Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 25th Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11400)

Weakness resurfaces : Nifty failed to sustain 11970-950 levels and even dropped below 11900 levels during intraday trading. It made a low of 11880 levels and closed at 11915 levels down 55 points.

In previous post we had mentioned that if Nifty hold above 11970 then we can expect anoher leg on the upside. Nifty traded around 11970 level for most part of the day yesterday and today it broke below the level. We had also mentioned that Bears need to take out 11950 levels (11900 preferably) for some sort of bearish scenario to emerge. We had also mentioned that since last 2 weeks , markets are seeing a sellout on Friday.

Markets did see a selloff today again ( in line with last 2 weeks trend) and bears also managed to broke below 11900 ( even though closing is above 11900 levels). Considering all these things ( failure to hold 11970-11950 levels and breaking of 11900 levels), its very much likely that for a very short term markets have again entered a small bearish or corrective zone.

However that doesnt mean that a trend down on the downside has started, all it means is that market may take anothr pause and not break above 12K levels in jiffy. Most daily momentum indicators are also crossed over in negative terrritory.

There is possibility of some sort of corrections from here hence long positions should be exited for now and fresh longs are advised only above 12K levels. Overall trend of markets still remains up so no shorts are advised at current levels as markets can complete this correction anytime and stage a V shaped recovery. If markets does fall from here then it could offer an excellent buying opportunity once again.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 21st Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11400)

12K Conquered : Nifty opend around 12K and went on to touch a high of 12040 levels. It dropped a little from there and settled at 12K , up 60 points.

In previous post we had mentioned- 

"If markets manages to break above 11970-75 levels then we can expect another sharp upmove on the other hand a breakbelow 11850 can drag market a little bit more However trend remains up as long as 11400 holds"

Market opened above 11970 and and went on to move above previous high at 12038. Even though market failed to close decisively above 12K levels, the fact that it has closed above 11970 levels augurs good for the medium term. If Nifty shows strength tomorrow as well and manages to give a positive clos then it can move further up from current levels.For a bearish scenario to emerge from here markets needs a weak close below 11950 levels (Ideally 11900) tomorrow/Friday

More time market spends above 11970 levels, more the chances of it breaking above new all time high. However it must be noted that since last 2 weeks markets are seeing a selloff on Friday so it will be intresting to see if same is repeated this week as well.

For now, as long as 11950-11970 is maintained there are chances of markets breaking above new all time high and for a bearish scenario to emerge, bears should act now and act fast as the scenario is favouring and changing towards bulls side for the time being.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 20th Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11400)

Range-Bound Movement : Nifty opend around 11930 but quickly dropped below 11900 once again. It moved up above 11900 and traded around 11920-30 for most part of the day before making a last minute dash towards 11950. It finally closed at 11940 levels, up 55 points.

In our last update we had mentioned: -

"keep an eye on 11950-11975 levels , a strong move above these levels could indicate that sideways trend is probably over for now and markets could move higher from here. However on the downside if Nifty start trading below 11875-11850 levels then probably it would mean the correction might stretch for some more time on the downside."

Nifty yesterday did drop to 11870 levels but didnt break it inspite of trading for most part of the day around this level and today it once again took support near 11970 and went on to touch 11960 which is the upper end of this trading range. So far Nifty has not broken the range but since it held on to 11870 and closed near the top end of the range, there is a chance that it could be broken on the upside.In case that happens and Nifty goes on to break (and sustain) 11970 levels, there is a chance that market start moving up and touches higher level. On the other hand if Nifty again drops below 11900 and goes on to break 11870-50 levels then theres a strong probability of current correction extending a bit more ( price wise and time wise) from here.

So for now we remain range bound but if markets manage to break above 11970-75 levels then we can expect another sharp upmove on the other hand a breakbelow 11850 can drag market a little bit more However trend remains up as long as 11400 holds.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 18th Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11400)

Still Sideways : Nifty Today moved up and touched a high of 11975 levels but once again slipped from there and closed below 11900 levels. it closed at 11895 a tad below 11900 levels.

In last few post we have mentioning about a possibility of nifty remaining sideways and Nifty indeed is trading sideways for last 7-8 days. However after looking at the way market is trading around 11900, its a possibility that sideways trend is already over and nifty start moving up again from here. In any case , like we have been saying, the overall trend of the market remains up ( and will remain as long as 11400 is not broken).

Next weeks trading ( especially monday/tuesday) could be crucial. if nifty break below 11875-850 and drops to11800-820 level once again then the sidways trend could continue for some more time. However if market start trading srongly above 11950-11975 levels then there is likelyhood of market making a move towards its all time high ( 12100). Please note that sensex has already broken above its alltime high and its highly likely that nifty does the same too.

Market has been in a strong uptrend and will continue to see periodical correction or sideways swings. These correction can get over in 1 week or can take one month, thats totally upto markets and no one can predict that. Once shouldnot try to trade on the opposite side of the main trend ( short in this case).

In nutshell, keep an eye on 11950-11975 levels , a strong move above these levels could indicate that sideways trend is probably over for now and markets could move higher from here. However on the downside if Nifty start trading below 11875-11850 levels then probably it would mean the correction might stretch for some more time on the downside.

Happy Trading

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 14th Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11400)

Sideways : Nifty again slipped more than 100+ points from its day high and failed to hold on to 11900 levels. It made a low of 11820 levels and closed at 11840 levels (down 75 points).

Like we have been saying in last few updates, even though market remains in an uptrend from medium term perspective, there is a likleyhood that in short term or near term we could see some sideways trading or some weakness. In last 2-3 days nifty has slipped to 11800 levels from its high of 12K+ levels. Nifty had put up more than 500+ points from low of 11500 in 4-5 days hence a correction was always overdue. On a broader time frame we have seen 1500+ points rally from lows of 10600 so a timewise ( if not price wise) correction is always due.

Going forward too we can see some more weakness or sideways trading from current levels however looking at current fall its not looking like an impulsive move so chances of this correction extending below 11400-11500 looks remote for now. However if se see some sharp followup selling below 11800-11700 then we need to be cautious.

Overall we see Niftty eventually going back above 12000 & even12500 levels but before that we can see a period of volatility or sidways trading. it would be intresting to see if market does fall further from here and what is the manner of fall (sometimes the manner of fall tells a lot about market intention). Overall trend of market remains up as long as 11400 is held. Ccurrent correction can get over at any level between 11400-11900 and market can trade in a tight range doing nothing but once this correction gets over, we hould be seeing another leg on the upside.