Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 13th Feb 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 11750)

Nifty Marches Ahead: Nifty opened above 12170 levels and  went on to cross 12200 with ease. It threatened to break below 12200 for some time but eventually settled at 12200 up 90 points.

Now that Nifty has successfully closed above 12175 levels and the way charts and other indicators are pointing, we can safely conclude that overall trend has changed to back up again.

Nifty had seen a huge fall of 500+ points (leading upto the budget & on budget day) previously prompting us to change the term to 'down'. There was a strong possibility that Nifty could revisit the lows of 11600 or lower and then only resume the uptrend however ultimately the price is the king and if charts are suggesting that the fall to 11600 was just a pull back ( and not a trend down) then we have to believe it. By closing above 12175 levels today, nifty has negated the bearish implication of most of the negative candles it made previously.

Now going forward, its likely that current rally will continue, ofcourse intermittent 100-200 pullbacks will keep on coming but the overall trend should remain on the upside. We expect market to have a strong support in the12100-12150 zone now (old resistance become support).

Another interesting development on the intraday chart is that the entire move of last few days ie., the fall to 11600 levels and now the pullback back to 12200 levels is looking like a 'inverted head & shoulder patterns'. Neckline of this pattern is also sitting at 12170 levels ( which also coincides with our trend reversal level).

In Nutshell, the overall trend of the market has turned back to bullish now and the trading strategy going forward should be to 'buy on dips' rather than to 'sell on rise'. Yes we were expecting markets to remain weak for some more time and test 11600 or lower levels and yes it didnt materialise. Our ultimate goal is to be in sync with market and to remain in line with market and since charts have changed we should change as well. From trading perspective, the band of 12100-12150 should offer good support now and if Nifty start closing below this range again then it will be the time to be cautious again.

Happy Trading!! 

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 11th Feb 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↓Down (Changes to up above 12175)

Nifty Turns Cautious: Nifty opened weak today around 12050 levels and went on to test 12K levels quite a few times intraday. It finally closed at 12030 levels down 70 points.

In last few updates we have been mentioning that Nifty has good resistance in 12100 zone and inspite of a strong rally of 500+ points from the lows of 11600 levels we maintained the trend as 'down' only ( revised the reversal level to 12100 and then finally to 12175).

Today we did see some weakness in Nifty and one stage market was down 100+ points however followup buying at lower levels prevented any major fall and market closed with just a small loss of 65 odd points. Like we have been saying, the bounce which has come form 11600 levels is a 'V' shaped recovery and there is a chance that this V shaped recoveries is driven by sentiments and greed rather than actual buying. Sentiments and greed can pull markets till at a point only after that the upmove can be stretched further only by real buying and we are yet to observe if real or followup buying is indeed emerging at these levels.

In last 2 days we have seen a fall of about 150+ points and last Friday Nifty had made a 'bearish belt hold patter' which we suggested was a bearish pattern provided we see followup selling below the low point of the day. Today we saw exactly that, Nifty opened below fridays low and whole day traded below that only.This again can have some more negative implications gong forward.

Going forward, for positive scenario to emerge, Nifty should defend 11850-11950 range. If nifty can consolidate and create a support zone around 11900 levels then we expect it to touch higher levels ( 12500) once again. However in case we see more weakness from here and Nifty goes on to break levels as mentioned above, then we can see a retest of old lows @ 11600.

In summary, inspite of a 500+ rally in last few days market is not out of the woods completely there is still a possibility of Nifty retesting 11600 levels. For a positive scenario to emerge market must protect 11850 levels and then break above 12175 levels to resume uptrend.

Happy Trading!! 

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers during live trading hours through regular whatsapp updates. To join us please click the below link/button or mail to rahulrtn412@yahoo.com or whatsapp:9319321906 (Pls don't call or send text for mkt view/opinion as we will not be able to respond to such msgs)

Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 10th Feb 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↓Down (Changes to up above 12175)

Range Bound Trade: Nifty opened around 12050 levels todays however dropped below 12100 subsequently and closed at just below 12100 down 30 odd points.

Yesterday we had mentioned that though Nifty has closed above 12100 levels ( which was our reversal level), we would like to see one more close above 12100 to seek a confirmation of its decisive break. Today Nifty failed to close above 12100 hence the near term trend remains down for now. Now looking at charts we have further revised the reversal level to 12175 ( just a tad above todays high).

Yesterday we had mentioned a possibility of Nifty forming a bearish 'evening star' pattern however Nifty needed a strong fall below 12K levels to confirm the pattern (which didnt happen) so we need to see if Nifty can protect 11980-12K levels on Monday as well. Looking at todays candle stick pattern, Nifty has formed a 'bearish belt hold' pattern. In such patterns the opening price becomes the day high and market is not able to cross it in entire days trading. Needless to say that this is again a bearish pattern (provided we see a followup selling below the low point of the day).

Now even though markets have failed to cross above 12100 the fall we have seen from 12150 is not inspiring much confidence for bears. It looks like markets are trying to consolidate for a next move on the upside, however it will be too early to comment and we need to see how market trades in next 2-3 trading sessions. In case market trades lack lustre and manages to protect itself from a deep cut then probably the bottom is done at 11630 levels But in case we do see some sharp cuts in next 2-3 sessions then there is chance that we could be testing the recent lows again.

Another thing which goes in markets favour is that its pretty light at the moment. The OI in Nifty futures is not very huge so that will definitely protect markets from falling big but again that doesnt means that we cannot fall 700-800 points from here.

In summary, markets are finding resistance in 12100-12150 zone and we see another move above these levels then probably the trend will change to 'up' again however if we do see a sharp move on the downside ( which remains a possibility till now) then the chances of retesting recent lows ( or even lower) will become strong again.

Happy Trading!! 

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers during live trading hours through regular whatsapp updates. To join us please click the below link/button or mail to rahulrtn412@yahoo.com or whatsapp:9319321906 (Pls don't call or send text for mkt view/opinion as we will not be able to respond to such msgs)

Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 7th Feb 2020

Medium Term Trend:  ↓Down (Changes to up above 12100)

Bounce Back Continues: Nifty continue to move on the upside and even tested 12150 levels today. It closed at 12135 (up 50 points).

We had changed the medium term trend to down and the reversal level was pegged at 12100. We have had one closing above 12100 levels already, needs to see if Nifty can close above 12100 again tomorrow as well and if that happens then probably the near term trend has changed to up as well. Hence for now we are holding the trend as down only.

Nifty has put on almost 500 points in last 5 days ( one can argue that as much points were lost too in similar time) and that is suggesting that buyers are ready and buying at every opportunity possible. Usually after a big fall, we dont like to see a V shaped recovery but prefer to see some sort of grinding and sideways movements as sometimes the V shaped recoveries are often fuelled by sentiments and greed rather than genuine buying.

Now today Nifty has made an doji like candle and the movement of last 3-4 days is appearing like a 'evening star' pattern on intraday charts. Evening star pattern is a bearish pattern however the confirmation for this pattern will come only if Nifty breaks below 12K level in next 1-2 trading sessions.

In Nutshell, though markets are looking strong they are also turning overbought and the pattern on intraday chart is looking like a possible 'evening star' hence some bit of caution is warranted at these levels. If market continues to move up and make a close above 12100-12150 tomorrow as well then there is very little will be left for the support of bulls. However till that happens, there is a chance that a strong move down is also witnessed in next 1-2 trading sessions

Happy Trading!! 

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers during live trading hours through regular whatsapp updates. To join us please click the below link/button or mail to rahulrtn412@yahoo.com or whatsapp:9319321906 (Pls don't call or send text for mkt view/opinion as we will not be able to respond to such msgs)

Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 5th Feb 2020

Medium Term Trend:  ↓Down (Changes to up above 12100)

Bounces Back: Nifty Bounced back smartly nearly recovering entire fall of the budget day. It opened strong above 11800 and kept on moving up. It finally closed at 11980 levels.

Yesterday we had changed the market trend to 'down' and had put the reversal level at 11975 levels, however considering the volatility and sharp moves we have adjusted it slightly and shifted it to 12100 levels.

We expect strong resistance in the 11950-12050 zone.

Further we had also mentioned that usually after a big fall we dont see V shaped recovery and in case it (sharp recovery) comes then there are chances that it wont be able to sustain. For markets to sustain higher levels its important that it consolidate and grinds first and then only start moving up its way up ( make some sort of a base before moving up).

Now what we have seen today is a clear V shaped recovery and we are not sure if markets have made any sort of base yet. Ideally speaking we would have liked to see some sort of consolidation before this bounce. Now since that didnt materialise, there is always a risk about sustainability of this upmove and it will be interesting to see if market manages to hold on to its gain and tries to move further up from here.

In our view, Inspite of a 250+ rally today the overall trend still remains down, the damage done during budget time was a big one and market needs little bit more time to heal itself.Right now it seems markets are trying to move without giving itself a chance to stabilize first and in such scenarios risk of falling back always remains.

In Nutshell, one should not get too excited seeing this pullback and as long as 12050-12100 is not conquered, there is always a risk of markets falling back to the recent lows (11600 levels) and one needs to keep that in mind. However in case market sustains these levels and goes on to cross 12100 in coming 1-2 trading sessions then probably something else is going on and we will have to reanalyze things but for now chances of market giving correction ( timewise and pricewise) remains.

Happy Trading!! 

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers during live trading hours through regular whatsapp updates. To join us please click the below link/button or mail to rahulrtn412@yahoo.com or whatsapp:9319321906 (Pls don't call or send text for mkt view/opinion as we will not be able to respond to such msgs)

Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 4th Feb 2020

Medium Term Trend:  ↓Down (Changes to up above 11975)

Weakness to the fore: Nifty witnessed a massive slide on Saturday and dropped 300 points to close at 11660 levels. It gave a small bounce today from the oversold territory and Nifty managed to close just above 11700 levels.

Last 3-4 days have been brutal for the bulls and bears have absolutely ruled the markets. Nifty even broke the 11800-11770 levels and closing of last 2 days has come well below this level forcing us to change our overall trend to 'Down'. We had been bullish on Nifty for quite some time (right from 10600 levels) and were expecting Nifty to hold on to 11850-11900 levels. However market has not respected these levels & that means the overall pattern has changed now from bullish to bearish. The upmove which started from 10600 odd levels seems to have finished now and market may spend some more time in 11500 territory before resuming the uptrend. 

As per our analysis there is no point in holding on to long positions now or in bottom fishing expecting a bounce back ( a bounce of 100-150 points can come any moment) but it needs to be seen if market is able to sustain those bounce. as a trader one must move in tandem with the markets and the strategy should change from 'buying on dips' to 'sell on rise'. No positional buy should be initiated till the time price confirmation is visible on the charts.

Whenever market falls big it usually doesnt give a 'V' shape recovery but spend some time consolidating and correcting a bit more.The upmove which comes after consolidation is generally the move which is sustained. If market start moving immediately from these levels then there is a chance that it wont be able to sustain ( as selling is likely to emerge again at higher levels). There are quite a few traders who are stuck in long positions and expecting markets to move up again in next few days and till the time all pre budget longs are not squared off, markets may not move much on the upside.

Having said this, the overall OI in nifty future is still pretty low and markets are not top heavy so a big fall from these levels is highly unlikely but choppiness and sharp movement on both sides is totally possible so keep that in mind.

In Nutshell, the upmove which started from 10600 odd levels seems to have finished now and market has gone into a corrective/bear trend from near term perspective. Though intermittent bounces are possible, they are unlikely to be sustained and market needs to spend some time at these levels (It might even fall a bit more from here). We can expect the resumption of uptrend only when the correction gets over and for the overall health of the markets it will be good if markets grinds and spend some more time ( 2-3 weeks) in consolidation mode so that remaning longs are frustrated and forced to square off. An upmove which follows after such a conslidation will be sustainable and a strong one. 

Happy Trading!! 

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers during live trading hours through regular whatsapp updates. To join us please click the below link/button or mail to rahulrtn412@yahoo.com or whatsapp:9319321906 (Pls don't call or send text for mkt view/opinion as we will not be able to respond to such msgs)