Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 19th Jun 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 9500)
Nifty Soars : Nifty opened flattish but continued to move up in a strong trend and crossed 10K levels ( even 10100 intraday) to close at 10080 levels up a solid 200 points.

Yesterday we had pointed out many indicators that were pointing out towards a possible downmove from current levels and had advised caution. We had also mentioned that we are seeing warning sign ahead and with each successive failure to cross 10k the chances of markets moving down are increasing. However with todays move, most of the bearish indicators/factors we were seeing have been negated. Frankly speaking, we didn't expect markets to move the way it has and if it manages to cross 10100 & then hold on to 10050-10100 levels for couple of trading sessions then bulls will further strengthen their position.Negative sentiments surrounding India-China border tensions seems to have played a big hand in pulling markets up (shorts positions had been built up in last 2 days which have been squeezed by the smart money/operator).

Having said this, there is a still a slight chance that move today was just a false break of 10K levels, however for that to come true need a vicious fall tomorrow back below 9900 levels. Spending time around 10100 will only make markets stronger and short squeeze is likely to continue.

Going forward if 10100 sustains then markets in most likelihood are heading towards 10330 and 10550 levels. Entire move from 7500 levels is looing like one contracting triangle or ascending wedge which seems to have completed its 4th ( D) leg and last leg (E-leg) most probably started today. Upon completion of E leg we can see a correction again .So probably the correction we were expecting around 10K levels will come from higher levels ( 10330-10550 or higher). But that is a problem for later date, we will cross that bridge when we get there.

In Nutshell, we were seeing a possibility of a downmove which didnt materialise and market has made a strong move above 10K levels which has negated most of bearish possiblities already ( provided it holds above 10K level for couple more sessions atelast). Now that markets have changed, we have to change as well and since markets have moved above 10K levels ,once again the chances of markets hitting a new high towards 10300 and then 10500 have become stronger hence we change our view.

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 18th Jun 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 9500)

Rangebound & volatile : Nifty opened slightly weak but immediately bounced backed above 9900 however once again got stuck at 10k levels and sellers pulled it back below 9900 levels. It closed around 9880 with a minor loss of around 30 points.

Nifty may have closed down with  small losses but point to note is the intraday volatility we are seeing since last few days. Yesterday markets opened super strong 200+ but couldn't held on to its gain and turned -100 ( >300 point fall from day high). Today again markets tried to scale above 10k but Bears pulled it back and as a result it almost lost around 150 points from day high.

Now in previous post we had mentioned "Nifty failed to move above 10k, which was a key requirement and even broke below 9850-9800 levels, this has raised some strong doubts about the sustainability of the recovery we saw on Friday"

We had turned cautious on Monday itself and today we are a bit more cautious then we were before. Though Nifty has not fallen much since Monday, it has not moved up either and looking at charts we continue to advise caution at current levels as with each passing day and with each failure to climb above 10k levels, the chances of Nifty moving down are increasing. Though most of the analyst on TV and youtube are bullish at this moment and predicting 10500 levels in coming few sessions, we are clearly in no hurry to buy Nifty at CMP. Lets see why.

• After Monday, Nifty made two more attempts( yesterday and today) to move above 10k levels but failed both times as a result we can see a 'tripple top' kind of pattern now at 10k levels.  
• On hourly charts, the entire pattern of last 4-5 trading session is looking like one "head and shoulder" pattern with neck line sitting at 9730 levels. which can have bearish implications in coming few sessions if 9730 breaks
• Today Intraday chart, Nifty has made 'inverted hammer' candle which can be both bullish & bearish depending on where it formed, but looking at current chart positioning its looking more of a bearish candle to us.

There are couple of other factors too (cannot be explained here) which are advising caution at current levels. There are warning signs clearly appearing ahead and if 10050-10075 is not crossed with a force, then those might come true as well.

From trading perspective those who are long should keep an tight watch on 9800 levels and if this levels breaks then be on guards. Final level is around 9720-9730 levels ( also the neckline of the H&S pattern) and if that is breached as well then we see no point in holding on the existing long and we recommend exiting.

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 16th Jun 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 9500)

Slides Again: Nifty After a strong recovery on Friday, Nifty once again tumbled to close at 9810 levels with a loss of 160 points.

Fridays sharp recovery had rekindled the hope of bulls making a strong pull back however todays weekness has once again put clouds over the short term trend. Today Nifty has made a close below 9850 ( previous swing low) which is not a positive sign.

In the last update we were reasonably optimistic however things have changed slightly today. We had mentioned in previous post that- "undertone of the markets remains strong and there is a likelihood that Nifty start moving up towards 10300-10500 again. We do not have confirmations on the charts but there are indications. Follow up buying above 10000-10050 levels on Monday will be very positive for the markets"

Nifty failed to move above 10k, which was a key requirement and even broke below 9850-9800 levels, this has raised some strong doubts about the sustainability of the recovery we saw on Friday. Further weakness below 9750-9850 levels could once again push markets towards the lows of 9500. 

In Nutshell, todays fall has come against the run of play and is not a good sign for the bulls. Markets needs to make a swift recovery above 9900-9950 levels to repair the damage inflicted by bears today. On the other hand, constant weakness around current levels (and if markets sustains below 9800-9750 levels for too long) could push Nifty back towards 9500-9550 levels ( Fridays low) and a break of these levels could be extremely bearish and put additional selling pressure on the markets hence be cautious.

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 15th Jun 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 9500)

Sharp Recovery: Nifty opened with a huge gap-down today around 9550 levels but staged a remarkable recovery to close in green at 9970. Up 70 points.

Dow crashed big time yesterday and as a result Nifty opened with a whopping 300+ gap down today. Many traders took todays fall as the resumption of down trend believing that pullback got completed at 10300 levels and Nifty now has resumed its fall towards lower levels.

However we had mentioned yesterday "A fall from 10300 towards 10K was expected and it has come now, now probably the most of the correction is done at these levels and markets could try and make some sort of recovery"  we had also mentioned that "further weakness below this could be indicative of some pattern changes hence needs to be observed carefully".

Today markets did break below 9850-9900 but it was only temporary and intraday. At closing levels markets have managed to crawl back above 9900 levels. Even in the morning session the lows hits were around 9500 levels which is the final support level and last line of  defence for this intermediary upmove. In any case the last support level was held and Nifty moved back above 9900 levels hence nothing changes for now.

Also since last 7-8 days todays is the first day where Nifty has managed to closed strongly above its opening high. All these factors are suggesting that undertone of the markets remains strong and there is a likelihood that Nifty start moving up towards 10300-10500 again. We do not have confirmations on the charts but there are indications. Follow up buying above 10000-10050 levels on Monday will be very positive for the markets.

In Nutshell, Nifty has defended crucial area of 9850-9900 levels on closing basis and that raises the possibility of nifty moving back towards 10300-10500 in coming trading sessions. On the downside, bears needs to make a strong push below 9800 and then 9700 for the down move to gather momentum again else Bulls are likely to seize initiative soon.

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 12th Jun 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 9500)

Slide Continues:Nifty continue to fall and even broke below 9900 levels momentarily today to close at 9902 , down 210 points.

In the previous post(s) we had highlighted that since last few days Nifty is not able to sustain its opening highs and is continuously moving down. Well the same trend continues even now and market continues to move down. We had also mentioned that "levels around 9990 and 9910 becomes very important. Incase market continue to fall then levels around 10K and below 9k will become critical from short term perspective."

Now today we tested 10k today, broke below it and touched 9k levels and closed there too. Now levels around 9900 should be the bottom levels for short term perspective and we should not be seeing much more weeknes from these levels (unless something else is changing on the charts from medium term perspective). Levels around 9850-9900 was the previous swing high and we expect some sort of support here so these should ideally hold. However if we see continuous weakness below todays low and 9850 levels then it could mean that something else is cooking.

A fall from 10300 towards 10K was expected and it has come now, now probably the most of the correction is done at these levels and markets could try and make some sort of recovery however further weakness below this could be indicative of some pattern changes hence needs to be observed carefully. Dow future is trading 600 points down ( as we update this post) and probably is the reason for  weakness in the markets today.

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