Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 6th Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11075)

Flat day: Nifty opened strong around 10900 but failed to sustained above it. Nifty made a high of 10920 and dropped 100 points from there, it finally closed at 10850 levels.

Nifty had a bad day on Tuesday and since then it is trying to gain some lost ground but not succeeding. Break of 10850 level has caused apprehension and weakness in Nifty and its struggling to make a move on. Though the last 2 days closing have been around 10850 points, we need to see if weekly close comes above or below it conclusively.

Weakness below 10850-10810 zone could push Nifty back towards 10750 levels however holding the same and then making a move above 10900-920 levels could push Nifty again to 11K+ levels. In case Nifty make a move above 10920 levels and sustain for some time then long position can be entered for a target of around 11K levels with a SL of 10860.

Overall we continue to believe that a bottoming out process is going in Nifty which has either completed already or could take some more days ( with some more volatility). Post this consolidation/volatility we expect a strong move. For now we don't see much weakness from current levels. Crossing above 11100 levels would be the first sign for such a move (but it should be impulsive and not corrective in nature).

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 4th Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11075)

Black Monday: Nifty opened with a gapdown at 10900 levels however unlike Friday, failed to find any support and broke below 10800. It closed with a massive loss of 200+ points @ 10797.

Fall in GDP and IIP weighed heavily on the markets and it crashed below 10800. it even broke the 10850 which brought further selling and weakness towards close and Nifty touched a low of 10772 before closing at 10800. However thing to note is that the fall has come on account of bad news and mostly the news driven rally or fall don't last for long.

Technically though we have fallen below 10850 we need to see if market is sustaining below these levels or attempt to bounce back. In short term we may see a bit of more weakness but our view doesn't change yet. We continue to believe that markets are in process of finding a bottom around these levels and these choppy moves and increased volatility is testimony of that. Now markets can go and fall a little bit more but till now there is nothing which is suggesting a broad fall from these levels. Of course sentiment driven fall or choppy moves can continue for some more time but for medium term perspective there is a probability of market making bottom around these levels.

The latest rally from 10650 to 11150 had taken just 3 days , now the fall from 11150 has taken 4 days already and it has still not able to retrace 100% of the previous rally. Also if you notice , the last 4 days fall from 11150 is clearly in a ABC corrective pattern and wherein ( after todays fall) the C leg has matched A leg. We need to observe if market tries to hold on to todays low and move above 10850 levels.

Another thing to note is that medium term pivot level has further moved down to 11075 levels (from 11220 earlier). In case market goes on to break above 11075 levels then hopefully that will pave the way for a fresh upmove in Nifty.

In Nutshell, there could be some more volatility and pain in coming days but overall it should be a part of the bottoming out process and once its done, we should be seeing an sustained move on the upside. Keep an eye on 11075-11100 levels, crossing over these levels would be the first sign of a fresh bull move.

Happy Trading

 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 03rd Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11220)

Choppy Day Nifty opened flat and quickly added 60 odd points jumped to 11020 levels only to dive down below 10900 levels. It made a U turn  once again and crossed above 11K and almost at day high @11023 up 75 points.

Nifty was again volatile but like we had mentioned in previous post that 10900-940 is likely to provide good support to Nifty and there is no real sign of worry as long as 10850 holds as any serious downside is expected below 10850 only. Nifty did break 10900 momentarily but couldn't sustain it and as expected it bounced back again.

Now that we have made a close above 11K levels , the next target for nifty is to breach the 11150-175 & 11220 levels above that. This level is providing stiff resistance to Nifty but it has been tested too many times and most likely , sooner or later, markets will break it ( this is what we feel as of today).

GDP numbers came in the evening and they don't look good. @ 5% GDP is at its slowest growth in last 6 years. This is likely to weigh in on markets when markets open for trading next week, though it was more or less expected and factored in by Markets.

In Nutshell, the pull back which started from lows of 10650 levels still continues and Market can break above 11220 levels then there is a possibility of this pullback changing into a fresh upmove. On the downside break below 10850 will most probably put an end to it.

Happy Trading!!


 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 30th Aug 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11220)

Weak Expiry: Nifty opened down today below 11K levels and made a low of 10920 levels. It made an attempt to cross 11K levels however couldn't sustain it and once again dropped to 10950 and closed almost 100 points down.

 

Nifty was pretty volatile today ( which is expected on a expiry day). yesterday we had mentioned that if 10980 is breached then will have to analyse it further, however looking at the way market moved today ( and the fact that it was an expiry day) , the breach of 10980 is not looking threatening as of now. The way market traded today shows that band of 10900-940 is likely to offer good support and further weakness is likely below this zone only.

 

Markets tend to volatile on expiry days hence one should not read too much into the ups and downs, mostly these movements are just there to extract favorable 'call/put settlements' by smart money. There was a good OI at 11K Puts which suggested that probably the expiry is going to come above 11k levels however it was not to be.

 

Now going forward we still hold on to our view that Nifty (probably) can go higher from here but for that to happen we must cross 11175-11220 levels. This zone is continuously acting as a resistance and nifty has tried 3 times to cross it but failed each time. However there is still a chance for markets to do that and if that happens will be extremely +ve for bulls. Intraday volatility is likely to be on higher side especially since global markets continue to be all over the place. On the downside 10900-940 zone is likely to offer support but no serious move on the downside is expected as long as 10850 holds.

 

Happy Trading!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 29th Aug 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11220)

Cooling off: Nifty opened flattish to positive but failed to sustain above 11100 levels. it dropped below 11K levels momentarily but recovered a bit in last hour to close at 11050 levels, down 60 points.

Yesterday we had mentioned that Nifty needs to take out 11175-11220 levels to establish the upmove firmly, however Nifty failed to do that but inspite of that nothing has changed now. We still believe that there is a strong probability of market hitting a near term bottom around 10650 levels but to confirm that we need a move above 11175-11220 levels. If nifty can sustain above 11200 levels then it will be a very big positive for markets.

Nifty might have dropped below 11K today but the fall was shallow and too slow and for now looking like a corrective pullback. If we see follow up selling below 10980 levels tomorrow then we will have to analyse it further but till then we don't think we should be reading too much into it.

So for now there is no change in our view and if Nifty crosses and sustain above 11220 then it could open a gateway to much higher levels & on the downside 10980 and below that 10900 levels should act as a very strong support. Tomorrow is expiry day so market can behave erratically but after that we should be seeing a clear trending move (of course choppy moves and sudden fall of 150-200 can always be expected).For Aug series there is a strong OI in calls @ 11100 level and in puts @11000 level so probably expiry is going to be somewhere between 11K and 11100 levels.

Happy Trading!
 


 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 28th Aug 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11220)

Upmove Stretches: Nifty opened positive and traded in the positive territory through out the trading session. It closed at  11105 up 50 points.

Nifty traded positive but couldn't take out the previous resistance level of 11150-175. Last 2 times Nifty tried to cross these levels it failed and dropped lower hence some bit of hesitancy is expected around these levels. But the fact that Nifty is consolidating just below this 11050 is definitely a good sign for bulls.

We have been saying since last few days that there is a chance of Nifty hitting some kind of bottom around 10750 levels. Nifty did breach that level momentarily but again bounced back and is back above 11K levels in a flash. Usually that's how bottoms are made in markets, even before one can blink , bottom is hit and price moves back up again. Now in last 3 days Nifty has moved more than 350 points. Going forward 11200-220 is going to be a very crucial level. If Nifty can conquer 11220 then it could open gateways to much higher levels. Regular readers of this blog are aware that we have been bullish on the markets ever since it hit 10780 and highlighted few technical reason ( time cycles and the fact that weekly RSI had hit 33) to support our theory. We also mentioned that if certain things played out then could see a strong bullish move of 1500-2000 points from the recent lows. We still hold on to our view. However mind you, volatility could remain high and choppy moves could be seen in plenty.

In summary, keep an eye on 11175-11200, strong and sustainable move above this level will further strengthen our view and could push Nifty much higher from these levels on the other hand 10950-10900 should act as a very very strong support now and in case of a breach (chances look small) we could again dip towards 10800-750 levels.

Happy Trading!



 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 27th Aug 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11220)

Pullback Continues: Nifty opened strongly above 10900 but the weak global markets pulled it all the way to down 10750 before buying support once again pushed it back to 10900 and then to 11K levels. It finally closed at 11060 levels, up 230 points.

We had been mentioning a possibility of Nifty hitting some kind of bottom at 10650 and todays upmove goes a step further in strengthening our theory. A gapup opening was always expected today but the sellout in global markets ( led by US) muddied the water a little. Ideally speaking we would have preferred seeing a 'runaway' kind of gap today, where market opened strong and kept on moving up. The intraday ( in the first hour itself) fall from 10950 to 10750 has disturbed the pattern a little and a further fall towards 10800-750 is possible ( however the chances of happening so don't look so great).

Nifty has to sustain 11K levels and if it does that and goes on to break above 11100 & 11220 then we can safely assume that downside is done for the time being and market has opened another leg on the upside. Nifty might consolidate a bit around 11100-11500 levels before breaking towards higher level but more and more indicators are now pointing towards a break on the upside.

For now keep an eye of 1095-11K levels as this becomes a critical level for short term support and 11175-11220 on the upside above which medium term trend for Nifty will change to 'UP'.

Happy Trading!