Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 11th Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11400)

Nifty today slipped 100+ points to close at 11900 levels. On weekly chart even though it posted a new high, the closing was almost flat.

We have been saying since last few days that even though the near term trend remains up the markets are looking a bit tired and the way markets are trading are giving an impression that its losing momentum slowly. However that doesnt mean that overall trend of the market has turned down, it only means that for near term there could be some sideways correction.

Yesterday Nifty closed above 12K and that must have been good enough to cut stoplosses of many traders who were on short side however today markets again slipped below 12K ( and even 11900). 

We had also mentioned that nifty needs a strong close above 11985 levels to signal start of a fresh uptrend. While Nifty closed above 11985 yesterday, it failed to close above it today and the weekly closing has come below 11985 levels as well.

For short term we could continue to witness choppiness and sideways trading and we dont think Nifty could fall much from here however a fall till 11450-11500 is very much possible ( ~400 points from cmp) and as long as 11400 is held the uptrend of the market remains up. A strong close above 12050-12100 would proably mean that sideway correction is over and markets have opend a fresh leg on the upside.

As per our analysis and after seeing the way the markets have traded in last few days it has become clear that markets wants to go higher (much higher from current levels) but the upmove might not come immeidately and nifty can spend a little bit of time (even 1-2 month is a possibility) at these levels. After all we have seen a strong rally of ~1500 points in last 40-45 days so some bit of consolidation is natural and healthy. Whenever this correction gets over markets are likely to open a new leg on the upside, till then trade light and as soon the charts give confirmation, one should go all in.

Trade well Trade wisely.

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 5th Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11375)

Upmove continues: Nifty inched up further 50 points to close at 11954 levels.

In the previous post we had mentioned that uptrend in Nifty remains intact hence buying on dips strategy should be adopted for now and one must refrain from shorting at this stage. We had also mentioned that even though markets are strong and likely to move up further from here there is a likelihood of markets sliiping from here a little as some bit of tiredness is creeping in the markets.

We did see markets slipping from 11950 levels on friday however today markets have againg bounced back and closed just a tad below Fridays high. For now the same view stands even now, we continue to see some bit of tiredness in the market which could result in some sort of a fall or some sideways movement ( mind you its just a probability for now) for short term. If we do indeed see some correction from these levels then markets can slip to 11650-11700 levels. 11650 is a very strong support for Nifty and markets are not likely to break this level easily however in case it does then we can drop further towards 11450-500 levels. 

Overall trend of the markets remains on the upiside and as long as 11400 is intact the trend remains intact too and if do see some correction which fails to break below 11650 and 11400 then it could prove to be an excellent buying opportunity once again. Shorts are suggested only below 11400 ( some bit of shorting can be done once 11650 is broken for a quick gain of 100-150 points with adequate SL). on the upside a strong close above 11980 levels would probably negate the chances of markets giving a short term correction from these levels.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 1st Nov 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11200)

Soaring High: Nifty Continue to soar high and today touched a high of 11950 levels before giving up most of the gains towards close of play and settling at 11880 level up 30 points. 

We have continuously been saying that overall trend of the markets remains on the upside and traders should not try to short this market. Dips are likely to come and will come from time to time but those should be utilised to enter into long positions and not going shorts.

Nifty has put up more than 1000+ points in last 15-20 trading sessions and the way strength is building up in market it looks like market can scale even higher levels from hereone. Regular readers of this blog are aware that we predicted 13K levels last month and today markets have almost kissed that level and turned back.

Now does that mean everything is +ve in the market? not quite. The way markets are trading since last 2-3 days it seems some bit of tiredness is creeping up and momentum is begining to slow down a little.( even though there is nothing on the price chart which is suggesting that). If we see some price correction in next days then its highly likely that even the price chart will start suggesting the same. So there is likely hood of markets taking a bit easy from here on for next few days. it remains to be seen if we do indeed see some price correction ( which is looking possible from current levels).But still that doesnt mean that one  should go short at current levels, even if we see some weakness and market drops 200-300 points then once again it could be an exellent opportunity to go long.

In Nutshell, markets are rising every day and they are expected to go up further but one needs to be stay cautious as some tiredness is being observed at current levels which could result in some choppiness and some bit of selling from here. "Buying on dips" is the call of the hour and one should strictly avoid going shorts(for now).

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 29th Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11100)

Rangebound moves: : Nifty  opened flat then dropped 70-80 points intraday and went on to touch 11500 levels. However it moved sharply again and moved towards 11600 levels once again and closed flat at 11580 levels.

We had mentioned few days back that after touching 11700 we should see some pullback/volality and a downmove so it make sense to book profit and exit for some time but keep in mind we never recommended going short. market indeed has dropped around 200 points from 11700 now.

Now it seems market have started a corrective move exactly from 11700 levels ( which was the previous top as well) so on daily charts we have a double top like pattern.However the downmove  post 11700 ( last 2-3 days) is not indicating (yet) that markets have opened a big or trending leg on the downside hence the overall trend remains on the upside and it needs to be seen for how long and how far this corrective move can stretch. Like we mentoned in the previous posts, this corrective move on the downside can extend even upto 11200-11100 levels and even then the uptrend will remain intact.

Now we are not saying that markets are bearish and one should open a short position, all we are saying is that one should wait for this corrective move to end and the price confirmation is visible on the charts then go long. 

Trading position should always be on the direction of main trend. In this market, right now, the main trend is on the upside and therefore a trader should always be looking at opportunities to go long only.If you are not convinced about going long then sit tight but dont go short.

In nutshell, It seems market have completed some small wave on the upside and the shortterm corrrection/sideways movement is on ( which can finish here or even extend till 11200 levels). If we some fall from here then it could very prove to be yet another opportunity to go long so keep your eyes open. Till now there is no indication on the charts that this downmove can extend beiyond 11100 levels but in case market does fall and 11100-111200 is breaached then we will see and anayse further but like we said chances of that happening is not looking very strong (till today).

Wish everyone a very Happy and Prosperous Diwali.Please trade well and Trade Wisely..

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 23rd Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11100)

Nifty Pull Backs: : Nifty opened positive around 11700 today but saw some bit of profit booking at higher levels and fell below 11600 levels. It closed at 11590 levels ( down 70 points).

In previous post we had clearly mentioned that even though the near term trend of the market remains on the upside some amount of pull back or profit booking is likely form these levels as markets are approaching overbought zone from short term perspective. also Nifty had runup quite a bit in last 7-8 tradng sessions so the downmove is totally on the expected lines.

Going forward, now that we have broken below 11600, sustained trading below 11600 could invite a bit more selling and push Nifty down a bit more from here. On the downside 11400-450 zone should offer a strong support but even its broken, Nifty can find support anywhere in 11100-11550 zone. Its a big range hence traders are advised not to go short but wait for right opportunity to go long ( on the first sign of a breakout). Overall trend remains up as long as 11050 level stays intact.

From trading perspective we exited our longs @ 11690 levels in the morning session today itself. below are some of the messages/chat excerpts we shared with our subscribers ( note these are not 100% messages)

01/10/2019, 13:53 - : *Nfty 11350 buy one part*
01/10/2019, 14:31 - : Nifty 11300.keep holding all longs... Dont panic
10/2019, 09:18 - : Keep holding all longs, and wait for msg to add more longs
04/10/2019, 14:41 - : *nifty 11215 continue to hold all longs*
04/10/2019, 15:29 - : 11170. Carry all Longs for next week
9/10/2019, 09:16 - : Good morning nifty trading flat. Continue holding all longs. Will add one more part long later.
09/10/2019, 12:02 - : Nifty 11220. Up 95 points Keep holding longs, will add more longs above 11240 levels..
09/10/2019, 14:16 - :*nifty 11250 buy one part / sell nifty 11200 PE @ 150*
09/10/2019, 15:02 - : Nifty 11320. Carry all long positions for tomorrow (less risky traders can book some partial profits)
10/2019, 09:40 - : Nifty 11360. Up 120+ Continue holding all longs. Less risky traders can book partial profits
15/10/2019, 12:08 - : *nifty 11200 put book profit at cmp 79*
5/10/2019, 20:19 - : <Media omitted>
16/10/2019, 15:13 - : Nifty 11470. Carry long positions for tomorrow
17/10/2019, 10:12 - : Good morning, nifty continue to trade positive at 11475 levels. Continue holding 2 parts long
17/10/2019, 10:13 - : Nothing to be done for now. We need to observe mkts for some time before taking fresh trading calls. We hold longs with a SL of around 11375 levels now.
17/10/2019, 13:44 - : Nifty 11540. Nothing to be done, continue to carry long positions (less risk traders can book some more partial profits)
17/10/2019, 15:16 - : Nifty 11590 carry balance long (2 parts) for tomorrow.
17/10/2019, 15:33 - : http://.com/2019/10/nifty-analysis-outlook-and-trend-for_17.html?m=1
18/10/2019, 09:19 - : Good morning, nifty trading flat @11565. Keep holding 2 parts long
18/10/2019, 09:22 - : SL for existing longs raised to around 11475 levels now.
18/10/2019, 12:02 - : Nifty 11640. Inching towards recent high of 11695. 
18/10/2019, 12:03 - : Continue to hold balance long position.
18/10/2019, 15:19 - : Nifty 11660. Hit a high of 11685 (just 10 points shy of new high). Carry bal long positions for next week.
18/10/2019, 15:59 - : http://.com/2019/10/nifty-analysis-outlook-and-trend-for_18.html?m=1
22/10/2019, 09:19 - : *nifty 11685 book profit one part*
22/10/2019, 09:38 - : *nifty 11665 book profit bal one part*
22/10/2019, 09:38 - : No open position. Wait for next trade
22/10/2019, 09:48 - : Some profit booking is likely from here.
22/10/2019, 13:57 - : Nifty 11617. As expected, some pull back from 11700 levels. Fall can stretch if nifty breaks below xxxxx levels
22/10/2019, 13:57 - : Nothing to be done for now.
22/10/2019, 13:58 - : Preserve profits, will advise when have to enter again

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 22nd Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11100)

Upward March Continues: : Nifty posted yet another day of strong move and closed at 11660 up 75 points.

Overall Nifty continues to move in line with our expectations and continue to scale new highs on daily basis. We have been recommending going long and advising strongly against entering into short positions for quite some time and for now the strategy seems to be paying rich dividends.

Now lets just take a step back and see the movements of last few days. Nifty had hit a high of 10695 few days back and from there it moved to 11090 in 10 trading sessions. Since then Nifty has been moving up (today was 7th day of upmove). If nifty goes on to cross 10695 levels in next couple of trading sessions then it will further strengthen the case of Nifty moving further up from here ( nifty almost crossed this level today hit a high of 10686 just 10 points short).

Having said this, though the uptrend remains on and is likely to get stronger in the times to come , there is always a likelihood of Nifty starting a corrective wave and pulling back slightly. Its beginning to get slightly overbought and the momentum is also falling ( inspite of strong upmoves we have seen in last 1-2 days) hence we dont rule a possibility of some sideways move or some sort of correction in days to come.It may come from current levels or Nifty can rise further 100-200 points and then correct but again, if the correction comes then it could provide an excellent buying opportunity yet again.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 18th Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)

Exhibiting Strength : Nifty continues to march upwawrds and put up another 120+ points today to close at 11585 .

We have been saying that the Nifty is in uptrend and all dips should be utilised to go long. We have been advising against going short and had also mentioned if 11400-440 level is crossed then we are looking at higher levels of 11550-600 and 11700 after that. Nifty successfully closed above 11440 yesterday and today it broke above 11550.Now in near future it might continue to move up or give a short correction or sharp fall of or 100-200 points and then resume its journey but one thing is for sure that overall journey for markets remains on the upside.

Couple of days back we had posted a chart with the possible wavecounts and till now there is no change in it (Nifty continue to trade in wave 3). Markets seems to be moving on expected lines for now and we dont see any reason for changing our view and assumptions. Having said this, tomorrow if chart changes then our view will change as well but till now we see nothing on the charts which demands a re-think of our existing view.

So no major change as of now, if you are regular reader of this blog , you are aware of our views and what we have been saying. Trend remains on the upisde and it make sense to trade on the long side for now and if any correction comes then same should be utilised to enter long positions ( ofcourse with strict stop losses). 11550-11650 is a crucial level and some amount of consolidation/pull back from these levels cannot be ruled out. 

Happy Trading!