Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 09th Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)

Downmove Continues : Nifty opened flat and traded above 11200 for most part of the day but failed to cross above its key resistance area of 11250 and shed 100+ points from its day high. It hit a low of around 11115 and closed at 11126, down 50 odd points.

Nifty has been trading weak since last 8-9 trading session  (ever since it hit a high of 11700) and now has shed around 600 points from the highs it hit couple of weeks back. This continuos weakness in markets is raising doubts and questions if the recent high was just a pullback rally driven by corp rate cut news and now the markets have resumed its downtrend already. In our opinion, it would be too early to conclude that. Inspite of market showing weakness for last few sessions market remains in a uptrend ( for now) and till the time sustained trading is seen below 11050 levels , it would not be wise to bet on the short/bearish side.

Charts and technicals continue to point towards a possible uptrend (which has already started) and for now we are reading the fall from 11700 levels as a corrective fall of the 1000+ rise we saw from the lows of 10650.

In Nutshell, evern though markets continue to be weak and continue to move South, there are many indicators suggesting a probability of markets starting yet another bullish move from these levels hence it doesnt make sense to go short at current levels. If Nifty break below 11050-11K levels then we will have to see and probably re-analyse all data but for now nothing changes.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 03rd Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)

Sharp Fall : Nifty yesterday saw a sharp fall of more than 200+ points towards 11250 area but recovered nearly 50% of the losses to close at 11350 levels, down 100 points.

We have continuously been saying that since nifty has run up 1000 points from its recent low, some amount of correction/sidwaymovement/consolidation or a dip is possible from current levels. However that doesnt mean that Nifty has resumed its downtrend.  We continue to believe that Nifty is headed higher from current levels but ofcourse that doesnt mean that we cannot see some sharp fall ( like we witnessed yesterday).

Going forward too we can see the 11300-11250 again getting tested and aslong as 11050-11100 stands there is no threat to the current upmove which started from 10700 levels.All sharp selloffs or a panic selling should be utilised to go long.

There are many analyst who are seeing the move from 10700-11600 as a retracement rally (of a previous downmove) and are expecting nifty to fall to 10600-10700 level again. However our view is different ( and has been different for a while now) we continue to believe that after the current consolidation is over,Nifty will start a second leg of the upmove ( which could be as strong as the first one was)

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 01st Oct 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)

Market Consolidates : Nifty opened week below 11500 levels and went on to touch 11390 but recovered most of the losses later. It close at 11475 levels down 35 points.

Overall Nifty continue to move on the expected lines and after giving a rally of 1000+ points some bit of consolidation is expected at current levels. This consolidation may continue for some more time around these levels or Nifty can give one more sharp upmove from current levles towards 11700-12K and then cosolidates. In either scenario, we are expecting Nifty to move up from these levels. In between if there is any dip towards 11300 then it should be utilised as a buying opportunity.


Nutshell, nothing much to add as nothing has changed till now.We would like to reitirate that It doesnt make any sense to short this market at current levels. As long as 11200-11100 sustains we expect Nifty to move up from current levels hence utilise all dips to go long.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 27th Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)
Strong Expiry : Nifty opened with a positive bias , just below 11500 levels and quickly moved on to 11600 levels. It traded between 11500-600 for most part of the day and closed at 11570 levels up 130 points.

Today inspite of expiry day, there wasn't too much volatility and Nifty quickly erased all the losses of yesterday. Like we have been guiding and advising, the near term trend for Nifty remains up and all dips could be utilised to enter long positions now.

We had changed the medium term trend of Nifty to 'up' when it closed at 11075 levels couple of weeks back and since then Nifty has gained 500+ points. Infact when Nifty was trading at 10800-700 levels we were continuously advising against going shorts and maintained our view that this was just a part of bottoming out process and Nifty could make some important bottom around these levels and head higher.

On monthly charts ( expiry to expiry) Nifty has gained around 600 points which is a very positive and bullish sign. Going forward, now since Nifty has already run up close to 1000 points from its recent lows so theres a chance of some consolidation around these levels. Its entirely possible that Nifty spend some time here and then move up or it may move a little more from here ( 300-400 points) and then start consolidating. In nutshell it will continue to move up and there is nothing on charts which is suggesting that Nifty wants to go down in a hurry. Tomorrow if chart change then our view will change as well but for now we continue to believe that Nifty is headed higher from here.

below is the snapshot of some of the messages/trades we executed and shared with our subscribers.
 in last few weeks.

07/08/2019, 11:11 - : *nifty 10950 buy 2 parts*
23/08/2019, 09:47 - : Good morning. Nifty 10652. Buy 2 more parts
23/08/2019, 09:49 - : Hold with SL 10620 (Small sl)
23/08/2019, 10:33 - : *nifty 10755 book profit 2 parts long*
30/08/2019, 09:58 - : Trading around 11010. Keep holding longs, let volatility and consolidation (whatever little is remaining) play out. Post this consolidation we expect nifty to break much higher levels.
03/09/2019, 09:26 - : Good morning, nifty trading weak @10920 weak gdp data and iip numbers weighing heavily on mkts. Keep holding longs for now
06/09/2019, 09:55 - : *nifty 10892 sell 10800 PE @ 112*
06/09/2019, 09:56 - : Alternatively nifty long can be initiated at cmp @10890.
06/09/2019, 15:06 - : Njfty 10945. Less risky traders can book profits in long initiated today around 10890 or in 10800 pe. Else carry all long for next week.
09/09/2019, 09:50 - : Good morning, nifty trading around 10920. Keep holding all longs for now. Nothing to be done
09/09/2019, 10:08 - : *book profit nifty 10800 PE @cmp 77*
09/09/2019, 10:09 - : Nifty 10977.keep holding long nifty futures.
19/09/2019, 11:41 - : Nifty 10760, nothing to be done yet. Nifty might make a u turn soon
19/09/2019, 15:22 - : Nifty 10715.carry longs for Tomorrow
20/09/2019, 11:52 - : Nifty 11205, seeing an unprecedented rally. Up 500 points. It was long overdue though. Risky traders can book some part profit at these levels else continue to hold all 4 parts
20/09/2019, 15:03 - : Nifty 11280. Carry all longs for nifty
20/09/2019, 15:03 - : Less risky traders can do some part profit booking.
23/09/2019, 09:15 - : *nifty 11580 book profit 2 parts*


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Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 25th Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)

Adding Strength : Nifty opened flat and consolidated around 11600 levels for most part of the day. It closed at 11590 , down 10 points.

Nifty has gone up more than a  1000 points in last 2-3 trading session. We had continuously been mentioning since last one month that 10700-10800 is a possible bottoming out zone and could be a long term bottom for Nifty and if Nifty holds it that it can touch higher levels. Nifty indeed made a bottom around 10700 levels and after spending few days of high volatility it jumped in one sharp move and took everyone with surprise. Of course the corp rate tax cut helped but markets were destined to move higher anyways (announcements/reasons are always secondary). If markets wants to move up they will find some or the other excuse to do so ( same is true when it wants to go down).

Going forward, now since that Nifty has moved so much hence we could see some consolidation or range bound  movement at current levels or its entirely possible that we see one more sharp upmove and then see some correction/sideway movement but the overall trajectory of Market in near term is likely to remain up now. On the downside 11350-11450 should offer good support to Nifty now.

In Nutshell, Nifty is now in a strong uptrend and is likely to move up further in near term from these levels hence any dip should be utilized for going long only. We don't recommend going short at any level.


Happy Trading!
                       





 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 23rd Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 10820)

Monster Rally : Nifty opened on a flattish note around 10700 but quickly jumped up at the news of corp rate taxcut and didn't look back. Market jumped by a mammoth 600 point plus and Nifty closed at 11274 levels.

Regular reader of our blog are aware that we have been maintaining a bullish stand since last 2-3 weeks and have been continuously mentioning that the volatility we are witnessing is just part of the bottoming out process. We expected Nifty to hit bottom around 10700-10800 zone and made a move on the upside. Volatility may have got a bit stretched but we had clearly mentioned in our last update "don't be scared of the volatility, its highly likely that its just part of the bottoming out process which could push Nifty on the upside again" and that's how markets panned out exactly. We had changed the medium term trend of markets to 'up' from 'down' last Friday ( when we got a close above 11075)

We had also mentioned that 11800 is a strong support but in case it breaks , markets can drift to 10650-700 levels but as long as 10583 is not broken the trend will not change. Yesterday markets broke below 10800 and tested 11670 levels and today it has moved up back to 11300 levels. Now many can claim that move up on the upside has come due to rate cut tax but frankly if markets didn't want to go up then this upmove could have easily fizzled out after 100-200 point. This upmove was due and it would have come anyways regardless of news or no news.

In such markets its always prudent to trade in the direction of main trend and at the same time one should not try trade too much by trying to time markets. Get into position and stick with it till the time trend doesn't changes. Those who exited during last 2-3 days fall would find difficult to enter again as markets have run up beyond their reach in blink of an eye. Today market has cancelled last 4 days fall in just one day and going by the rules of Neo-Wave this marks the beginning of a new uptrend.

Going forward , we believe the move we have seen today is just the beginning the of an impending bull run in Indian stock markets. Now since we have seen a strong 6% rally in just one trading session its possible that we might see some consolidation around current levels but markets have shown that an important bottom is done at 10650 levels which now should not be visited again in rest of 2019 (or even 2020). From trading perspective we maintain our bullish stance and our advise would be to continue with your long position. Nifty should continue to move on the upside from here towards higher (much higher) levels.

FYI,- below are the message we shared with out subscribers yesterday (Indicated that U turn is likely soon and long positions to be carried)

19/09/2019,09:32 - Good morning, nifty 10785. Keep holding all long positions for now
19/09/2019, 11:41 -Nifty 10760, nothing to be done yet. Nifty might make a u turn soon
19/09/2019, 15:22 -Nifty 10715.Carry all longs for Tomorrow.

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 https://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/02/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html


 Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 18th Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 10583)

Sharp Plunge : Nifty opened weak around 11K levels and keep pushing its way down and even tested 10800 levels just before the close. It closed at 10817 with a substantial loss of  185 points.

We have been mentioning since last few days (weeks actually) about Nifty making a bottom around 10700-10800 and starting a new leg on the upside. Last Friday, Nifty even gave a close above 11075 levels ( though by just one point) which was the pivotal point as per us from the medium term perspective. However today Nifty fell by a whopping 200 points and in last 2 days Market has lost around 250+ points but still that doesn't change our view. We continue to maintain that the volatility we are witnessing is just part of the bottoming out process. Now this may stop tomorrow or might continue for few more trading sessions but till now there is nothing on the charts which is suggesting that market is opening a fresh down move.

In yesterdays post we had clearly mentioned that any fresh down move can only be expected below 10800 levels only. Today market has taken support exactly at 10800 levels (infact it closed around 10800 so will know in next 1-2 sessions if 10800 indeed proves to be a crucial support). Bulls do not have to worry as long as 10800 stands. Only once market start trading below 10800 can we expect some more weakness and even then as long as 10583 is intact, the chances of market bottoming out at current levels and making a dash towards higher level is still there.

In Nutshell, don't be scared of the volatility, its highly likely that its just part of the bottoming out process which could push Nifty on the upside again. Holding 10800 could push Nifty back to 11K+ levels. However, in case Nifty start trading below 10800 levels and sustain there for more than 30-45 minutes then probably we could see some more weakness and Nifty drops to 10700-650 levels.

Happy Trading!