Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 2nd Jul 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 9800)

 11400 crossed: Nifty opened but remained strong and unlike previous days, didn't see any selling pressure from 11400 levels and managed to closed above it with a gain of around 130 points.

In last post we had mentioned that though bias is still negative but the way Nifty is trading around 10200-10400 its possible that all the negative energy is absorbed already in this sideways correction and if 10225 is not broken soon then markets can start moving up again. Time was running out for bears and inspite of spending 4-5 days in corrective move they failed to break below 10200 and when bear fails bulls take over that's the rule.

For a correction to get over, a price wise fall is not always required and some times markets complete correction by moving sideways in a volatile manner. Now there is a possibility that correction that started from 10550 levels got over at 10200 levels and Nifty is ready to make another move around 10500 or higher levels. Nifty has a good resistance around 10475 levels and that could be the last hurdle for bulls and if crossed in next 1-2 trading sessions then we can see higher levels again in Nifty.

Todays close has come above 10400 levels which is pointing towards a strong possibility that bulls are back in game however they need to conquer 10475 levels in coming session and that should clear the way towards 10550-10600 levels. We can see another correction once market reaches 10600+ levels, but that is something we will leave for later.

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 1st Jul 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 9725)

 Rangebound Moves continues: Nifty once again failed to moved above 10400 levels and dragged to 10300 levels.

There was negative energy building in Nifty since last few days and Nifty even dragged itself from 10550 levels to 10200 levels (though defended it on closing basis) and thats the reason we have been sounding a bit cautious since last few days. However the way markets are stuck in tight range and giving rangebound moves between 10200-10400, theres a possibility that this negative energy which was building in Nifty is consumed or absorbed already in this sideway trade.

In Previous post we had mentioned that if 10225 breaks then downward move can gain momentum, Nifty defended this level yesterday and today. Now time is slowly running out for bears. If Nifty continues to consolidate between 10200-10400 then there is a likelihoold of nifty making one more dash towards 10550 -10600 levels.

In nutshell, the downward bias still exists but Nifty now need to make a swift fall below 10200 levels very soon ( next 1-2 trading session).Once we see a quick fall below 10200 -150 levels, the other negative patterns ( wedge/evening star etc mentioned in previous post) will have any significance (till then they are just possibilities).Biding and spending time around 10300 will be indicative of nifty making a base for one more push towards higher level.

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 29th Jun 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 9725)

 Rangebound: Nifty was volatile but strictly traded in a tight range between 10200-10400 in last couple of trading sessions.

In the last post we had mentioned "Holding on to 10225 levels could push Nifty back towards 10500 however break of 10225 could increase the downward momentum and push Nifty all the way to 10K levels once again"

Nifty did test 10200 levels on Thursday (twice) and even though it didn't sustain below it, breaking of 10225 levels intraday has raised some more doubts about Nifty's ability to sustain high levels. Market is looking kind of tired so a corrective/sideways move from here is possible. To negate this, nifty must hold 10225 levels and make a strong bounce above 10550 levels. 10225 is a critical level for short term and shouldn't be tested again and again ( its already tested once and broken intraday last week).

On weekly chart, Nifty has made a 'doji' or 'spinning top' kind of pattern which has come after a strong bullish candle in previous week. Now if we have a strong bearish candle next week then entire pattern could turn into 'evening star'. Evening star is bearish pattern and indicative of top formation. Appearance of 'Evening star' on weekly chart is not very common and could have bearish implications in times to come. However to conclude anything we must see how Nifty trades (and more importantly) and wnere it closes next week.

There are couple of other indicators which are indicating a possible 'pause' here like 200 DEMA - Nifty 200 DEMA is sitting at 10550 levels and Nifty (so far) has failed to cross above it. Also on daily charts if one look at candle of last Wednesday then one will see 'bearish engulfing' candle. Which again is a bearish pattern (and so far nifty has failed to break above it). 

Overall ( as we have posted in previous posts ) the entire rise from 7500 to 10500 is looking like one ascending wedge which seems be in (or already completed) its last leg 'E'. Strong move below 10200 levels could be a strong indication that its indeed a wedge. However having said this, the overall sentiment and participation in the market remains positive and bullish ( all gapdowns/falls are currently being bought into) but we all know that can change in a minute hence one needs to be careful.

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To see our recent trading calls for Nifty Algo- Pls click ⤇  Past Trade summary ( updated once existing position is closed)

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