Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 20th Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11400)

Range-Bound Movement : Nifty opend around 11930 but quickly dropped below 11900 once again. It moved up above 11900 and traded around 11920-30 for most part of the day before making a last minute dash towards 11950. It finally closed at 11940 levels, up 55 points.

In our last update we had mentioned: -

"keep an eye on 11950-11975 levels , a strong move above these levels could indicate that sideways trend is probably over for now and markets could move higher from here. However on the downside if Nifty start trading below 11875-11850 levels then probably it would mean the correction might stretch for some more time on the downside."

Nifty yesterday did drop to 11870 levels but didnt break it inspite of trading for most part of the day around this level and today it once again took support near 11970 and went on to touch 11960 which is the upper end of this trading range. So far Nifty has not broken the range but since it held on to 11870 and closed near the top end of the range, there is a chance that it could be broken on the upside.In case that happens and Nifty goes on to break (and sustain) 11970 levels, there is a chance that market start moving up and touches higher level. On the other hand if Nifty again drops below 11900 and goes on to break 11870-50 levels then theres a strong probability of current correction extending a bit more ( price wise and time wise) from here.

So for now we remain range bound but if markets manage to break above 11970-75 levels then we can expect another sharp upmove on the other hand a breakbelow 11850 can drag market a little bit more However trend remains up as long as 11400 holds.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 18th Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11400)

Still Sideways : Nifty Today moved up and touched a high of 11975 levels but once again slipped from there and closed below 11900 levels. it closed at 11895 a tad below 11900 levels.

In last few post we have mentioning about a possibility of nifty remaining sideways and Nifty indeed is trading sideways for last 7-8 days. However after looking at the way market is trading around 11900, its a possibility that sideways trend is already over and nifty start moving up again from here. In any case , like we have been saying, the overall trend of the market remains up ( and will remain as long as 11400 is not broken).

Next weeks trading ( especially monday/tuesday) could be crucial. if nifty break below 11875-850 and drops to11800-820 level once again then the sidways trend could continue for some more time. However if market start trading srongly above 11950-11975 levels then there is likelyhood of market making a move towards its all time high ( 12100). Please note that sensex has already broken above its alltime high and its highly likely that nifty does the same too.

Market has been in a strong uptrend and will continue to see periodical correction or sideways swings. These correction can get over in 1 week or can take one month, thats totally upto markets and no one can predict that. Once shouldnot try to trade on the opposite side of the main trend ( short in this case).

In nutshell, keep an eye on 11950-11975 levels , a strong move above these levels could indicate that sideways trend is probably over for now and markets could move higher from here. However on the downside if Nifty start trading below 11875-11850 levels then probably it would mean the correction might stretch for some more time on the downside.

Happy Trading

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 14th Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11400)

Sideways : Nifty again slipped more than 100+ points from its day high and failed to hold on to 11900 levels. It made a low of 11820 levels and closed at 11840 levels (down 75 points).

Like we have been saying in last few updates, even though market remains in an uptrend from medium term perspective, there is a likleyhood that in short term or near term we could see some sideways trading or some weakness. In last 2-3 days nifty has slipped to 11800 levels from its high of 12K+ levels. Nifty had put up more than 500+ points from low of 11500 in 4-5 days hence a correction was always overdue. On a broader time frame we have seen 1500+ points rally from lows of 10600 so a timewise ( if not price wise) correction is always due.

Going forward too we can see some more weakness or sideways trading from current levels however looking at current fall its not looking like an impulsive move so chances of this correction extending below 11400-11500 looks remote for now. However if se see some sharp followup selling below 11800-11700 then we need to be cautious.

Overall we see Niftty eventually going back above 12000 & even12500 levels but before that we can see a period of volatility or sidways trading. it would be intresting to see if market does fall further from here and what is the manner of fall (sometimes the manner of fall tells a lot about market intention). Overall trend of market remains up as long as 11400 is held. Ccurrent correction can get over at any level between 11400-11900 and market can trade in a tight range doing nothing but once this correction gets over, we hould be seeing another leg on the upside.

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 11th Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11400)

Nifty today slipped 100+ points to close at 11900 levels. On weekly chart even though it posted a new high, the closing was almost flat.

We have been saying since last few days that even though the near term trend remains up the markets are looking a bit tired and the way markets are trading are giving an impression that its losing momentum slowly. However that doesnt mean that overall trend of the market has turned down, it only means that for near term there could be some sideways correction.

Yesterday Nifty closed above 12K and that must have been good enough to cut stoplosses of many traders who were on short side however today markets again slipped below 12K ( and even 11900). 

We had also mentioned that nifty needs a strong close above 11985 levels to signal start of a fresh uptrend. While Nifty closed above 11985 yesterday, it failed to close above it today and the weekly closing has come below 11985 levels as well.

For short term we could continue to witness choppiness and sideways trading and we dont think Nifty could fall much from here however a fall till 11450-11500 is very much possible ( ~400 points from cmp) and as long as 11400 is held the uptrend of the market remains up. A strong close above 12050-12100 would proably mean that sideway correction is over and markets have opend a fresh leg on the upside.

As per our analysis and after seeing the way the markets have traded in last few days it has become clear that markets wants to go higher (much higher from current levels) but the upmove might not come immeidately and nifty can spend a little bit of time (even 1-2 month is a possibility) at these levels. After all we have seen a strong rally of ~1500 points in last 40-45 days so some bit of consolidation is natural and healthy. Whenever this correction gets over markets are likely to open a new leg on the upside, till then trade light and as soon the charts give confirmation, one should go all in.

Trade well Trade wisely.

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 5th Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11375)

Upmove continues: Nifty inched up further 50 points to close at 11954 levels.

In the previous post we had mentioned that uptrend in Nifty remains intact hence buying on dips strategy should be adopted for now and one must refrain from shorting at this stage. We had also mentioned that even though markets are strong and likely to move up further from here there is a likelihood of markets sliiping from here a little as some bit of tiredness is creeping in the markets.

We did see markets slipping from 11950 levels on friday however today markets have againg bounced back and closed just a tad below Fridays high. For now the same view stands even now, we continue to see some bit of tiredness in the market which could result in some sort of a fall or some sideways movement ( mind you its just a probability for now) for short term. If we do indeed see some correction from these levels then markets can slip to 11650-11700 levels. 11650 is a very strong support for Nifty and markets are not likely to break this level easily however in case it does then we can drop further towards 11450-500 levels. 

Overall trend of the markets remains on the upiside and as long as 11400 is intact the trend remains intact too and if do see some correction which fails to break below 11650 and 11400 then it could prove to be an excellent buying opportunity once again. Shorts are suggested only below 11400 ( some bit of shorting can be done once 11650 is broken for a quick gain of 100-150 points with adequate SL). on the upside a strong close above 11980 levels would probably negate the chances of markets giving a short term correction from these levels.

Happy Trading!