Nifty View: Update for 7th Dec 2018

Market Update: Nifty was totally in Bear grip today and momentum on the downside (which was missing yesterday) was clearly visible. Frankly speaking todays fall has come as a surprise to me as I wasn't expecting Nifty to go below 10750 and finally 10650 levels. this zone was a major resistance area for Nifty and it took more than 3 weeks for Nifty to cross this hurdle and once this was crossed I expected it to hold. But market always surprises and we should always be ready for all probabilities. So what does todays fall indicate? Does this mark the beginning of a new Bear trend? Probably no. Though Bears have surprised bulls with their power today, the overall structure still remains bullish. let me explain.

It took Nifty 5 days to touch 10930 from 10500 levels and till the time Nifty breaks 10500 in faster time the bullish trend stays (as per Neo wave, for new trend to begin the last move  should be retraced in faster time). Today was the third day of fall from 10900 levels. So if Nifty breaks 10500 levels tomorrow then we can say that Nifty has started a new leg downwards.

On daily chart Nifty is still making higher highs and higher lows which confirms that market is still in bullish mode. Fall stretching beyond here will definitely mean that things are changing. Also, on daily chart as well as hourly chart clear divergence is visible between RSI and Nifty and Nifty is oversold on short term charts. So it will be very tough for Bears to carry on with the same momentum from here.

So even though I exited our longs today at 10630 ( bought at 10650) I am still not in bear camp. Need to observe market behavior for next 1-2 days to take my next trading call. Todays fall has definitely changed and altered few wave counts I was assuming ( will try to post an updated wave count tomorrow).

So to summarize, Nifty is down but not out ( not today atleast). As a trader once you are with trend don't change your stand till you have conclusive proof. At the same a bigger mistake would be to keep sticking to your stance even when market has shown you otherwise. So for now we will stick to your original stand but will not hesitate to change once market start telling us differently.

Trading recommendation: Longs were exited today @ 10630 (bought at 10650) with a small loss of ~20 points. Due to gap down openings on last 2 days I couldn't exit as per original SL but when you are doing positional trading at times this happens. Now need to observe nifty for 1-2 days before taking a fresh call. I don't recommend going short or long at this point as Nifty is trading in no mans land and can move either way.

 

Nifty Trade Update - 6th Dec

Update (08:10AM): Nifty again likely to open with  a gap down today and below its support area of 10750. Since its a second consecutive gap down the opening rates becomes crucial today. If mkt is trading below its opening low after 9:45 (30 mins) then we exit else hold on.  Trading weak below its opening price will be negative for Nifty. However overall trend still remains up for Nifty.

Update 09:55 AM Nifty spot 10665 Not able to sustain above the opening lows (opening price is 10670-10700) and momentum is increasing on the downside however on short term chart indicators are suggesting nifty is in oversold territory. Hold on to your longs for now. Will keep updating. Need  a sharp recovery from here soon.

Update (12:35 PM):  Nifty spot 10665 Nifty is maintaining a trajectory below opening price ( that is definitely a negative sign). Next couple of hours (second half of the trading) is very crucial as it will decide the trend of Nifty going forward. Hold on to longs need to see how the second half is shaping up before taking a decision

UPdate 2.25PM : Nifty spot 10630 Exit longs. momentum is building on the downside. pls exit all longs

 

Nifty Trade Performance (Since Nov 2018)

Nifty Trade Performance

Nifty Trade summary

Last updated (till 14th Jan 2019)

Imp: We use 'final exit' level & not the 'recommended exit' level to measure our trade performance. Most advisors use highest point ( final exit or the recommended exit whichever is showing largest profit) to measure their performance. For ex Trade no.3 ( Buy @ 10655) Nifty had gone till 10900 and we had recommended an exit/part booking around those levels to less risky traders. We finally exited in small loss @ 10630 levels still we are showing the exit @ 10630 and not 10900.  

Note:

• Max open position at any given time is 4 Nifty parts (above example is assuming a trade of 4 lots)
• Each part can be 1 lot 10 lot or 100 lot for you (depending on your capital & risk appetite)
• All 4 parts may be either invested in one go or in instalments. Similarly exit can be in one shot or in instalments
• Capital required to maintain/trade 4 Nifty lots is around 3-4 Lac ( keep changing as per exchange requirement)

Nifty View: Update for 6th Dec 2018

Market Update:
Interesting day today. Market opened weak and kept trading in negative territory throughout  the day before closing around 80 points down to 10780 levels. Even though  Bears won today, looking at broader picture nothing much seems to have changed. Nifty is falling but the momentum is not visible on the downside and overall fall from 10950 levels seems like a corrective fall. We had a SL of 10775 ( for our longs initiated at 10650) and whole day market kept trading above 10775 ( broke it temporarily around 2:45 PM but the actual candle close on 30 min chart was above it) and in any case the actual closing of the day was above 10775 so we can carry the positions for now. Gap up/down days are always tricky to trade and one should carefully observe the momentum before taking a trading call on such days.

Technically speaking Nifty has a strong support at 10750-10830 levels which held on today. A break below todays low will warrant a change in overall strategy, however, if Nifty can hold this level ( probability is that it will) then we can soon expect a move up.

Trading Recommendations:
I updated the SL levels 2-3 times during the day in real time here, and for now I recommend that you carry your longs. As I mentioned Nifty has a strong support between 10750-10830 and stand will  be changed if Nifty breaks todays low. On the upside if Nifty crosses 10830-840 then I might add more longs. So keep watching this space :)

Nifty Real Time Trade update 5th Dec

SL (spot) adjustment:
Nifty might open with a gap down today because of overnight fall of 800 points in Dow and weak Asian Markets, but that doesn't change our strategy. Lower the SL to 10795 and exit if Nifty is trading below this level at 09:45 ( 30 mins into trade). No trading in first half hour.

Nifty short term movement might be impacted by Dow and global markets but overall the broad movement should remain same. However everything will change if weakness persists for entire day today.

Update (09:43 AM):  Nifty trading around 10800 ( above our SL of 10795) adjust SL to 10775. Usually SL should not be changed but in case of gap downs we might have to tweak it basis opening prices.


Update (03:00 PM): Market did go below 10775 levels but the actual candle close ( 30 min chart) was above this level (Currently trading around 10785). So long positions still stand. Keep carrying long positions. Will keep updating if there is any change. Ignore the trading of last 15-20 mins now and hold on to your long position.

 

Nifty View: Update for 5th Dec 2018

Market Update:
Nifty spent most of the day in narrow range between 10850-10900 before closing down around 15 points. Like I said in my previous post, Nifty is witnessing a bit of profit booking after running for almost 900+ point rally in last month or so. The last 300 point rally has come as a major surprise to many as majority was expecting Nifty not to cross 10700-10750 levels. But that's what markets are all about, they always surprise.

For now Nifty remains in a bullish trend but that doesn't mean we cant see a dip from here offcourse we can see a dip but it should be utilized to go long. When Nifty was at 10500 levels I had mentioned that Nifty is just setting itself nicely for a move up and now we have already seen a rally of 400+ from those levels. I feel nifty can go further up from these levels before a meaningful correction sets in.

Trading Recommendation:
Like mentioned earlier, keep holding the longs (initiated at 10650) with a SL of 10820. If this level is breached then sit out and wait for next trade.

For shorts, I have been saying this for last many days that no shorts are recommended at this level and one should get out from any short position he has in Nifty. You should get much better opportunity for shorting later.

Nifty View: Update for 4th Dec 2018

Market Update:
Nifty opened with a gap up of around 70 points (on the back of 500+ point increase in Dow futures and +ve Asian market cues) however couldn't sustain the momentum and drifted lower later in the day before closing almost at par. Todays gap up opening was used by many to book profits. There are many  smart investors who had gone long at 10500 levels and are now booking profits at higher levels (understandably so). Todays movement must be treated as a mere profit booking and nothing else, its healthy for Nifty to see some consolidation at this level. Now this profit booking may or may not continue for few more days. Important thing to note is that Nifty is still very much in bullish territory and we should not read too much into the fall from higher levels today. Call for the day is to maintain long positions with a stop of 10820 levels. After few days of consolidation we should see another leg up. As per my wave counts there is still some room left for Nifty to move up ( refer to my older posts for wave counts).

Trading Recommendation:
For now continue to hold the Long position initiated at 10650. SL is now 10820 (one candle close below on 15 min chart). If  10820 is breached then book profit and sit out and wait for next trade. We have already booked around 180 points profit in trade-1 last week ( 10600 buy and 10780 sell) and sitting on around 200 points profit on this trade. Continue this long position till SL hits. On the upside, I can give you many targets but those are not important so for now focus just on holding your longs.