Nifty View: Update for 15th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↑ UP

Market udate: Nifty opened weak and didn't trade in green even for a moment. Towards the mid session it threatened to break below 10700 but didn't and closed down almost 50 points down at  10746 levels.

Overall todays session was again in line with what has been happening since last 5-6 days. Only thing is Nifty didn't see any selling pressure in the last hour ( since last 5 days Nifty has been seeing a sell off after 2.30PM). We had mentioned in our post yesterday that we would like to see if Nifty takes support at 75-80% retracement level which is sitting at 10716-10692. Today market tested the exact 75% retracement level (10718) and managed a small bounce from there. Even though it wasn't much but atleast markets shown some bit of respect to it. So for now we are keeping the status unchanged.

Now we need to see if markets can build on something from here and try to salvage some of the lost pride. Nifty/Sensex have been falling since last 6 days and markets can not be so much one sided sooner or later a corrective bounce will come. Even the sellers looked tired today. We have been saying that even though markets are getting weaker by day they are lacking momentum. Today was no different.

All the negative things we mentioned yesterday about market stays intact even today and one more thing have been added to it. Oscillators and indicators have started turning down & in "sell" mode one by one. Still we believe that probability of markets bouncing from here ( even if its just a technical bounce) is open.We also saw positive divergence today with bank nifty which closed in  +ve territory

Technically no change in our midterm/near term outlook which we posted couple of days back. Nifty remains in a corrective leg ( from lows of 10K) and it seems some more parts to this corrective legs are still pending and Nifty will resume its downtrend only when all parts are complete.

You may ref http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/search/label/Nifty%20Specials for the detailed wave count and analysis.

Markets are very close to being in oversold territory so if one is planning a short then keep a tight stop loss as short covering/value buying can bring some relief . Fresh shorts are actually not recommended at these level.

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers through regular intraday whatsapp updates as to what needs to be done during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty calls/trading recommendation then you may subscribe using below link:

http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/02/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html

Happy Trading to you!!

Nifty View: Update for 14th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↑ UP

Market update: Nifty continued with its weak trend and inspite of a strong overnight rally by US stocks Nifty tanked and closed below 10800 levels.

We had mentioned yesterday that bulls have their back at the wall and one more nudge will probably push Nifty in the bearish zone. Although we did get that nudge today and Nifty even broke below its crucial support of 10800-10820 we still would like to see and observe markets a little more before we conclude that trend has indeed changed down. Reason for not doing so even now is the lack of momentum. We don't have the momentum which ideally we should have seen. Nifty has lots of things going against it, like:-

•  It has returned to the range it broke after 2 month of hardwork (back to below 10900 levels)
• Broke below 61.8% retracement level of the recent rise today ( 10787) though marginally and adjusted closed was just above it
• 4th consecutive day of lower low (closing below previous days low consistently)
• Breaking below previous week low ( 10822)
• Making top ( 11118) on a day of good news and +ve sentiments (rate cut)

Now all these things are definitely pointing in the direction that markets are weak and getting weaker by the day but still there are few things which are suggesting caution against going short at this stage,like-

• Lack of momentum: Momentum is missing for most part and if you analyze hourly chart you will notice that most falls are coming only in last hour
• Positive divergence in RSI ( which still continues on some time scales)
• PCR (1.2) dropping but continues to be in favour of bulls
• Lower VIX: Inspite of markets falling daily VIX is not budging and not moving up

Now we may ignore most things but lack of momentum is something which can not be ignored. When market falls without momentum its usually a sign of corrective fall. Now a corrective fall can extend and move a bit higher/lower than the expected levels but all corrective moves result only in one thing i.e. markets reversing when they are over. Now we are not saying with absolute surety that its a corrective fall, its just that the indications we are getting are suggesting and there is a possibility. Now market can start building momentum from tomorrow onwards and prove its not a corrective fall which can certainly happen but for now we need to see more evidence. There is no harm in waiting on sidelines if one is not sure.

We have seen that market broke below 61.8% retracement level (10787) today but it was not very convincing now we need to watch next critical support level ( 75%-80%) which  stands at 10716-10690. Now this level assumes lot of significance as the entire rally we saw ( 10583-11118) actually started from this level only when Nifty opened with a gapup at 10690 levels on 31st Jan.

So in nutshell, nifty continues to be weak and one should continue to be observant and watchful for some more time and if one must trade then trade with strict stop losses. We need to see if Nifty respect 10700 or even that is taken out in coming days.

Happy Trading!!

Nifty Short Term/Near term: wave count update

Wave count update for Nifty movement from the lows of 10k in Oct'2018

Like I mentioned previously too, entire rise from 10K is looking like a complex corrective which is clearly visible because of so many overlapping waves and on a bigger time frame this rise from 10k to present levels is "B" leg of a new corrective or "E" leg of an extracting triangle. For now lets assume its "B" leg of new corrective ( fall from 10750 to 10K level being the "A" leg as explained in the Nifty medium term outlook).

Now we have been saying that this B leg is developing as "7 legged diametric" pattern ( once this diametric is completed Nifty is likely to open a new leg downwards. However inspite of completing more than 2 months, this diametric is still ongoing. Currently there are 2 possible outcomes. lets discuss each possibility in detail.



Nifty

Option 1: One possibility is that "f" leg got completed at lows of 10700 (in Jan) and after that "g" leg is developing as an irregular corrective pattern. Now theoretically "g" leg can mimic "a" leg ( which measured 600-700 points). So its possible that G leg can touch anywhere from 11200-11400 before starting a new leg down. However if the fall continues and Nifty break below 10580 in next3 days then it would mean "g" leg got over at 11118 ( probability of this happening seems pretty low as of now)

Option 2: Another option is that "g" leg got over at 10987 as failure pattern and what followed after that ( fall from 10987-10583) was an "x" wave post which Nifty has opened another corrective. Now considering various factors this is looking like a more probable and acceptable count. Implications of market opening another corrective are more or less same as option 1 only thing is that in this scenario Nifty probably can spend a bit more time in this corrective move ( B leg can stretch for some more time and can even see slightly higher levels). Rise from 10583 to 11118 levels is looking like a impulsive move ( "A" leg of new corrective) and it even broke the range market has been trading in since last 2 months. Now the fall we are seeing ("B" leg from 11118 to 10820 today) is a mixed bag but it remains to be seen till what level it retraces the entire rise. At todays low of 10820 its still less than 61.8%. If Nifty fall further from here and retraces more than 61.8% ( 10787 levels) then probably this second corrective is developing as a triangle ( probably as ending diagonal) which means Nifty can still touch higher levels (11300-11400). However it may also  starts developing as contracting triangle in which case there will be no high ( 11118 will be top) but even then Nifty might still see 11K+ levels before starting the downtrend. However if 10787 is protected then probably its developing like a simple zig-zag which opens up a possibility of a sharp upmove from current levels.

So doesn't matter which way you see, there is still a possibility for Nifty to move up in near term ( anywhere from 11k to 11400) and someone looking to short ideally should wait for some more time. Current developments in market are not suggesting a "short and hold" scenario and there remains a possibility of nifty moving up sharply and trapping traders on the wrong side or market may just tire out traders by not giving breakout/breakdown ( or by entering into a new trading range) anytime soon.

Ever since Nifty hit 10800 in December, its giving a hard time to traders which is expected during a complex corrective. Whole purpose of a complex correction is to push traders away from markets but as the time is passing by, markets are indicating they are pretty close to finishing this complex corrective and getting into a trending move.

Nifty View: Update for 13th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↑ (UP)

Market update: Nifty continued with the weak trend and after spending most of its day trading flat, broke down in last hour and closed down 60 points at 10830 levels. 

As the days are passing by, the chorus on the street is growing towards bearish trend in Nifty and that Nifty has started a new leg on the downside. It could be true however till now ( inspite of last 3 continuous days of weakness) the overall structure remain intact by just a slim margin (though its weakening by the hour). Bulls have their back to the wall and one more nudge probably on the downside will actually push it in the bearish zone.

Last 3 days market has given a close below previous days which is actually a big bearish sign. Nifty has very good support at 10800-10830 zone and today Nifty has closed right at the support band. On some occasions its observed that when market closes exactly at the support band, a gap down or gap up opening is seen next day (not always but sometimes so wont be surprised if we see that tomorrow as well).

Major oscillators and indicators on daily charts continue to be in 'buy' mode ( by just a very slim margin) however shorter term indicators have slipped into sell zone which is keeping Nifty under pressure.

If Nifty is in uptrend then it shouldn't be spending too much time below 10900 levels now and it need to give a strong push on the upside pretty soon.Nifty needs to start closing above its previous day high and then go on to make a new high over 11100 levels. Failing to do so could mean that uptrend seems to have gotten over for now.

Even though Nifty has been falling consistently since last 3 days, the momentum shown in the last couple of days is not very convincing and we continue to see positive divergences which makes one question if its just a corrective fall. However please keep in mind that Nifty can still build momentum on the downside ( its not too late for that).

Like we said previously too, for now just be cautious and observant. Nifty looks ready to move in a strong trend and if you trade and get trapped on the wrong side then it will be very difficult to come out of it without suffering a big loss. So if you must trade then do it with small and strict stop losses.


You may follow us on Twitter: Nifty Trend @Niftytarget

Happy Trading!!

Nifty View: Update for 12th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↑ (UP)

Market update: Nifty again opened down at 10900 levels and even touched a low of 10860 in the first hour itself. However lack of follow up selling and lackluster trading saw index closing around 10890 levels ( down50 points).

Even though Nifty witnessed another weak session, the momentum on downside was missing today. Nifty made day low within first hour of trading and managed to protect that low throughout the day. We had mentioned in our last post that even though Nifty has weakened considerably, its still in a uptrend and its too early to conclude that a new down trend has started. Same view stands even today as well. Nifty has a strong support at 10800-10850 level and unless same is taken out by force and momentum, it wont be wise to assume that Nifty is done with the uptrend.

Looking only at 'prices' Nifty definitely is under pressure and even broke 10900 levels today. Resistance of 10900-10985 was broken by market after a long consolidation and prices have slipped again in the same range which definitely goes against bulls. However prices movement is just one of the factor and there are other factors too which are suggesting that Nifty can still move up from here. there are many traders who just trade looking at prices (i.e. if Nifty is 11100 go short & if nifty 10500 buy) which is not the right way to trade as there are plenty of things which changes over the time at same price band ( so same price which is  good shorting opportunity, becomes a good buying opportunity later).

Daily oscillators and technical indicators remains in the ' buy mode' and positive divergence with Bank Nifty continues. VIX remains low at 15 so overall its still a mixed bag out there. We have not seen conclusive evidence yet to confirm if a downtrend has started so we are keeping the near term trend as 'up' for now. However since today was second consecutive day where Nifty closed below its previous day low, one should continue to be watchful,observant and cautious for some more time. As per our analysis time for consolidation is already over and we are about to see a trending move pretty soon.

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers through regular intraday whatsapp updates as to what needs to be done during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty calls/trading recommendation then you may subscribe using below link:

http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/02/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html


You may follow us on Twitter: Nifty Trend @Niftytarget

Happy Trading!!

Nifty View: Update for 11th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↑ (UP)

Market update: Nifty opened weak today around 11000 levels and kept trading weak throughout the day and ended the day at 10943 (adjusted close while actual closing was around 10930 which was the lowest point of day).

Todays move was swift and had a lot of momentum but like we always say, one day fall in a bull trend ( or one day rise in a bearish trend) usually don't mean much and one shouldn't take them too seriously. Having said this todays fall has made a big dent in the overall structure of the last 7 day uptrend. When market breaks a range which was active for a long time then prices should trade above it ( previous resistance should become a support) but if prices fall back into the range once again then it raises a question if the breakout was a 'false breakout'. It will be interesting to see how Nifty react during  next 2-3 trading sessions. Continuous weakness from here below todays low and then breaking below 10800-10830 levels would mean the  upmove has ended and market has started a new leg on the downside.

On daily charts it appears as if Nifty has made an "Evening Star" pattern. Evening star pattern is a topping pattern comprises of three candlestick( its a 3 days pattern).  Day-1: sees a  strong Bullish move ( Wednesday we saw 132 point up move) Day-2: Doji type candle where market opens strongly but give up all its gain before closing ( yesterday market opened strongly but gave up all its gain before closing & closed flat) & Day 3: is a strong bearish candle which breaks the low of Day 1 candle and that's precisely what happened today (Nifty not only broke below yesterdays low, it even broke and closed below Wednesdays low).We had mentioned in our post yesterday that once market start closing previous days low consistently that's time one should be cautious. and today market not only closed below yesterdays low, it even broke below prior day close as well.

While there are plenty of indicators pointing towards a weak market there are many indicators which are suggesting that up move is still intact. short term RSI is giving a positive divergence and key technical indicators and oscillators on daily chart are still in 'buy' mode. Bank Nifty which had been giving a negative divergence till date has given a positive divergence today ( & it fell just 0.34% while Nifty had fallen 1.14%). So there is a possibility that move today was just a 'calibration' of indices or indices catching up with each other. Also inspite of such a massive fall the VIX didn't rise at all and still lying around 15 which is really surprising ( goes in favour of bulls). Even the OI in Nifty futures didn't see any increase ( on the contrary saw a fall which suggest long unwinding). PCR dipped slightly but its still in favour of bulls.

In nutshell, its a mixed bag out there. Though for now the uptrend remains intact, it has weakened considerably and is hanging by a thin thread. The risk on downside have increased manifolds since yesterday. Nifty need to make a strong recovery in next 1-2 trading session to cancel out the negative impact of todays fall. On the other hand continuous weakness below todays low and then breaking below 10800 level would mean the 'break out' we witnessed during last 2 days was a false breakout and Nifty has opened another leg down.

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers through regular intraday whatsapp updates as to what needs to be done during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty calls/trading recommendation then you may subscribe using below link:

http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/02/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html


You may follow us on Twitter: Nifty Trend @Niftytarget

Happy Trading!!
 

Nifty Trade Update -1Feb-7th Feb 2019

Below are some of the trades we did in 1st week of Feb ( these are not 100% of our trades in the period)


01/02/2019, 09:03 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Good morning, wait for next trade.

01/02/2019, 09:08 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: This time market is Carrying lots of force and momentum so chances of breakout have increased a lot.

01/02/2019, 09:16 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *nifty 10845 buy one part*

01/02/2019, 09:18 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *nifty 10865 buy one more part*

01/02/2019, 09:19 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Trade 1 active @ 10855 (2 parts)

01/02/2019, 10:02 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *nifty 10885 buy 2 parts*

01/02/2019, 10:02 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Now we have 2 trades active * trade 1 10855 2 parts* & *trade 2 @10885*
01/02/2019, 13:30 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: We remain bullish on the markets and todays breakout seems to be moving as per our expectations.

01/02/2019, 14:15 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *nifty 10870 hold all 4 parts*

01/02/2019, 14:16 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: If some one missed buying in the morning he may initiate now

01/02/2019, 15:12 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nifty 10900 hold all positional longs. Indications are we are going towards 11k+ now. Still dont leverage. Dont overtrade! (markets can turn and surprise anytime we cannot predict every move mkt is making in advance)
 
04/02/2019, 09:15 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Good morning. Hold positions

04/02/2019, 10:11 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nifty 10850 hold all 4 parts long.

04/02/2019, 11:59 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nothing to be done for now, keep Holding all longs.

04/02/2019, 15:31 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Carry all long for tomorrow

05/02/2019, 08:59 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Good morning, expect slightly positive open today. Most of asian mkts are closed today/tomorrow due to Chinese new year.

05/02/2019, 12:13 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Keep holding all longs

05/02/2019, 13:54 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nifty 10950 keep holding all 4 parts for now

05/02/2019, 15:27 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nothing to be done for now, have a good evening.

06/02/2019, 09:04 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Good morning, looks there will be another attempt to break above 10985 today. Hold positions. Will advise if we have to do a part exit/book profit.

06/02/2019, 09:26 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *nifty 11018 exit 2 part long*

06/02/2019, 09:26 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Confirmation : we have booked profit in 2 parts. Keep holding balance 2

06/02/2019, 15:13 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nifty trading around 11060. Nothing to be done for now. Carry balance long position for tomorrow.

07/02/2019, 09:01 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Good. Morning. Hold balance long (2 part). Will advise if we have to do anything

07/02/2019, 09:31 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *Nifty 11100 exit 1 more part*

07/02/2019, 09:32 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Hold just one part

07/02/2019, 09:32 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Confirmation we have covered 3 parts. Booked profit.

07/02/2019, 11:47 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *nifty 11115 exit balance part*

07/02/2019, 11:47 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Book profit

07/02/2019, 11:47 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *Position Nil*
(total point gained >250)

Note- Apart from these trades we also did few intraday/jobbing trades which is not included here

As you can see we keep guiding and advising our subscribers through regular intraday whatsapp updates as to what needs to be done during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty calls/trading recommendation then you may subscribe using below link:

http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/02/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html


You may follow us on Twitter: Nifty Trend @Niftytarget

Happy Trading!!