Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 6th Jan 2020

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11770)

Global Crisis Pushes Nifty: Market opened in negative territory  (around 12230) due to geo-political tensions and sudden jump in crude oil prices. It even dropped below 12200 intraday but recovered just below the end to close at 12230 levels. Down 50 odd points.

In the last update we had mentioned that its likely that markets are still in correction/sideways mode and since then markets are broadly trading in 12150-12300 (150 point range) confirming the same.

Today, inspite of plethora of bad news (Geo-political tensions etc) Nifty failed to break this range which is indicative of the fact that maket is still is in sideways/corrective mode. However  our analysis and chart reading is now suggesting that corrective/sideways trend is now over/likely to be over soon and Nifty is likely to move in a trend and the chances are that the move will be on upside.

I know many will raise serious doubt over our analysis (some could even find the idea of markets moving up from here laughable) specially considering the various things plaguing the markets right now but when we anlayse markets we have to see beyond the obvious and trust only 'price' and 'charts'. As of today prices and charts are suggesting that its likely that market has hit some kind of low already. To confirm this we need markets to protect 12160-12190 for next couple of trading sessions and then move above 12300.If that happens then there is a very strong (>80%) of markets moving up from here.

In Nutshell, keep an eye of 12150-12190 range if Nifty fails to break these levels in next couple of trading sessions then one more push on the upside is likely. However if it does break (even though the chances are less) then we will have to reanlyse and see things from a fresh perspective.


Happy Trading!

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook for 01st Jan 2020

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11770)

Slips Below 12200: Nifty opened in negative territory and after spending most part of the day around 12200 levels, it fnally broke it towards the end and touched 12150 levels. It closed at 12170 , down 85 points.

On expiry day, Nifty had crashed to around 12100 levels and the very next day it bounced back. However the move from 12300 to 12100 levels ( last week) had taken 3 days, now another 3 days have passed since but markets have failed to hit a new high above 12300 (100% of the fall is not retraced), Which raises the question if market still remain in corrective/sideways mode.

Manner in which Nifty had risen post expiry had given an impression that correction is over and markets are ready to make a new high but today once it broke below 12200, it became clear that markets (may be) wants to spend some more time in 'correction mode'. Now correction mode can be a move down from here or a sideways trade.

Needless to say that we continue to believe that markets are in a bull trend and so far nothing is there on the charts which is suggesting otherwise. 12100 should act as a good support (since it was the previous high) and below that 11950-12K should act as a major support. Till the time markets are trading above 11950 levels, we do not recommend going short as the uptrend can resume anytime and without warning. Only below 11950 ( that too if its taken out swiftly) can one think of a quick short entry.On the upside  12275 remains a key hurdle for now and if markets manages to move above 12275 then higher levels towards 12400-600 can be seen.


Wish all our readers a Very Happy New Year and Happy Trading!

Nifty trade details (chat excerpts) from 12th Dec to 23 Dec

Below is the chat excerpts/Trade recommendation we have shared in last few days (12-23 Dec) with our clients.

12/12/2019, 09:16 - NiftyTrend: Gm, nifty 11940. Will add long positions in a short while.
12/12/2019, 09:17 - NiftyTrend: B on alert pls
12/12/2019, 09:45 - NiftyTrend: *nifty 11966 buy 2 parts*
12/12/2019, 10:18 - NiftyTrend: *nifty 11948 buy 2 more parts*
12/12/2019, 10:19 - NiftyTrend: Hold all 4 parts long
12/12/2019, 10:54 - NiftyTrend: *conf* : Long position we exited around 11970 levels few days back, have been reentered again at almost same price of 11956 today
12/12/2019, 14:52 - NiftyTrend: Nifty @12k. Continue holding all long positions
12/12/2019, 15:12 - NiftyTrend: Carry all longs for tomorrow
13/12/2019, 09:22 - NiftyTrend: GM.Nifty 12030 hold all long positions.
13/12/2019, 10:14 - NiftyTrend: *nifty 12057 book profit 2 parts*13/12/2019, 10:15 - NiftyTrend: Keep holding balance 2 parts long
13/12/2019, 10:16 - NiftyTrend: Conf: 2 parts profit booked, balance 2 parts still holding
13/12/2019, 15:08 - NiftyTrend: Nifty 12095. Carry bal longs for tomorrow
16/12/2019, 09:16 - NiftyTrend: Gm nifty, 12115.
16/12/2019, 09:16 - NiftyTrend: Keep holding bal 2 parts long
16/12/2019, 09:18 - NiftyTrend: *sell 12000 dec pe @ cmp 52*16/12/2019, 09:51 - NiftyTrend: *sell/add  more 12000 dec pe @cmp 59*
16/12/2019, 09:52 - NiftyTrend: We hold all longs with a SL of around 12k now (2 parts nifty + 12000 pe short side)
16/12/2019, 15:42 - NiftyTrend: Closed at 12050. We carry all longs as told
17/12/2019, 09:16 - NiftyTrend: Good morning. Nifty 12080
17/12/2019, 09:16 - NiftyTrend: Continue holding all longs as advised
17/12/2019, 09:45 - NiftyTrend: Nifty 12110. 12k pe @ 40. Less risky traders can do some part profit booking in 12k pe. Others continue to hold all long
17/12/2019, 12:46 - NiftyTrend: Nifty 100 points up.
17/12/2019, 12:46 - NiftyTrend: *book 50% profit in 12000 pe @cmp 33.5*
17/12/2019, 12:48 - NiftyTrend: Hold balance longs (2 parts nifty future and bal 12k PE)
17/12/2019, 15:05 - NiftyTrend: Nifty 12158. Closing at a new all time high. Trade. Continues to move in line with our expectations so carry balance longs for tomorrow.
17/12/2019, 19:27 - NiftyTrend: <Media omitted>
17/12/2019, 19:29 - NiftyTrend: Nifty has retraced last 9 days fall in arnd 5 days. Classic confirmation that its indeed a strong bull trend. Dont let others (especially analysts on tv and media) tell you otherwise..
18/12/2019, 09:16 - NiftyTrend: Gm. Nifty 12175. Continue holding balance longs
18/12/2019, 13:20 - NiftyTrend: Nifty up 50 points 12210. Keep holding bal long positions (we hold longs with a sl of around 12080 now)
18/12/2019, 15:24 - NiftyTrend: Nifty 12230. Up 70 points. Carry all long position for tomorrow
19/12/2019, 09:16 - NiftyTrend: Gm. Nifty 12175
19/12/2019, 09:17 - NiftyTrend: Nothing to be done for now, just keep holding al longs
19/12/2019, 12:38 - NiftyTrend: Nifty 12260. Continue holding al bal long positions.
19/12/2019, 15:24 - NiftyTrend: Carry positional longs (bal) for tomorrow.
20/12/2019, 09:23 - NiftyTrend: GM. Nifty 12290.
20/12/2019, 09:23 - NiftyTrend: Continue holding all bal longs
20/12/2019, 15:10 - NiftyTrend: Nifty 11272. Carry all longs for next week. We hold with a sl of around 12210 now. Less risky traders can book some more partial profits at thes levels.
23/12/2019, 09:23 - NiftyTrend: Gm nifty 12280. Continue with long positions
23/12/2019, 13:17 - NiftyTrend: *book 100% profit in 12000 pe @cmp 4.5*23/12/2019, 13:19 - NiftyTrend: Hold bal nifty futures. Mkt trading around 12250. Will exit if nifty breaks 12225 levels
23/12/2019, 14:48 - NiftyTrend: *nifty 12225. Book profit bal 2 parts*23/12/2019, 14:48 - NiftyTrend: All long position exited. No open position now.
23/12/2019, 14:48 - NiftyTrend: Wait for next trade.

We keep guiding and advising our susbcribers during live trading hours thjrough regular whatsapp updates. To join us please follow the below link or mail to rahulrtn412@yahoo.com or whatsapp:9319321906 

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook for 27th Dec 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11770)

Expiry Cracks: Nifty saw a steady fall today and it dropped below 12200.and closed at 12125 levels. Down 90 odd points.

We have been saying since last couple of updates that we can see some sort of correction from 12300 levels and we even recommneded unwinding/exiting of long position if 12220-12200 level failed to hold. Today Nifty broke below this range and dropped further 100 points from there.If someone says that technical analysis doesnt work then this should come as an eyeopener to him. It cant get any clearer and accurate than this.

Having said this, (like we have been mentioning) the overall uptrend remains intact for now hence one should not try and short this market as the main trend can resume anytime and trap traders with short position. Till now there is nothing on charts which is suggesting that uptrend has finished and new trend on the downtrend has begun. In all likelihood what we are witnessing is just some sort of correction and nifty should resume its main trend once this correction is over. Still one should wait for this correction to be over and go long only when there is price confirmation on the charts.

Technically speaking 12K level assumes lot of significance now. Ideally we wouldnt like to see a break of 12K levelsand if Nifty does drop towards 12K level and then start moving up then it could be an excellent buying opportunity but it all depends how nifty trades in next few session. Its likely that Nifty reverses from 12100 levels itself. 12101 was the old resistance level so ideally should offer good amount of support.

In Nutshell, 12100 should offer some support and below that 12K level is a very important level to watch out for.In all probability it should hold ( we should wait and watch) If Nifty goes on to break 12K then bear will be back in the game and chances of Nifty dropping down all the way to 11800 levels will increase too. Those who have booked long positions around 12250-300 levels , should sit tight and wait and watch for sometime.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Technical Analysis: Outlook for 26th Dec 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11770)

Profit Booking: Nifty today opened flat & failed to take out 12300 and dropped towards 12200 levels. It made a day low of  12202 & closed at 12215 down 50 points.

Yesterday we had clearly mentioned that the way Nifty is trading around these levels, its possible that we might see some weakness from these levels. Below is the excerpt from yesterdays update.

"Now that we have spent 2 days near 12300 levels (and the the way markets fell towards 12220 levels) is raising the possibility that probably the upwswing is maturing.Nifty today made a shooting star/hanging man kind of pattern which is also suggesting a probable correction/sideways movement from these levels"

Today nifty failed to move above 12300 and as a result dropped towards 12200 ( which is the lower end of this trading range). Now going forward, further weakness from these levels could push a bit more lower from here. Nifty needs to make a strong close above 12300 levels to put itself firmly back again on upward trajectory, till that happens we can see some bit of sidway correction/dowmoves.

Till now there is no sign that Nifty is heading towards some sort of trend reversal ( but if does then we will accordingly update) and the chances are that market can turn up anytime.

In Nutshell, overall its same as yesterday and since markets have closed in 12200-12220 range, a break of this range could push nifty slightly more but the overall trend remains up so shorts are not advised. markets can reverse anytime and the reversal could be sharp , trapping unsuspecting shorts.Profit booking is advised at current levels and fresh long positions are advised only once the current correction phase is over.

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Happy Trading

Nifty Technical Analysis: Outlook for 24th Dec 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11770)

Upswing maturing??: Nifty opened flattish around 11300 levels and dropped to 11220 levels intraday. It moved up again towards the close of play at 11280 levels and closed at 11270 (flat).

We have been saying since last few days that overall trend of the nifty remains up and 12300 was our immediate target ( which was achieved last week). We had also mentioned that we need to observe how Nifty trades around 12300 leves to see which way market may go.We also mentioned a possibility of Nifty touchung 12500 levels if strength above 12300 was maintained.

Now that we have spent 2 days near 12300 levels (and the the way markets fell towards 12220 levels) is raising the possibility that probably the upwswing is maturing.Nifty today made a shootting star/hanging man kind of pattern which is also suggesting a probable correction/sidway movement from these levels. To counter this negative scenario, nifty must make a strong push above 12300 levels , more time Nifty spend below 12300 levels , more the chances of weakness creeping in.

Having said this, we continue to maintain that overall trend of Nifty remains up so one shouldnt try to short this market but if one is long then its time to be cautious. If nifty fails to cross 12300-320 levels and goes on to break below 12200 levels then it makes sense to book profit and wait for some time ( again sayiing no short below 12200). When markets are in a bull run then one should only trade in longs. Either stay long or book profits and then wait for next opportunity to go long ( till the time trend reverses).

To Join our subscription and for regular whatsapp updates during live trading hours  pls follow below link /drop an email to rahulrtn412@yahoo.com or whatsapp @ 9319321906 (wtsapp only, no calls pls)

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Happy Trading

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 23rd Dec 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11770)

NIfty Continues its March: Nifty opened at par and traded in a narrow range today and traded between 12250-12300. It closed flat at 12270 levels.

Nifty has been showing strength since last 7-8 days and everyday hitting new high. It has now touched 12300 levels ( which we have been saying all these while). Overall though the markets have touched the upper level targets , there is nothing on the chart which is suggesting a trend reversal for now. ofcourse we can see some weakness/sell off/profit booking as markets are trading at all time highs but its likely that it would just be a temp correction and nifty will again resume the uptrend once its over.

Now the correction can come from 12300 or its possible that nifty moves up till 12500 ( its a strong possibility too) and then only start correcting but the point is if one is in long positions then he should continue with it. From a short time perspective 12200-12180 & below that 12010-11965 levels assumes a lot of significance. if Nifty break below 12200 then there is a chance of falling till 12K levels. Below 12K we can  go all the way down to 11700-750 levels. Overall trend of Nifty chances only once 11700 breaks ( Short positions should be initiated below 11700 only)

In Nutshell, the overall trend of the market still remains up and one should not go short at these levels hoping for a 100-200 point correction ( that correction can come anytime no doubt about it) but instead wait for correction to come and then go long only once the price confirmations comes on charts.Existing long positions can be held with a trailing SL of around 12200 levels.For now one should held on to its long position ( with a wait and watch approach).

Happy Trading.