pls click ⤇  Past Trade summary ( updated once existing position is closed)

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 7th Jul 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 10225)

Exhibiting Super Strength: Nifty continued its relentless march on the upside and touched 10800 levels today and closed at 10760, up 150 points.

Nifty is moving sharply on the upside, in the last update we had maintained a view that Nifty could touch 10800-11000 levels in the current upmove, well the targets are achieved in just one day.

Now moving forward this could be the area ( level around 10850) where we see some pause or consolidation. Markets have run up sharply and are now beginning to enter overbought zone so its not wrong to start expecting some hesitancy at these levels. However it doesnt mean that one should go and short here, absolutely not. Markets have a tendency to overshoot and undershoot its targets so a move towards 11000 and even above is also possible. But at the same time it does make sense to book some of the profits in the long position. In such situations its always better to keep trailing stoplosses.

 

Looking at charts, in last post we had mentioned levels around 10400-450 for short term SL. Now level around 10600-650 could be used as trailing SL and further weakness in Nifty is possible only if these level breaks till then it wont be wise to expect weakness in Nifty.

Another important change we have done is we have moved the medium term pivot level to 10225 levels. Regular reader of our blog must be aware that last week when markets were falling, we were continuously talking about the important of 10225 level. And even though Nifty broke it intraday, it was always defended on closing basis. Now we feel its a good enough support for medium term and if broken can force the entire trend to 'down'. So be observant and keep a watch on the levels mentioned above.

Happy Trading!

To Join our Nifty algo buy/sell whatsapp message service during market hours, pls click⤇ Nifty Buy/Sell Algorithm  or whatsapp @ 9319321906 

To see our recent trading calls for Nifty Algo- Pls click ⤇  Past Trade summary ( updated once existing position is closed)

Happy Trading