Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 03rd Dec 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11500)

Slipped from All Time Highs: Nifty opened strong at 12135 levels but quikcly droppped below 12100 levels. It made several attempts to reclaim 12100 but failed and closed flat at 12050 levels.

Market continue to move broadly in line with our prediction and on expected lines. In previous post we had mentoned:

 "the chances of reclaiming 12100 are pretty high. Its likely that Nifty can test 12200-12300 levels however from the technical perspective there is a strong chance of Nifty begining another round of correction which might bring it again towards 11900-12K levels"

Now this is exactly how markets played out last week. Nifty broke above 12100 and touched 12150 and then made a U turn and touched 12K levels again. Point to note is that market has not really broken down inspite of the bad GDP numbers which suggests that overall trend remains on the upside however inspite of that there is a likelyhood of market slipping further towards 11850-11900 levels from here. If 11850 is broken then we are looking at 11700 levels.

On the upside if 12035 is reclaimed then we can expect another shot at 12200-12250 levels. 

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Below is the chat excerpts/Trade recommendation we have shared in last few days with our clients.

15/11/2019, 10:15 -  *nifty 11928 buy 2 parts*
15/11/2019, 14:11 -  *nifty 11950 buy 2 more parts*
15/11/2019, 14:12 -  Hold all long position (4 parts)
15/11/2019, 15:20 -  Nifty 11890. Some sharp swing however doesn't matter for now
15/11/2019, 15:20 -  Carry all 4 parts long for next week
18/11/2019, 09:17 -  GM. Nifty 11930. Continue holding all longs
18/11/2019, 15:14 -  Nifty 11885. Nothing to be done for now. Carry longs for tomorrow
19/11/2019, 09:16 -  Gm. Nifty 30+ @11915. Continue holding longs
19/11/2019, 15:19 -  Nifty 11947. Carry all longs for tomorrow.

20/11/2019, 10:14 -  Nifty 12015 *Book profit 2 parts* continue holding bal 2 parts
20/11/2019, 15:17 -  Nifty 12000. Carry bal longs for tomorrow.

21/11/2019, 09:15 -  Gm. Nifty 12004. Continue with balance long position
21/11/2019, 11:45 -  Nifty trading around 11970. If it moves below 11970 and sustains then will exit remaining longs. So b on alert.
21/11/2019, 15:16 -  Nifty 11971. Holding on to 11970 support for now.
21/11/2019, 15:16 -  Carry bal long position for tomorrow.
22/11/2019, 09:16 -  Gm. Nifty 11950. If it sustains here then will exit bal long. Hold for some more time.
22/11/2019, 09:45 -  *nifty 11949 exit balance 2 parts long*
22/11/2019, 09:45 -  Position nil..
22/11/2019, 09:45 -  Wait for next trade...
22/11/2019, 10:20 -  Nifty 11916. We might see some more weakness however no shorts at this stage. will look out for opportunity to enter long again.
22/11/2019, 15:47 -  Nifty closed at 11915. Made a low of 11883. Nothing was to be done. Will wait and enter longs again at opportune time

25/11/2019, 09:26 -  Gm. Nifty 11940
25/11/2019, 09:27 -  Nothing to b done for now. Will advise if anything is to be done
25/11/2019, 12:14 -  *nifty 12010 buy 2 parts*
25/11/2019, 13:22 -  Nifty 12030.Continue with 2 part longs. Chances of market hitting a new lifetime high from here.
25/11/2019, 14:02 -  Having said that we continue to observe negative divergences so chances of one more fall, even after new all time high is achieved, is there.
25/11/2019, 15:33 -  Nifty 12075. Long to be carried for tomorrow
26/11/2019, 09:18 -  Gm *nifty 12125 book profit one part*
26/11/2019, 09:18 -  Carry bal one part long
26/11/2019, 09:30 -  2 parts long added yestersay @ 12010 profit booked one part today @ 12125
26/11/2019, 13:28 -  Nifty 12080. Continue holding bal longs. One more jump is possible from here.
26/11/2019, 13:29 -  Hold with a sl of around 12020 (just above buy price)
26/11/2019, 15:29 -  Nifty 12035. Carry bal longs for tomorrow
27/11/2019, 09:26 -  Gm. Nifty 12095. Hold balance longs
27/11/2019, 15:14 -  Nifty 12100. Carry bal long position for tomorrow
28/11/2019, 09:22 -  Gm nifty 12115. Keep holding one part long.
28/11/2019, 12:32 -  *nifty 12140 book profit remaining long position*
28/11/2019, 12:33 -  No open position. Long entered at 12010 total profit booked now

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Happy Trading.

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 26th Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11500)

Upmove resumes: Nifty opened in positive zone around 11950 levels and kept on inching  up through out the day. It closed at 12080 up a whopping 165 points.

In previous post we had mentioned a possibility of Nifty heading for an another short term correction ( since 11970 was effectively broken). However we had also mentioned that no shorts are advised at this stage and long positions should be entered once 12K is taken. 12K was taken out in the morning session itself and after that markets putup another 80 points or so.

When markets are in a uptrend its very difficult to say for how long and how deep the corrections will lasts. Correction in strong uptrend can finish even in hours if not in days.In such markes one is better off buying at every available opportunity. Now the way things are unfolding it seems markets are in for a new all time high. In any case sensex has already broken above its all time high so Nifty is likely to follow suit.

This time Nifty has moved up with a strong momentum hence the chances of reclaiming 12100 are pretty high. Its likely that Nifty can test 12200-12300 levels however from the technical perspective there is a strong chance of Nifty begining another round of correction which might bring it again towards 11900-12K levels.

There are quite a few negative divergences which are suggesting that market may not be able to go much higher immediately.However again this doesnt mean that one should be looking to go short at current or above 12100. Its very much possible that markets just runup from here. So either way market has to go up either we consolidate first or then move up or we move up straightaway. Unless 11500 is broken we dont see any possibility of any significant correction in near term.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 25th Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11400)

Weakness resurfaces : Nifty failed to sustain 11970-950 levels and even dropped below 11900 levels during intraday trading. It made a low of 11880 levels and closed at 11915 levels down 55 points.

In previous post we had mentioned that if Nifty hold above 11970 then we can expect anoher leg on the upside. Nifty traded around 11970 level for most part of the day yesterday and today it broke below the level. We had also mentioned that Bears need to take out 11950 levels (11900 preferably) for some sort of bearish scenario to emerge. We had also mentioned that since last 2 weeks , markets are seeing a sellout on Friday.

Markets did see a selloff today again ( in line with last 2 weeks trend) and bears also managed to broke below 11900 ( even though closing is above 11900 levels). Considering all these things ( failure to hold 11970-11950 levels and breaking of 11900 levels), its very much likely that for a very short term markets have again entered a small bearish or corrective zone.

However that doesnt mean that a trend down on the downside has started, all it means is that market may take anothr pause and not break above 12K levels in jiffy. Most daily momentum indicators are also crossed over in negative terrritory.

There is possibility of some sort of corrections from here hence long positions should be exited for now and fresh longs are advised only above 12K levels. Overall trend of markets still remains up so no shorts are advised at current levels as markets can complete this correction anytime and stage a V shaped recovery. If markets does fall from here then it could offer an excellent buying opportunity once again.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 21st Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11400)

12K Conquered : Nifty opend around 12K and went on to touch a high of 12040 levels. It dropped a little from there and settled at 12K , up 60 points.

In previous post we had mentioned- 

"If markets manages to break above 11970-75 levels then we can expect another sharp upmove on the other hand a breakbelow 11850 can drag market a little bit more However trend remains up as long as 11400 holds"

Market opened above 11970 and and went on to move above previous high at 12038. Even though market failed to close decisively above 12K levels, the fact that it has closed above 11970 levels augurs good for the medium term. If Nifty shows strength tomorrow as well and manages to give a positive clos then it can move further up from current levels.For a bearish scenario to emerge from here markets needs a weak close below 11950 levels (Ideally 11900) tomorrow/Friday

More time market spends above 11970 levels, more the chances of it breaking above new all time high. However it must be noted that since last 2 weeks markets are seeing a selloff on Friday so it will be intresting to see if same is repeated this week as well.

For now, as long as 11950-11970 is maintained there are chances of markets breaking above new all time high and for a bearish scenario to emerge, bears should act now and act fast as the scenario is favouring and changing towards bulls side for the time being.

Happy Trading!