Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 25th Jul 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11800)

 

Weakness Continues : Nifty opened positive around 11350 but soon bears pounced and pushed Nifty all the way down to 11230. It made some recovery towards the end and closed at 11270 ( down 60 points).

 

We had mentioned in the previous post that 11300-325 seems good support and its likely that market may try to hold around these levels and tries to push itself higher. We also suggested risky traders to buy ( small qty) around 11325 levels as we expected Nifty to touch 11400 ( and fill the gap). Nifty did bounce from 11320 to 11400 yesterday but today it broke 11300. So what to expect next?

 

Nifty may have broken below ( and even closed below) 11300 levels but 11300-350 is a crucial support so for a conclusive breakdown we need to see more weakness below 11300 levels and whether Nifty closes below 11300 again tomorrow. We had also mentioned 11250 to be the SL and though it was breached momentarily intraday, markets held on to it on closing basis. Now we need to see if Nifty tries to reclaim 11300 levels or goes on to make a new low.

 

Reason we are not sounding overly bearish inspite of a such a hectic fall in last 5-6 days is that even though the short term and medium term remains on the downside, the long term trend is still intact and Nifty is very close to crucial level for long term perspective. Unless 11100 is broken decisively ( pre election low) the long term stays intact and that's the reason we have been advocating buy ( for risky traders & in little qty only, conservative and less risky traders should stay out and wait for markets to reclaim 11525 levels before initiating long positions).

 

 Long positions entered around 11300-320 levels can still be held with a slightly revised SL of 11220 (below todays low) and if its breached then one should exit and tries to buy again around 11125-50 levels ( with a Sl of 11090). Now it may be possible that markets are changing long term trend and even 11100 will not be held but looking at charts right now, the chances of such a scenario playing out is looking a little less for now hence the risk reward ratio remains  favorable at these levels ( break of 11100 will change complete picture though). Having said this anything can happen in markets and its entirely possible that 11100 gets broken tomorrow itself.

 

In Nutshell, even though 11300 is broken today, we need to observe and see if the break is decisive and Nifty goes on to break todays low (11230) in which case we are probably heading to 11125-11150 levels which again is very imp level from long term perspective.

 

Happy Trading!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 24th Jul 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Up above 11900)

Lack of Confidence : Nifty opened flat at 11350 and dropped to 11320 levels, made a smart recovery to 11400 but couldn't sustain at higher levels and dropped to 11300 levels once again. It finally closed at 11330 down 15 points.

 

Yesterday we had mentioned that 11300-325 seems to be a good support for now and risky traders can initiate buy in small qty around this level. Today in the morning , Nifty touched 11320 and touched 11400 so there were some intraday points to be made. Again markets touched 11300 levels so if someone is still holding long position or initiated fresh long towards day close then he can continue to hold for now ( with a SL of around 11260)

 

Nifty was expected to fill the gap at 11375-11400 and while it did fill the gap today it failed to sustain above it however its too soon to judge if markets will attempt to cross 11400 again or not ideally it should but lets see what market has in its mind.

 

For a medium term perspective once 11525-11575 was broken our immediate target was around 11300-350 levels which is already achieved so now we need to observe if nifty is able to conjure some kind of support at 11300-11350 levels attempts to move higher. Nifty needs to move above 11525 and then 11600 levels to give some sign of trend reversal. If 11600 is crossed then retesting of 11800-900 is possible on the other hand if nifty start hanging around current levels then probably 11300 wont be able to support markets for long.

 

Happy Trading!!

 

 

 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 23rd Jul 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Up above 11900)

Weakness Continues : Nifty opened weak around 11350 levels and dropped to 11300 before some support came and lifted markets to around 11360 levels. It closed at 11346 down 75 points.

 

Once Nifty broke below 11575-11525 levels,  the 11400-350 levels was very much on the cards. We had been mentioning in our previous posts that if 11525 is breached then that would push Nifty to 11460 and below that to 11350 levels. Today Nifty tested 11300 and closed around 11350 levels.

 

For medium term perspective even though Nifty seems pretty weak, the 11300-350 area is very good support zone now unless markets wants to start a major trend on the downside, we should see some bit of support coming in at these levels. Continuous free fall in the markets is not expected from these levels (unless the market is planning a long term change in trend). Risky and smart traders can initiate some bit of buying around 11300-325 levels with a SL of around 11250  while conservative and less risky traders must wait for markets to stabilize first. 

 

Nifty today opened with a gap down and the gap is visible both on daily as well as weekly chart now its highly unlikely that the gap will remain unfilled for rest of the week & Nifty should ( again its just a probability and not a confirmation) go on and atleast fill the gap ( that means 11400+).

 

Today Nifty might have touched 11300 but the good thing is that the day low was touched in the first 30 mins and after that markets spent entire day defending that low. Now it remains to be seen if markets can defend 11300 levels in next few trading sessions as well and go on to hit 11400+ ( and cover the gap it created today).

 

From extremely short term point of view, we went bearish as soon as 11575-525 was broken and now at 11300 we are neutral as markets are not likely to break 11250-11300 in a hurry ( again just a probability)

 

In nutshell, though overall trend remains weak, to create fresh short positions one should wait for a bounce back and on the contrary risky traders can initiate some light long positions around 11300-325 levels (with a tgt of 11400+ &  SL of 11250 levels). If markets continues to show weakness from here then this view will not be valid and will have to review and analyze again.

 

Happy Trading!!

 

 

 

 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 22nd Jul 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Up above 12010)

Weakness to the Fore : Nifty opened positive around 11635 levels but immediately started falling and kept falling through out the day in astraight line, it made a day low of around 11400 and closed at 11420, down 180 points.

If Nifty had a bad day yesterday (fall of ~100 points) then it had twice as bad day today and fell more than 230 points from day high. Yesterday we had mentioned that there was some positive divergence on the short term charts and markets might attempt to hold 11575-580 levels. Well it did try to bounce back but the effort lasted just 30 mins and Nifty was down below 11580 levels (after testing 11640) within first 30 mins itself and once it broke below 11530-525 levels it was clear that this move was actually a fresh down leg and now that it had made a new low ( below 11460), same is confirmed.

In fact last 6 days rise ( from 11460-11700) has been completely retraced in just 2 days time. This in itself explains that markets are completely in downtrend now (We had also mentioned that continuous weakness below 11575 would indicate that corrective leg is over and fresh down leg has started).

Another point  worth noticing is that today Nifty has completely filled the gap which it had made on election day ( 11400-11691) though on Sensex its not 100% filled.  Now that we have made a new low below 11460 levels the next critical level to watch out for is 11325-350. Need to see if market tries to take support at these levels and attempts another shot towards 11700 levels. Continuous weakness from here and below 11325 levels could accelerate the fall & push Nifty to 11100-10900 levels.

In summary, the move was from 11460 to 11700 was indeed a corrective move which seems to have completed and Nifty has started a new impulsive move on the downside. No long positions are recommending now ( all long positions should have been exited as soon 11580 was taken out in the morning) and short positions can be maintained with a SL of around 11525 levels. Need to see if this impulsive move tries to find some support in the 11325-400 zone. Future trading strategies has to be built after seeing how Nifty behaves in 11350-400 zone.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 19h Jul 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Up above 12010)

Sharp Fall: Nifty opened flat but couldn't sustain its opening highs and kept on drifting lower. It broke below 11600 levels and touched a low of 11580 before closing at 11596 levels (down 90 points).

After giving two positive close above 11640 Nifty once again slipped below 11600 levels which is a negative sign. However its too early to say if the short term positive biasness or the pull back which started from 11460 levels is over now. If nifty continues to exhibit weakness below 11575-580 tomorrow then probably we can say that the corrective leg which began from 11460 levels got completed at 11700 levels and new leg on the downside has begun.

Inspite of a sharp fall today, we saw a positive divergence on hourly charts which is suggesting that markets might attempt to protect 11580-11600 however continuous weakness below 11580-11600 will push Nifty back towards 11460 and 11350 after that.

Like we mentioned yesterday, 11730-11800 is a huge gap down area and hence a big resistance so its natural for traders to be apprehensive around 11700 levels and for now the resistance seems to be acting strong. It remains to be seen if Nifty attempts another shot at 11700 and tries to take it out or keep falling from here.

In summary, for now even though Nifty has reacted from 11700 levels and closed below 11600 levels , we still need more evidence and weakness below 11575 to conclude if corrective leg is over. If Nifty holds around 11575 levels then it might attempt another shot at 11700 levels.

Happy Trading!

 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 18th Jul 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↓ Down (Up above 12010)

Positive Bias Continues: Nifty opened flat but went on to hit a higher high than previous day, tested 11700 levels and closed at 11690 levels, up 30 points.

Nifty now has given 2 positive close above 11640 levels which gives nifty some sort of positive bias (atleast for the very short term) but the short term can change anytime so one has to be cautious at current levels.

Last week when Nifty had crashed from 11800 levels, it had opened with a gap down and the gap stands at 11730-11800. Its natural for traders to be apprehensive in this zone and hence 11730-800 is likely to offer a strong resistance ( like 11400-11690 was offering support previously and even now). Nifty is now trading within 2  strong gaps one is bullish i.e, 11400-690 and other is bearish i.e, 11800-730. Going forward it will be interesting to see as to which gap Nifty decides to fill.

We have been warning caution since last few days against blind shorting (all our shorts were already covered around 11480 & 11575 levels) and continue to advise so. There are quite a few things that are suggesting that fresh shorts should not be taken at this stage but one should wait for markets to exhibit weakness first and then only go short.

In summary, as long as Nifty is showing strength and continue to hit higher highs, the short term bias remains positive but to change the overall trend to 'up' Nifty needs to conquer 11800 and after that 12K levels. If markets can  successfully close the bearish gap (11730-11800) level then that will the first indication that Nifty is ready to hit much higher levels. On the other hand, weakness below 11575 levels could push Nifty back to 11460 and then to 11350 levels.


Happy Trading!
 

Nifty Trade Update -8th Jul-11th Jul

Messages/trades we initiated during 8-11th Jul

08/07/2019, 09:23 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nifty 11700 sell 4 parts
08/07/2019, 10:57 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nifty 11650,  hold all shorts for now. Reversal has been very sharp so in all probability we r going below 11600 levels now.
08/07/2019, 13:07 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: nifty 11588 exit 2 parts short book profit
08/07/2019, 13:08 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Hold balance 2 shorts
08/07/2019, 14:20 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nifty 11544 hold 2 parts shorts. Margin call trigger likely in last hour
08/07/2019, 15:20 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nifty 11565,carry both parts shorts for tomorrow

09/07/2019, 09:16 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Good morning, nifty 11482
09/07/2019, 09:17 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Hold both parts short for now. Less risky traders can book some more profits
09/07/2019, 09:19 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Mkts r oversold so a pullback cannot be ruled out
09/07/2019, 10:52 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: nifty 11484 cover one more part book profit
09/07/2019, 10:52 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Hold just one part short (min qty)
09/07/2019, 15:20 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nifty closing flat. Carry one remaining short for tomorrow

10/07/2019, 09:17 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Good morning, nifty CMP 11553 sell 1 part
10/07/2019, 09:17 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Hold 2 parts short
10/07/2019, 09:38 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: nifty 11570 :sell 2 more parts
10/07/2019, 09:38 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Hold all 4 parts shorts
10/07/2019, 12:57 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: nifty 11482 exit 2 parts book profit
10/07/2019, 12:57 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Hold balance 2 shorts
10/07/2019, 15:24 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nifty 11490. Carry balance 2 parts shorts for tomorrow

11/07/2019, 09:26 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Good morning, nifty trading around 11530. Hold both shorts for now
11/07/2019, 15:10 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: nifty 11585 exit 2 parts bal short
11/07/2019, 15:10 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Position Nil
11/07/2019, 16:04 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: <Media omitted>
11/07/2019, 16:06 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Mkt has defended an imp trend line for 3rd day in a row plus crucial 11525 has been defended again (day low was 11520) will enter shorts again only once the weakness resurfaces

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