Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Nifty Outlook and Trend for 19th Jun 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑UP (down below 11550)

Range bound trading: Nifty opened slightly above 11700 and kept trading in a small range of 11680-11720 before suddenly dropping to 11640 levels in last hour of trade however it recovered immediately and closed at 11791, up 20 points.
 Nifty remains in a correction mode for now and there is no way to tell if this correction will further accelerate towards lower level or will finish around these levels and bounce back again to 12K levels. Currently both the options are valid but till the time Nifty start exhibiting strength it wont be wise to assume that correction is over. On the other hand as long as 11550 hold, this correction is likely to remain a temporary dip and there should not be any serious cause of concern for bulls.

Some accelerated fall was expected once 11800 level is taken out and we did see a sharp fall to 11650 levels after that. Nifty is making lower lows and lower highs ( today was the 5th consecutive day for lower high. This is a sign of weakness, to regain strength, Nifty must start making higher highs and higher lows. On weekly charts so far Nifty is making a ' bearish belt hold pattern' in which the opening rate on Monday was the highest point of this week so far. However there are still 3 days left in current week so the candle is likely to change.

Next few trading sessions could be interesting and throw some more light on which way Nifty wants to move but one thing is for sure, Nifty is now poised to make a big move. Its sitting at edge and near key pivotal points. It should be a matter of days before Nifty start taking making big trending move so its important that you remain on the right side of the market cause if market catches you on the wrong side & against trend then it can wipe your capital in no time.

Keep watching 11550 level for sign of support and immediate support level for Nifty and on the upside 11800-11850 will offer stiff resistance.

Happy Trading!




 
                                                                                                         

Monday, June 17, 2019

Nifty Outlook and Trend for 18th Jun 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑UP (down below 11550)

Weakness to the fore: Nifty opened down around 11800 levels and immediately started moving down. It kept drifting down and broke below 11700 levels in the last hour. It finally closed at 11672, down 150 points.

We have been warning caution since last few days and continuously saying that Nifty can correct or remain weak in near term and 11800 could be tested again and if that happens then probably 11800 won't hold as it has weakened considerably. Nifty broke below 11800 and the weakness which emerged after that is for everyone to see. We had also mentioned that gapdown opening is possible on Monday, though today wasnt exactly a gapdown, the end result is line with our expectations and prediction. The way Nifty had closed on Friday had clearly raised this possibility in advance. 

Now Nifty is in very critical zone, this area of 11550 to 11650 is the level to watch out for. Till this level holds, it wont be wise to assume that nifty upmove is over and a big down move has commenced. However break (and sustained trading) below 11550 will change the medium term to down and could invite further selling and weakness. After exit poll results, nifty had posted a huge gapup on intraday charts (11400-11600). If this gap area fails to provide support then there is a possibility that entire gap is filled (which means retest of 11400).

So for now, Nifty remains weak hence one should not be in a hurry to go long but wait to see if market takes support level and stablises around current levels and enter only when it starts exhibiting signs of strength.

Happy Trading!