Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 21st Jan 2020

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11770)

Nifty sees a breakdown: Nifty opened strong today above 12400+ but immediately drifted down and kept on slipping throughout the day. it closed with a substantial loss of 125+ points at 12225. Today Nifty has posted a 'bearish engulfing candle' on daily charts (which is a bearish pattern).

In the previous post we had clearly warned and mentioned:- 

"it needs a strong move above 12400-425 levels. In the recent times nifty has seen a steady rise from 11900 levels to 12400 so its very much possible that we see some sort of correction in next 1-2 days"

Now thats (again) exactly how the market played out immediately and Nifty gave up more than 200 points from the day high today and broken below 12300 levels. We had also mentioned (in previous posts) that 12300 is a good support but the way markets have bounced back from 12300 is not exuding confidence about the sustainability of the bounce and that market is exhibiting tiredness and lethargy at 12350+ levels which could result in markets giving correction(price wise or timewise) in near term.

Now that we have seen a sharp fall from 12400 levels to sub 12250 levels, we can safely say that the upmove for  extremely short term has ended and a correction has started. Please keep in mind that overall trend of the market remains up however for extremely short term , the bounce which began from 11900 levels ( last 8-9 days) seems to be over. Now this correction might last few days or it can get over pretty soon hence its very important to observe markets to see how the correction is developing. If the fall continues to be intense then it can fall towards 12050-12100 levels but shouldn't fall much below these levels. Break of this level could put serious question mark on the overall trend of the market so in likelihood it should hold.

For now we need to see if 12050-12200 level is holding up. If it does then probably the corrective move will be over in few trading sessions and a fresh move on the upside could be expected to start again but if its broken in next 2-3 trading sessions then probably we could see a retest of recent lows of 11900. Bears for now are back in game and next couple of days will decide if they hold their fort and make their position stronger.Ideal strategy would be to wait for this correction to get over and enter only when charts shows that correction is over and fresh upmove has started.

Happy Trading!

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 20th Jan 2020

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11770)

Lacklustre trade continues: Nifty saw another day where it did absolutely nothing. Opened flat, traded flat and closed flat.

In the last post we had mentioned:-: "the way markets are trading since last couple of days is suggesting that probably some bit of tiredness or lethargy is creeping in the markets". Well the tiredness continues even today and market showed that its in no mood to move (up or down). 

So for now the same view stands, Nifty has more or less achieved our immediate targets but that doesn't mean it can not move further up from here , it definitely can but for that to happen it needs a strong move above 12400-425 levels. In the recent times nifty has seen a steady rise from 11900 levels to 12400 ( almost 500 points move in last 7 days) so its very much possible that we see some sort of correction in next -12 days.

On technicals charts Nifty is giving some bit of negative divergence and on weekly charts its approaching overbought zone. Its nearing 70 and the last time it touched 70 was way back in June'19 around election time.  However that doesn't mean that one start shorting Nifty, absolutely not. All it means is that if correction comes then one should be ready it ( after all it can turn into a great buying option once again). On the downside 12300-250 will continue to provide support and it remains to be seen if it holds should the markets decide to test it again.

The most important indicator is still very much in bullish zone and till the time it reverses it would not be wise to bet on short side and that indicator is "price". Nifty is still very strong on price charts and till that reverses one has to assume that the uptrend is intact. Its only when we see reversal on price charts, should we start looking towards other side ( and for now its far far away).

So to summarize, let Nifty break 12275-12425 zone , How nifty trades beyond this zone will determine the near term outlook of the Nifty. as a trader its advisable to sit out till this zone is played out by the markets.

Happy Trading!

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers during live trading hours through regular whatsapp updates. To join us please click the below link/button or mail to rahulrtn412@yahoo.com or whatsapp:9319321906 (Pls domt call or send text for mkt view/opinion will not be able to respond to such msgs)

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 17th Jan 2020

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11770)

Rangebound: Nifty closed flat today. It opened around 12350 levels and moved in a tight range of about 50 points.

In last update we had mentioned :

"Nifty has given 2 consecutive close above the 12300 levels so we now can safely assume that market has good support in 12250-12300 zone. Going forward whenever we see a correction it will be interesting to see if it takes support at 12250-12300 zone"

Yesterday, Nifty fell towards 12275 levels and bounced from there which proves our point that support exists at 12300 levels. Having said this, even though the market has bounced from 12275 levels, the move is not appearing very strong as of now. Today markets hit a new high of 12390 levels but the way markets are trading since last couple of days is suggesting that probably some bit of tiredness or lethargy is creeping in the markets. Ideally we would have liked to see a stronger bounce from 12300 levels.

Next couple of trading sessions could be interesting and we need to see if 12300-12250 is tested again (Ideally speaking the important support level should not be tested very often). We need to be vigilant and see if 12300 is holding or not, if this level breaks then probably we can see some more weakness in short term. But please note that overall trend of the market still remains bullish and if do see some weakness then most likely it will just be a  pullback. On the other hand if market makes a strong move above 12400 levels in next 1-2 trading sessions than we can expect some more upside in near term.

In Nutshell, if 12300 breaks then some more weakness (timewise or pricewise) is likely whereas a strong move above 12400 levels could result in some more upside. Market trend (for now) remains up so keep that in mind.

Happy Trading!
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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 15th Jan 2020

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11770)

Exhibiting Strength: Nifty Continue to move up and continue to surprise everyone. It opened flat around 12330 levels and after griding at this level for most part of the day it made a small jump and closed above 12360 levels and added 30 odd points.

Like we have been saying for past many days that the trend of the market remains up and one should only lookout for trading opportunities on the long side in this market. All dips should be utilised to enter long positions and not for shorting. The same view stands even now. Market still remains bullish ( though short term charts are suggesting a bit of overbought status) & its likely that we will keep seeing intermittent pull backs of 100-150 points but overall the market will continue to march higher.

Now from near term perspective, 12300 was a strong resistance for the markets and the same has now been successfully conquered. Nifty has given 2 consecutive close above the 12300 levels so we now can safely assume that market has good support in 12250-12300 zone. Going forward whenever we see a correction it will be interesting to see if it takes support at 12250-12300 zone. Only once Nifty break below this range and sustain should we start looking things from a different perspective and if this range holds then higher levels towards above 12400-12500 are very much likely in near term.

In Nutshell, if 12250 -12300 holds then markets are heading towards higher level and if any pullback ( whether it starts from current levels or from  higher levels) breaks this range then probably we can see a temp pause in the current rally. Bears to regain control must break below 12250 and they should do it fast else bulls will run away ( like they have been).

Happy Trading!

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers during live trading hours through regular whatsapp updates. To join us please click the below link/button or mail to rahulrtn412@yahoo.com or whatsapp:9319321906 

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